Champions Again!

Our 2004 World Series apparel is not yet even tattered or faded, but their replacements are flooding department stores all over New England. Your Boston Red Sox are once again kings of the baseball world. Asking a sports fan to compare championships is like asking a parent to compare children. It can't be done. They are each special in their own way but one thing is certain.

You cherish them all.

As we bask in glory of another championship, now might be the time to describe how radically things have changed for Sox fans in the past four years. The euphoria of a second title can be enjoyed even more by remembering what life was like following this team P. C. (Pre-Championship).

To bring that point home, I have resurrected an email I sent to Kevin in New York and Corey in College four short years ago. I sent it in the despondency of Grady's Meltdown in Game Seven 2003. Reading it now, in the afterglow of a second World Series championship, is almost comical Like some bizarre satire you would read in The Onion or the National Lampoon. As you read it through, try and remember what life was like back then. How we felt. How we ached. How we always feared we would never get to embrace the joy of winning it all. Herewith, a father's lament. An artifact of our now happily forgotten tortured past.

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October 16, 2003

Good morning, boys.

I was hoping this day would never come, but unfortunately there is no way I could protect you from it. We have talked about the past; you have watched old tapes; you have seen the history on ESPN Classic. But this is different. You have now lived through it.

Last night was your initiation, your induction, your baptism. You are now a fully vested, card carrying, broken hearted member of Red Sox Nation. You must now lug the baggage that has been piled on for 85, no, now...86, years. The chain remains unbroken. To Enos Slaughter, Pesky "holding the ball," Denny Galehouse, Longborg on two days rest, Ed Armbrister, Larry Barnett, Bucky "Bleeping" Dent, Calvin Schiraldi, Bob Stanley and Bill Buckner we can now add...Grady Little.

I can not say if it is the curse or not, but it certainly is fate. Maybe it makes us stronger people, better able to handle the hard life of a New Englander. That is faint consolation, especially with the recent wounds still so fresh.

I would urge you to get out now, to spare you from further heartache, but I know it is too late. You now have shed blood. You can never get out. You are forever committed and scarred.

I apologize for starting you on this road. I probably should have covered your little heads with Yankee caps when we brought you home from the hospital. That was your only chance.

Hopefully this will all end someday. Maybe not in my lifetime, but hopefully in yours. Until then, enjoy the good times, for there will be many. But understand, as you now have fully experienced, that those good times will ultimately end. Usually tragically, twisted, unexplained...but never unexpectedly.

We move on. This too shall pass. Spring will come again. Pitchers and catchers will report. Split squad games will be played. The season will begin anew. The playoff chase will resume. The cycle will continue. But I will leave you with the story of Sisyphus who is fated for all eternity to push the boulder to the top of the hill only to have it roll back and crush him on the way back to the bottom. We almost pushed the boulder over the brink this time, but alas we have been run over...again.

We must trudge down to the bottom of the hill once again. The boulder awaits. Let us pick ourselves up and in few months, begin another push.

Love,
Dad
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I share that letter with you not to bring you down, but instead to add perspective. The win in 2004 broke the back of the pain in that letter. The 86 years wasn't a curse, but it was something. Something awful that all Sox fans lived through.

My overwhelming feeling after Foulke softly tossed "the ball" to Mientkiewicz that night in St. Louis was relief. Happiness yes, but mostly relief. I spent that entire post season hoping we didn't lose. Knowing we had a chance. Especially after the comeback against the Yankees, my only thought was that I couldn't bear to go through another hearbreaking loss.

Which brings us to last night. That is the biggest difference between 2004 and 2007. In 2004 we had melodrama, Greek Theater, hopes and prayers from beyond the grave, decades of angst all rolled into one. In 2007, we simply have the best baseball team on the planet, playing their best at the right time.

No ghosts to exorcise. Just an exciting display of hardball from a finely balanced blend of youth and experience jelling to win 11 games, seven in a row, to take home a richly deserved trophy.

In 2004, it was about the past. In 2007, it's about the present and future. No baggage, no tears, no emotional release. Just enjoyment and pride, a fist pump for a solid team that led basically from start to finish. For a team that finally outlasted the Yankees in the regular season (and yes I think that means something.) A team that dug out of a 1-3 hole against a talented Indians club. A team, in this way like the 2004 bunch, that faced iminent playoff death, survived and then would not be denied. The Rockies, this year replacing the Cardinals in the role of hapless foil, falling like paper mache before the rolling Sox juggernaut.

So enjoy New Englanders. Be proud of this team. They gave us a great ride all summer (although we always found an never ending font of things to complain about). They did it again. We are champs once more.

Rejoice.

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Show Me The Money

Red Sox Nation is rolling to the Rockies and most of the fan base is expecting them to return to Boston with their second World Series championship in the past four years. The Rox came in on a roll, riding a magic carpet ride through what increasingly is looking like a vaporous National League Playoffs.

On the field, this appears to be a mismatch. There is little mystery about why that is the case. Just look at the team's payrolls.

As the stunned sports columnists in Denver shake off the pixie dust from the amorphous Rockie run of 21 of 22 and ten straight against clearly inferior competition, they are beginning to hint at what an unfair fight it is, given the disparity in payrolls. I can understand that. I have played that card myself in relation to the Yankees even though a Sox fan complaining about the Yankee payroll is patently absurd.

And as much as we want to say it ain't so, it is. The Sox $142 milion payroll is almost three times the size of the Rockies $50 million. The starting nine man Sox lineup that started the first two games cost John Henry $74 million. The Rockies starting nine? $25.5 and $16.6 of that is Todd Helton!

The four man starting rotation the Sox roll out is worth $26.2 million, or almost four times the Rockies four man group which clocks in at $7.8. Interestingly enough, the key pitchers in the Sox bullpen, Paplebon, Okijima, Timlin, DelCarmen and Lopez are earning $5.1 million. That is actually LESS than the Rockies bullpen crew of Corpas, Fuentes, Heges, Affeldt and Morales which comes in at $5.6.

So what does it all mean? Mostly that Theo has more money to bury his mistakes. If you look at the everyday lineup, Pedroia, Youkilis and Ellsbury together make about a million or $500K less than Kazuo Matsui. The Sox legendary 3-4 of Manny and Papi pull in $30.3 million, but the Rockies thumpers, Holliday and Helton bring down $21 million. It's when you get to the bottom of the order where you see a ridiculous disparity. Drew (6), Tek (7) and Lugo (9) haul in an unbelievable $33.7 million. Compare that to Hawpe, Tulowitzki and Spielborg who combined earn $1.1 million or approximatley ONE THIRTIETH of the Sox trio.

So you would think with those kinds of differences, the Sox should be that much better. In the first two games, they have been. But the beauty of baseball is that the players do not bring their paystubs out to the field before they play. It's what they do on the field. And although the Rockies lineup has looked completely feeble against the juggernaut Sox, they could wake up at any time. Especially at home with their season on the line.

You have to feel good about the Sox chances, but don't be lulled into a false sense of security just because the Boston boys have bigger wallets. With the enigmatic Dice K and the Human Adventure Jon Lester going in the next two games, there is a distinct possibility that Ace Beckett may be called upon to pitch another pivotal game five with the series tied at 2-2.

The Sox still have some playing to do. And the size of their salaries won't help them one bit.

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A look forward.

With one victory firmly in hand, Sox fans around the world can start to breathe a little easier regarding the Olde Towne Team's chances in the 2007 World Series. As the old saying goes, however, momentum is only as good as the next day's starter; no one should know this better than the Colorado Rockies, who have now won 21 of their last 23 games and find themselves down one game to none in the Series.

So will the scrappy upstarts from the senior circuit be able to get on a hot streak before next Wednesday, or will your Boston Red Sox be able to close the door and establish the American League dominance that has become painfully obvious to the rest of the country?

Let's look at what will be the deciding factors for both sides.

For the Colorado Rockies...
1.) Ubaldo Jiminez! Josh Fogg! Aaron Cook! These three men are the starting pitchers standing between the Rox and a broom-assisted elimination. Not exactly Koufax and Drysdale, to be sure, but you have to think they'll be more effective than Jeff Francis. On the other hand, they put up ERAs of 4.28, 4.94, and 4.12, respectively...and Aaron Cook hasn't throw a competitive pitch since August. Hmm.
2.) Matt Holliday and Todd Helton. These guys are both very good, as my fantasy teams from the past five or six years can attest. Unfortunately, I'd never actually seen Holliday before last night in my life, despite the fact that he's already accumulated 103 homers and a .380 OBP in his first four seasons. Todd Helton, on the other hand, is finishing up his eleventh season as the undisputed "Only Guy You've Ever Heard Of From The Rockies."
3.) Coors Field and Rocktober!!! I've never believed in the widely-held theory that home-field advantage is most important in basketball, and this series could be Exhibit A in my defense. Not only will the absence of the designated hitter dramatically change the lineup that won the Sox 96 regular season games, but the physical playing surface features a significantly different atmospheric pressure. The wildcard in Denver will be the hometown fans, who heard about the Rockies' success during halftime of last weekend's Broncos/Steelers game. Will the team with a storied history stretching back as far as the feature film Jurassic Park have its fans riled up and ready to go, or will they go more in the direction of the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks and resort to explaining the rules of baseball over the loudspeakers between at-bats?

And for your Boston Red Sox...
1.) J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo. The poster children for the big-ticket Sox have led to many angry phone calls from Tom in Boston, but their timely resurgence could be quickly rewriting the history books. I've been saying all along that Drew would produce a hit or two in the postseason that would be replayed endlessly for the next twenty-five years, to the point that Sox fans of the future would reflect on the 2007 season and say "Man, J.D. Drew was a great signing for that club." He already has one of those hits (the Game 6 grand slam), and I wouldn't be suprised to see another one in the next week or so.
2.) Jon Lester. Thanks to Tim Wakefield's ailing back, Lester will probably be getting the nod for a Game 4 start in Denver. The silver lining of this decision is that we'll probably get to see another Josh Beckett start. The Sox unfortunately don't have much of a choice in the matter, however, and Lester will be forced to try out his Houdini act on the grandest stage of them all. Let's just put it this way: How many great pitchers can you think of who are famous for working out of jams on a regular basis? That's right, none, because they don't find themselves in jams in the first place. Lester doesn't throw strikes and subsequently finds his pitch count pushing the low 100's after 4 2/3 innings of work. A pleasant suprise from Mr. Lester on Sunday night would be most welcomed, but I won't be holding my breath.
3.) Clint Hurdle. Perhaps the biggest asset the Sox bring into this series is the managerial acumen of Mr. Hurdle. We've already seen his genius at work in Game One; whether using a backup outfielder as the DH in the number 9 slot in the batting order, playing the infield in in the second inning of a two-run game with Manny Ramirez at the plate, issuing two intentional walks in the first four innings, or burning the fifth starter and secret weapon in the fifth inning of a five-run game, Hurdle is obviously doing his best to get noticed. Let's hope he can keep it up.

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Pennant Fever!

Well they did it. And they did it impressively. 30-5 in the three elimination games and 23-4 in the final two in Boston. Despite the lopsided scores, the games were tight and the Sox stepped up. Another flag, the fifth in my lifetime and a second trip to the World Series in the past four years. It doesn't get better than that.

So as we wait for Game 1, we have a couple of days to bask in the afterglow. The tension that we have been living through since the Sox fell behind 3-1 last Tuesday has been temporarily lifted. We are the American League Champions of 2007!

Ok, that's enough. Now on to the Rockies to seal the deal.

What do we know about the Colorado Rockies? Not much.

They play in the clearly inferior National League, but have been on an unbelievable run winning their last ten games in a row and 21 of their last 22. Can they be stopped? Hopefully so.

So herewith a few tidbits about the upcoming battle with the rolling Black and Purple.

1. The Rockies, as hot as a pistol, have not played a game since October 15. That will be a 10 ten layoff. No matter how much momentum you have, that will certainly be a factor.

2. Remember when you were young and were playing by yourself bouncing a rubber ball off a wall and playing imaginary games with imaginary teams? When I did it, I used to make up names for the players, the crazier the better. I think someone did that with this Colorado team. Yorvit Torrealba, Troy Tulowitzki, Josh Fogg, Ubaldo Jiminez, Manny Corpas, Kaz Matusui. No way those are real names. The best part will be listening to the growing-feebler-by-the-minute Tim McCarver hurt himself trying to remember and pronounce this group. Remember, he once called Bronson Arroyo Brandon. How do you think he will do with Ubaldo Jiminez and Troy Tulowitzki? Should be a laff riot.

3. The Rockies pitching staff looks weak on paper but has been invincible in the post season. Game 1 starter Jeff Francis, Fogg and Jiminez all had ERA's over 4.00, IN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE FOR GOD'S SAKE! And keep in mind that means the pitcher hits ninth and the NL version of Julio Lugo/Coco Crisp bat 8th. So if they are over 4.00 against 7/9th of a lineup, how do you think they will do against the Sox. (And no snide remarks about a lineup with Lugo and Varitek being no better).
Unfortunately, this could be a tough matchup for the Sox in terms of styles of pitchers. Francis is a 6'5" lefthander who induces grounders, something that has baffled Sox hitters all season. Think Andy Petitte. Franklin Morales is another left hander with a low 90's fastball with great control, another Sox-killer type hurler. Lefties are hitting .129 off him so Papi and Drew (Kielty time?) could be in for some trouble. Fogg is a soft tossing right hander and righties are hitting .305 off him so he could be face some difficulty with Manny, Pedro, Youk and Lowell. Jiminez is a right handed flamethrower with a 99 MPH fast ball. Think Fausto Carmona. (See games 2 and 6, ALCS). I'm in for that.

4. The Rockies can hit. They took two of three from the Sox in June, as EVERYONE is reminding us. Matt Holliday (.340, 36 HR, 137 RBI) is a legit NL MVP candidate and he is surrounded by Todd Helton (former batting champ), Tulowitzki (24 HR, 99 RBI) and Brad Hawpe (116 RBI). Helton and Tulowitzki have been slumping in the postseason, so let's hope that continues.

5. The Luck Factor. Baseball is a game of breaks. From Game 2 through 4, the Indians got every break in the book as they galloped to the 3-1 lead. Starting midway in Game 5, the breaks started to go the Sox way, and things were in full Red Sox Horseshoe Mode in Games 6 and 7 (see two ground balls taking bad hops off the lip of the infield). To win 10 in a row and 21 of 22 you have to have a boatload of luck and good breaks. That's good. The Rockies used it all up in the NL playoffs. Everything evens out over time, and there's no way Colorado can stay lucky through the World Series as well.

Bottom line? I was three for four in the LDS missing only by picking Philly over Colorado. I was one of two in the LCS, missing only by picking Arizona over Colorado. So the third time's the charm. I think the superiority of the AL wins out and the Sox finally turn the Cinderella Rockies into pumpkins and fittingly, it will take place on Halloween night. Sox in 6.

Let's go get another one.

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Here we are.

Well, they took it one game at a time, and won them both. Now we find ourselves in a familiar position - Game 7. Momentum now resides with the Olde Towne Team, but we are left to wonder if that will be enough to punch their ticket to the World Series.

I'd love to analyze all the matchups and breakdowns of tonight's game, looking for any keys or indicators that could provide an insight to the climactic game, but quite frankly I'm too jittery.

When the Sox were down 3 games to 1, I wasn't all that upset; during the first half of this series, the Sox were playing the same type of baseball they had tended to play during their slumps throughout the season. While others called for wholesale changes, I hoped Tito would hold the line with the personnel decisions under the assumption that "you have to dance with the girl that brought you," and that girl has been looking good for the past two games.

When the lineup becomes Ortiz, Manny, and seven automatic outs, its tough to squeeze out a victory. But look what's happened the past two nights - Pedroia and Youkilis getting some breaks at the top of the lineup, Lowell providing some cagey veteran experience in the five hole, and even the much-maligned J.D. Drew slugging a game-breaking homer to blow open Game 6 in the bottom of the first inning.

(Incidentally, I told you so. I had a feeling Drew would erase five months of frustration will several well-timed hits. He's provided at least one. Let's see if he's gonna give us any more at the best possible time.)

When the lineup is producing, they will score runs. When the pitchers are tossing like Beckett and Schill did the past several nights, they will shut teams down.

But has Daisuke Matsuzaka learned enough since Game 3 to keep the Sox alive tonight deep into the ballgame?

I've heard a lot of people thinking Matsuzaka will join the parade of redemption that marched through Fenway last night (Drew's grand slam, Gagne's clean inning, Ellsbury taking Crisp's place in the lineup, Lugo's 2-RBI double). Some have predicted Matsuzaka will spin a seven-inning masterpiece, channeling the young Japanese prodigy that tossed 17 innings and 250 pitches of championship ball in high school.

I'd be happy with five solid innings and a lead, then Beckett for two, Okajima in the 8th, and Papelbon in the 9th.

Pennants are few and far between in the world of major league baseball. The Sox have one in their grasp. Either way, this Game 7 will be discussed for years and years to come. Hopefully it will be a sweet memory instead of a bitter one.

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It's the Pitching, Stupid

And so we live for another day. The Dead Sox are alive. So what is the difference between the listless team that sleepwalked through two dreadful losses in Games 3 and 4 and the vibrant ball club that bounced back with season saving 7-1 win last night? No surprise. The pitching of Josh Beckett

This is no great revelation by the way, but baseball now and forever has been controlled by the pitching. Think of the great baseball cliches:

- Good pitching beats good hitting.
- Momentum is only as good as the next day's starting pitcher
- Good pitching makes good coaching (I think I made that one up, but it's my favorite)

Any doubts that pitching is the key to winning baseball were erased in the events surrounding the ALCS this past week. With Josh Beckett on the mound, the Sox looked unbeatable, which they have been. Two starts. Two wins.

With the Three Cabelleros (Schill, DiceK and Wake) the Sox have looked like a lackluster group of futile banjo hitters. Three starts. Three losses.

The fact is the lineup is what it is, as Kevin in New York rightfully points out. It has its strengths and weaknesses. Sometimes it will click, and at other maddening times it will get shut down by distinctly average pitchers like Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd. Yes we (me?) can scream about "shaking things up" to get something going (and who can argue that Coco needs to be put out of his misery soon), but the reality is that like most teams, and this Red Sox team especially, will go only as far as their pitching will take them.

Let's go to the numbers.

Josh Beckett in his two starts has pitched 14 innings, given up 9 hits, 1 (ONE!!!) walk and 3 runs for a sparkling ERA of 1.93. Schilling, Matsusaka and Wakefield in their three starts have combined for the exact same 14 innings, but they have allowed 20 hits, 4 walks and 14 runs for a dismal ERA of 8.99. Is it any wonder we are losing the series 3-2?

So that brings us to Saturday night? What can we expect? Is the season going to end or are we going to a Game 7?

Well, as can see by the above, that will depend on Mr. Schilling. With three outs to go in the win on Thursday night, Schilling posted on Sons of Sam Horn game thread. His message?: "It's on bitches."

Here's hoping he can back that up. The Big Schill has proven to be one of the best pitchers on the biggest stages. The stage could not be any bigger that it will be on Saturday night at Fenway. After a clunker in game two, number 38 HAS to come up big in another season saving game. If he can baffle the young Indians with his new style, the Sox will live to fight another day, regardless of the futility of the bottom of the order. If not, the season will end on the Fenway lawn sometime after midnight on Saturday.

It's that simple. Let's hope Curt has another big game in that right arm. We need it now.

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It is what it is.

However frustrating these past playoff games have been, I have found it very difficult to be too upset when the final outs have been tallied. The fact of the matter is none of this should be terribly suprising to anyone that watched this team all year. This team is this good, for better or for worse.

Maybe this is just what life is like in the post-2004 era, but I'm not tearing my hair out about these losses. Its not like we've been robbed or had our hearts ripped out of our chests by a backbreaking moment yet. The team put up a ton of runs at Fenway in both games played there, as they have done all year, then the bats went quiet against two pitchers they probably should have hammered, as they have done in stretches all year. David Ortiz can look locked in one minute and completely feeble the next, as he has done all year. I keep rooting for J.D. Drew to make that one huge game-changing hit, and he never does, just like he has done all year.

Its not like the team has showed up in Cleveland and laid an egg. Does anyone think this team is vastly underperforming? Our 2, 3, and 4 starters couldn't get out of the fifth inning, but remember that Tito is running with a much shorter hook in the postseason than he would during a regular summer contest. We had every chance to win Game 2, had little chance to win Game 3, and watched an impressive Tim Wakefield performance get wiped off the board as he was dinked and dunked to death in Game 4.

They are who they have been all year, and it is for that reason that I am against "shaking up" the lineup. You remember they were frustrating all year, but you also should remember that frustration was accompanied by the best record in Major Leagcue Baseball. As the old saying goes, you have to dance with the girl that brought you; this team got this far with this lineup, and to break from that now is, in my opinion, reactionary and short-sighted.

So the Sox have at least one more game to play, with elimination staring them full in the face. Being down 3 games to 1 against a team as good as Cleveland is not the best place in the world to be. But at times like this, remember what Kevin Millar said when the '04 Sox were down 3-0 to a great Yankees team.

"Don't let us win tonight...This is a big game. They've got to win it because if we win we've got Pedro coming back tomorrow and then Schilling will pitch Game 6 and then you can take that fraud stuff and put it to bed. Don't let the Sox win this game."

Well, the Sox already have one win in this series. We have Beckett coming back tomorrow. We've got Schilling in Game 6. After that...who knows.

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Time for Drastic Measures

I started writing this after watching the non-Ortiz-Ramirez-Lowell portion of the lineup dribble into three feeble outs on 10 pitches in the top of the fifth. Down only 2-0 at the time, it felt like 20-0 since the once again ice-cold Sox lineup was making Jake "6-9, 4.32 ERA" Westbrook look like the white Bob Gibson. When Dice K imploded for another pair of runs as he continued his now seven month "adjustment" to Major League baseball it was obvious this one was over and the Sox were about to go down 2-1.

It's clearly time for a major shakeup if there is any hope of saving the postseason.

I had a bad feeling about this game all day. Not really a "bad" feeling, but an empty one. Something was sucked out of me after watching "Mo" Gagne, "Larry" Lopez and "Curly" Lester nyuk, nyuk, nyuk that game away in the 11th Saturday night. I felt hollow, and watching the Sox play like sleepwalkers in Game Three, I think they have the same feeling. So herewith is my "To Do" list for Game 4 if the Sox are to continue playing beyond this series.

1. Start Josh Beckectt in Game 4. Tito says he doesn't want to do this because it would be a "panic" move. I don't know about you, but this looks like a perfectly reasonable time to panic. We have just endured two games where the Sox starters couldn't get out of the fifth inning. So what do we do to end this streak? Hand the ball to an ailing Tim Wakefield who is unpredictable when he is going good but hasn't pitched an effective game in over a month? Holy Smoke! Why not just start Eric Gagne? Plus keep in mind that with Wakefield you get a side order of Mirabelli, so an already wet noodle lineup might get weaker, if such a thing is possible. (Although watching tonight's episode of "Tek's Greatest Popups" tells me Belli might actually be an upgrade). Make up a story, say Wakefield is hurt, give him a cup of soup, a gold watch and have him take a nice comfy seat at the end of the bench. Starting Beckett is the only move here and Theo or the Trio better make Tito do it.

2. Pray for rain on Tuesday. The forecast calls for possibility of rain, and that would be a godsend for the Sox. It will allow Tito to bring back Beckett on regular rest eliminating the one valid reason for not starting him in Game Four.

3. Start Jacoby Ellsbury. When the Sox were playing like walking corpses in September, Ellsbury provided a spark and no one can deny that the morbund Sox lineup is in desperate need of a shot of something. I don't care who he plays for...Crisp or Drew..it doesn't matter since they both have been as effective as the T at rush hour.

4. Have Ellsbury lead off. Dustin Pedroia has been struggling so it's time to take some pressure off. Have the speedy Ellsbury, who in case you have forgotten, hit .361 with a .390 OBP in September. Let Pedro hit eighth which might give some pop to the bottom of the lineup.

5. Say a novena that someone other than Ortiz-Ramirez-Lowell can get a hit. The way the other 2/3's of the lineup has hit, I don't know why the Indians' pitchers don't just intentionally walk those three every time up. The rest of the lineup as been a disaster.

(5 innings later.....)

Okay. So I waited until the end of the game, hoping I could scrap this entire post and write about an exciting come-from-behind Sox win. Didn't happen as I knew it wouldn't. 4-2 final. The cherry on the top of this Excrement Sundae was watching Lowell, Drew and Tek make Borowski look like Mariano Rivera in the ninth.

In our post game recap, Kevin in New York and I got into a heated exchange regarding making the above mentioned changes. I'm sure you are shocked that his feeling is that this team is what we saw. They will score 10 runs one night and get completely shut down the next. He is willing to wait it out and let them either come out of it or not. I would opt for the shakeup route.

Unfortunately, I believe Tito agrees with him. If so, tomorrow night is the key to the postseason. If Wake comes up with the miracle start they tie the series with Beckett on Thursday. If Wake implodes like Schilling and Dice K, I fear it's curtains.

Let's go Tito. Do the right thing.

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Can't win them all.

Baseball is a game of probabilities, and Cleveland manager Eric Wedge went out of his way to minimize his opportunities as much as he could on Saturday night by green-lighting a series of questionable strategies in Game 2 of the ALCS.

Unfortunately, he couldn't screw up enough decisions to cost the Tribe the game.

A lot of Wedge's calls were typical boilerplate "old-school baseball" decisions, many of which have been proven statistically inefficient but are still regularly used because "that's how its always been done." Mercifully, Terry Francona is a next-century manager, because I would be pulling my hair out if he pulled some of the garbage we witnessed from the lucky Wedge last night.

Let's take a look at some of these decisions.

*Second batter of the game, top of the first: Grady Sizemore led off the game with a double. Sizemore is fairly quick on the bases; its more than likely he'll score on a hit out of the infield. Wedge elects to have his number 2 hitter, Asdrubal Cabrera, bunt Sizemore over to third. The only reason you would do this is in the hopes that the #3 hitter, Travis Hafner, hits a sacrifice fly. Why not hope Cabrera or Hafner can get a hit? Because bunting is "how its always been done." Compounding the mistake, Cabrera pops up the bunt to third, giving us the gift out without even picking up the base. Thanks, Eric.

*Fifth inning: Starter Fausto Carmona hit his 100-pitch limit one batter into the fifth inning and was lifted in favor of Rafael Perez, Cleveland's stud set-up lefthander. This is actually a solid move - use your best pitchers to choke off the opposition's best chances to score. Perez, who put up a 1.78 ERA over 60 innings this season, had a bad sequence of batters (ground out, homer, homer, single) and Wedge goes back to the bullpen and ends Perez's night. They aren't playing tomorrow...why wouldn't you leave Perez in to end the inning? Jansen Lewis, of course, came in and induced an inning-ending double play. As they say, even a broken clock is right twice a day.

*Seventh inning: Firstly, Lewis started this inning, marking his third inning of work on the night. Rafael Betancourt, the Indians' top right-handed setup man, came in with two outs in the inning. Why push the 23-year old Lewis (under 30 IP this season) and risk having Betancourt come in with runners on base? Of course, Lewis shut down both guys he faced (Youkilis and Ortiz), and Betancourt punched out Manny. Apparently broken clocks can be right three times a day.

*Bottom of the 9th: Travis Hafner, the most dangerous hitter on the Indians, singles with two outs against Jonathan Papelbon. Eric Wedge, never imagining that Hafner's slot in the lineup could come up to the plate again, pinch runs for him, taking Hafner out of the game should we go to extra innings. And when Hafner's slot did come up in the 11th inning, the best available hitter off the Cleveland bench was a past-his-prime outfielder who hit .251 this year. Of course, that ended up working out too, despite Wedge's best efforts.

*Bottom of the 10th: Tie game in extra innings, where one swing of the bat sends everybody home. Your opponents are bringing up three of the most locked-in, clutch hitters in the game today - Ortiz, Ramirez, Lowell. Your closer is up and ready in the bullpen. Who do you go to in the hopes of pushing this game into the 11th? That's right - the middle reliever who put up a 4.68 ERA this year. Unreal.

Of course, all of these moves worked out as favorably for Cleveland as they possibly could. Terry Francona, on the other hand, made all the right moves last night and has nothing to show for it.

(Incidentally, wouldn't you have felt much better last night if Julian Tavarez was in the bullpen rather than Jon Lester? I know Lester is a better story and everything, but he is terrible out of the bullpen and, quite frankly, only a little less terrible when he's starting. Everyone will be piling on Eric Gagne today for allowing the hit and the walk to start the 11th, but how much blame will fall on Lester for surrendering the final four runs of the inning? Tavarez could have started the 11th and been ready to pitch into the 16th if necessary.)

Fortunately for the Olde Towne Team, Eric Wedge will be here all week, and I doubt he learned anything last night. Let's hope the bats can keep producing and we can get some top-shelf pitching performances from the always exciting Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield.

And look at it this way: if we can split these next two games, this series becomes a three-game series and the Sox have home field advantage. And you can be pretty sure that this series will be coming back to Fenway before all is said and done.

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Another Opening, Another Show

As they say on Wall Street, past performance is no guarantee of future returns, but one thing is certain: last night's "contest" was a coolly efficient surgical vivisection of a very good Cleveland Indians team by your Boston Red Sox.

This was easy. Too easy, almost, but we'll take it. Billed as a pitcher's duel between Josh Beckett and C. C. Sabathia, this one turned into a breezy 10-3 one-sided rout. Beckett was impressive again, while Sabathia got his prodigious backside kicked from the Monster Seats to Pesky's Pole.

The Sox looked like a team that has been there before, which they have been, while the Indians very much looked the part of a team that was blinded by the bright spotlights. From Sabathia on down, they clearly looked intimidated by the big stage and had that haunted look of a deer in the headlights.

If you were to map out the perfect plan to beat the Indians, it would look an awful lot like what the Sox did last night.

1. Work the 19 game Ace to get his pitch count up and ultimately out of the game. Check. C. C. walked five hit one, and was out of the game in the fifth after 80 pitches.

2. Get into the bullpen to start wearing it out. Check. Eric Wedge had to use four relievers including the eminently hittable closer Joe Borowski.

3. Keep tablesetters Grady Sizemore and Azdrubal Cabrera off base. Check. Sizemore was 0 for 5 with 3 strikeouts and Cabrera was 1 for 3 with 1 strikeout.

4. Control big boppers Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez and Ryan Garko. Check, kinda. The trio was 2 for 9 but one of the hits was a first inning homer by Hafner that gave the huge home crowd a brief pause early on.

5. Get the middle of the order going. Check, Check. Manny and David had a perfect 1.000 OBP. Ten at bats. Ten times reaching base. A combined 4 for 4 with five walks, an HBP and three RBI's. It doesn't get much better than that.

6. Finish the game with a "Gagne". Kevin from New York has now christened the type of appearance the faltering Frenchman made last night a "Gagne" as opposed to a save, win or hold. A "Gagne" is defined as coming into a game with a lead so big even a complete bustout like the bespectacled one can't blow it. Coming in with a seven run lead and loading the bases before finally closing it out is a classic "Gagne."

So as in the ALDS, the Sox are off to a superb start in the run for the pennant. The Sox have a chance to really put the Indians in a hole on Saturday night when they send out the best post season pitcher of our lifetimes to face another 19 game winner in Fausto Carmona. If Friday night was any gauge, my guess is that Carmona follows suit and crumbles like the chubby C. C.

Remember, Fausto still has vivid memories of last season at Fenway coughing up a pair of leads to the Sox as a closer. Let's hope he buckles under the pressure of Cleveland's need to pick up at least one win before heading home.

If the Sox can win on Saturday, the Indians' confidence would be severely shaken with their Twin Aces coming up empty twice and heading home with only Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd standing in the way of the long offseason.

Nice job in Game One. You knocked them down onto their back. It's now time to put your foot on their throat. Let's get it done.

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The 3-Man Rotation

For whatever reason, Major League Baseball has added many extra rest days to the post-season this year, allowing teams with short benches or shallow rotations to hide their flaws on the game's biggest stage. The Boston Red Sox must capitalize on this break from tradition and use only their three best starters in the quest for the club's twelfth American League pennant.

Much was made of Indians manager Eric Wedge's decision to call upon the mediocre Paul Byrd to start Game 4 of the ALDS rather than giving the nod to Cy Young hopeful C.C. Sabathia on three days rest. The move worked out for the Tribe; Byrd limped through five innings while Yankees "ace" Chien-Ming Wang, pitching on three days rest, got the hook from the outbound Joe Torre in the second inning.

The Sox will find themselves in the same position during the ALCS. There is a distinct possibility that Sox ace Josh Beckett could pitch in games 1,4, and 7. He has not pitched since blinding the hapless Angels on October 3rd, and he will take the hill in Game 1 on October 12, giving him eight full days of rest. If Tito keeps the big Texan to a reasonable pitch count, he could come out and pitch in Game 4 on October 16 on three days rest, then return for a possible Game 7 on October 21 on a regular four days of rest.

This setup would have Curt Schilling starting Game 2 (Oct. 13, 5 days of rest) and Game 5 (Oct. 18, four days) and Daisuke Matsuzaka pitching Game 3 (Oct. 15, 9 days) and Game 6 (Oct. 20, four days).

Lets look at another possible permutation that would avoid the short rest altogether and more than likely pass the Game 4 start to the achy Tim Wakefield, who hasn't been right in almost two months. Beckett would pitch games 1 (8 days) and 5 (5 days), Schilling 2 (5 days) and 6 (6 days), and Matsuzaka 3 (9 days) and the decisive Game 7 (5 days).

Putting Wakefield in the rotation also will force the young lefthander Jon Lester to serve as the team's long man in case of an early game explosion by any of the four starters. With three starters, Wakefield could assume the same innings-eater role he took during the 19-8 blowout against the Yankees in Game 3 of the 2004 ALCS. This would free Lester to be used as more of a middle reliever, picking up an inning or two later in the game or in extra innings. (As a side note, the New York Yankees are 4-13 in playoff games since Dave Roberts stole second.)

If we take this experiment another cautious step forward, a three-man rotation coming out of a seven-game series would allow Schilling to start Game 1 of the World Series on five days rest, with Matsuzaka taking Game 2 (four days) and Beckett taking Game 3 (five days). At this point, we'd need to have a Wakefield start in Game 4, followed by the Schilling-Matsuzaka-Beckett attack taking games 5, 6, and 7 on regular rest.

But even that is getting far ahead of ourselves. We already can expect that Eric Wedge will cleanly rotate his pitchers 1-4, as that's what he stuck to in the ALDS and he has no reason to change now. If the Sox went with three starters, the mismatches could be very helpful as the series goes on; we'd see Beckett/Sabathia, Schilling/Carmona, Matsuzaka/Westbrook, Beckett/Byrd, Schilling/Sabathia, Matsuzaka/Carmona, and Beckett/Westbrook. If the Sox can hang tough and take the series to seven games, I feel very good about Beckett's matchups in 4 and 7.

This Cleveland team is very good, with a pesky offense, two strong aces, and two young bullpen guns that can shut teams down in the middle innings. The Sox will have to exploit both the back end of the Cleveland rotation and their eminently hittable closer Joe Borowski if they want to capture the flag and have some quadruple-A expansion franchise over for an early Halloween party. A three-man rotation will be the best path to such an opportunity.

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Be Careful What You Wish For

On Sunday night, after the Sox swept away the Angels, WBZ-TV ran a poll to see who Sox fans preferred to see in the ALCS. More than 75% chose the Indians over the hated Yankees. Count me in that overwhelming majority. There is just one problem. The Indians were the much better team.


So if the Yankees are the weaker team, why didn't we want to meet them? Well, I can't speak for everyone else, but I didn't want to see the Bombers because they scared the absolute bejezus out of me. Call it the ghosts of 78 or 03 or simply being afraid of the bogieman. But I just felt, for some reason especially this year, that they Yanks had our number. And they knew it. Just as the Sox knew they would dismiss the Angels, the Yanks deep down felt they could beat this Red Sox team. Call it irrational, emotional, or just plain paranoid. That is the way I felt.

Plus I have had it with the Dramafest that surrounds all things Red Sox-Yankees. I just want a baseball game, not a Passion Play.

So instead, I wished for a Yankee loss (always an enjoyable event) and a Cleveland win. That happened. Now we have to tangle with the co-best team in the American League and by extension, the co-best club in all of baseball. And don't be fooled. These Indians are not the California Angels of Los Angeles, Orange County, California West Coast USA.

Although the Indians finished with the same record as the Sox, you could argue they had a harder road to earn it. They play in the AL Central, arguably a better division than the AL East. The Tigers were the defending AL Champs, the Twins are always tough and the White Sox were only a year removed from a World Championship. Even the Royals played well in the second half. Much better than a division including the Rays, the corpse-like Orioles and the injury ravaged Blue Jays.

The Indians were also victimized by the brain surgeon schedule makers who had them with a four game set against the Mariners in the the first week of April. While Seattle's domed Safeco Field sat empty, the Tribe and the M's were snowed out of four games in Cleveland. They spent the rest of the summer sneaking back and forth on off days to make up the games. The Indians eventually had to play one of their "home" games in Seattle.

So make no mistake. Eric Wedge's crew will prove to be a handful for the Sox.

Also remember that this series will ultimately decide the World Series winner. While the Four A Expansion Championship takes place in Phoenix and Denver, the two best major league teams will be fighting the cold and each other to determine who will go out west and beat their brains in.

As an aside, for those of you old enough to remember, this set up is reminiscent of the late 60's when the NHL doubled the size of their league. They went from the Original Six team to 12 teams and instead of integrating the new teams with the old, they set up a Western Division made up exclusively of expansion teams. That guaranteed that at least one of these newbies would play in the Stanley Cup finals and have the honor of getting swept by one of the Original Six every season. The Bruins took full advantage in 1970 by sweeping the St. Louis Blues 4-0. (See Orr,Bobby, Flying Through Air).

But I digress. Back to Cleveland /Boston.

The Sox and Indians have met four times in the post season. The first time was in 1948 when the two clubs tied for first place - both winning 96 games ironically - and had to play a one game playoff. Sox skipper Joe McCarthy sent out journeyman Denny Galehouse to pitch the key game. As with all things Red Sox, there was controversy surrounding the decision. Many felt Mel Parnell, who was 15-8 on the year, should have been given the ball even though he would have been pitching on three days rest. To put it in modern terms, this would be like starting Julian Tavarez instead of Josh Beckett on three days rest with the pennant on the line.

The results were predictable. Galehouse turned in a Wang-like performance, failing to get out of the fourth inning as the Sox were smoked 8-3 and the Indians captured the AL flag.

It would be 47 years before they met again in the 1995 ALDS. Kevin Kennedy's Sox might as well have stayed home. They lost the first game 5-4 in 13 innings at the Jake when former Sox Tony Pena hit a home run on a 3-0 pitch. The Indians blanked them 4-0 in Game two and polished them off in Fenway in Game 3 by a score of 8-2. The series was most known for the futility of Mo Vaughn and Jose Canseco, that year's version of Manny and Papi. The pair combined to go 0-27 in the series.

In 1998, they met again in the ALDS and the results weren't much better. The Tribe took the series 3-1. The Sox started off much better as Vaughn tried to make up for 95 by blasting a pair of homers while Nomar added one and Pedro held down Manny Ramirez and the rest of the Indian lineup in an 11-3 win. That would be it for the Sox as the Indians swept the final three games, 9-5, 4-3 and 2-1, the last two at Fenway.

The two teams staged a rematch a year later and the Sox finally broke through. It looked like more of the same for Jimy Williams' Sox when the Indians swept the first two games at the Jake 3-2 and 11-1. But returning to Fenway, the Sox exploded for 9-3 and 23-7 wins in Games 3 & 4 setting up a dramatic Game 5 in Cleveland.

The defining moment in that game and the series was the dramatic appearance of Pedro Martinez in relief. Suffering a back strain, Pedro was not expected to play. But after three innings the wild game was tied 8-8 and Petey came in on his white horse in the bottom of the fourth. He proceeded to pitch six innings of no hit ball allowing only four walks (one to Manny) and shutting down the powerful Indian lineup. Troy O'Leary blasted a three run homer in the seventh to give the Sox the lead and they added another in the ninth. Pedro closed out the 12-8 win by striking out Omar Vizquel for the final out. The Sox would go on to lose the ALCS 4-1 to the Yanks.

There are plenty of subplots in this series with ties between the team. The Indians have Eric Wedge, Trot Nixon and Kelly Shoppach as former Sox. The Sox have former Tribesmen Manny, Coco and Julian Tavarez. John Farrell is a former Indian as is Terry Francona who played in Cleveland in 1988. And the senior Francona, the original Tito, played for the Indians from 1959-1964.

So enough of the preliminaries. It's prediction time.

For those of you keeping track at home, I was 3 out of 4 in the Division Series. The only one I missed was the red hot Rockies over the Phils.

Arizona over Colorado in 6.
Everyone loves the Rockies, who have become the trendy pick. I still think they will hit the wall at some point and I believe this is it. Besides I still have my heart set on a trip to Arizona for the World Series.

Sox over Indians in 7
This should be a great series. My feeling is that Beckett/Schilling and Sabbathia/Carmona will cancel each other out and it will be Matsusaka/Wakefield and Westbrook/Byrd that decides this one. I like the Sox in that matchup. Plus Papelbon over Borowski is a HUGE advantage for the Sox in a short series. The Indians probably have the edge in middle relief, but the OBP Sox have to work the starters and get Betancourt and Perez into games early and often. This one should go down to the wire, but ultimately, I believe the Sox are headed for another World Series.

Friday can't come soon enough.

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Built to win.

I know we've only seen these Sox in two playoff games this year, but it is already crystal clear that the team was constructed exclusively to succeed in the postseason crapshoot.

In Game One, we had Josh Beckett shut down the AL West champs for his sixth career complete game. In Game Two, we had our rookie hurler run into a bit of trouble, then get picked up by flawless pitching performances from the bullpen and the big bats. And today, the Sox have their opponents on the brink of elimination with one of the best big-game pitchers in the history of the game on the hill.

Not a bad little team, all things considered.

The team surely had its holes throughout the course of the year, but now that the postseason tournament has begun those holes have become much less prominent. Terry Francona's gentle handling of Jonathan Papelbon and Dustin Pedroia is paying dividends as they are both healthy and rested during this late juncture of the season. And remember that month Manny took off while the Sox were tying up the East? I don't know about you, but after that majestic homer on Friday night, I'm fairly pleased that he waited until he was 100% before returning to the lineup.

Just compare that to our neighbors to the south, who haven't had any production from their offense in the first two games of their series and found themselves calling on Luis Vizcaino in the tenth inning of a crucial playoff game because they'd already used Justin Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera in the game.

(For the record, I will not be referring to Justin Chamberlain as "Joba" because that's not his real name. He changed it to "Joba" because his little cousin called him that and everyone thought it was cute. I think its stupid, and I will only begin participating in the Yankees' Star Wars fantasy universe when they agree to refer to our rookie outfielder as "Obi Wan" Jacoby Ellsbury.)

So hopefully our boys with the bats can keep working those pitch counts and our pitchers can keep the aggressive Angels bats missing. Let's hope the Sox can put the finishing touches on the divisional series this weekend and prepare to host the Indians at Fenway on Friday.

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We're 9% There

Judging from the reaction to last night's impressive victory by the inane "fans" on the street and the gushing prattle of the bobble heads on the local news anchor desk, you would have expected to pick up the morning paper and read the following headline: "SOX WIN WORLD SERIES IN ONE GAME!"


Calm down people. It was the perfect way to start the postseason, but it was what it was: just one game.

But what a game it was. Josh Beckett calmly took the mantle of Sox Ace from Pedro Martinez, who took it from Roger Clemens, draped in over his broad, gunslinger shoulders and went out and humiliated the Los Angeles Angels. It was no contest. The feeble Halos were cooked and they knew it. It was 4-0, but it felt like 40-0. Come on, at ANY point following Youk's homer did you feel like this game was in jeopardy? Me neither.

In reality, though, it was a must win for the Sox and to their credit they won it. If they had ever come out last night in front of a roaring home crowd (although you couldn't here it on TBS since they were apparently using soup cans for microphones) with their ace going against a pitcher in John Lackey that they absolutely own in Fenway and lost, it would have been a monumental disaster. They did what they had to do.

Beckett's brilliance hid some disturbing signs, however. The Sox offense punched out after the third inning letting Lackey off the hook after having him on the ropes. It would have been nice to knock him out of the game and gotten into the bullpen by the fifth inning but they took their foot off the accelerator. The bottom of the order reverted to FeebleTown as Crisp, Drew and Tek all grounded into double plays killing potential big innings.

Crisp, although he made a run saving catch early, was particularly inept at the plate going 0-3 and seeing a total of SIX pitches. The popgun offense is sufficient when your Ace is twirling a four hit, complete game shutout, but that is not going to happen very often.

Which brings us to Friday night. The Sox have started off on the right foot, but as someone once said, momentum in baseball is only as good as the next day's starter. And Josh Beckett will not be walking through that door again.

No, in Game Two, the ball will be in the hands of the enigmatic Dice K Matsusaka, the human box of crackerjacks. When we open him up Friday night, will we get popcorn, peanuts and a prize or a bad case of indigestion?

Remember, the Angels only need one game here and the frightening thought is that we are one 30 pitch, three walk, 4 run classic Dice K meltdown inning away from going to LA 1-1, giving up the homefield advantage and putting this series in real jeopardy.

But we know that the Dice man loves the big stage. Had you heard that he won the big high school tournament in Japan? So that being the case, I suggest that anyone going to the game Friday night wear their letter jackets and bring their pom poms to get Dice K into the mood.

Of course this is not the Yankees he will be facing. Thankfully, the Angels, with the exception of Reggie Willits, have all graduated from The Manny Sanguillen School of Hitting. For you youngins out there, Sanguillen was a Pirate catcher in the 70's who makes Vlad Guerrero look like Kevin Youkilis in terms of plate discipline. These Halos come out swinging from the on deck circle, so hopefully that will keep Dice K from his normal wild streak. We can only hope.

One down, ten to go..

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The endgame begins.

With the playoffs starting tonight, let's lay out a few predictions...

1. Patience will rule the day. The Sox have done a great job working counts all season long, and the grandest stage of them all is the best place to show off the war of attrition our batsmen wage on opposing pitching staffs. For the Sox to succeed, they need to get into the opposing bullpen early and often in every series.
2. The Dice-Man will cometh. Daisuke Matsuzaka has made his bones playing in big games since he was 17 years old. He has been waiting for the next month of his career since he was a little boy, and don't be suprised when he takes his game to a place we haven't seen before.
3. Tim Wakefield will benevolently step out of the spotlight. Wakefield was scratched from the ALDS roster owing to his bad back and in the hopes that he'll be ready to go for the ALCS. Would anyone be really suprised if this is a face-saving move? Wake has been ineffective since the injury, and he is in no condition to contribute - the only times we'll see him before next spring will be during long shots down the bench.
4. The benches will clear when the Sox play the Yanks. The showdown is coming once again, whether we like it or not. And when it comes, these teams are going to be ready for both a literal and a metaphorical fight. Look for Pedroia to be the guy to get hit to start the melee around game 5 in Yankee Stadium.
5. Gagne will make a bold resurgence when we least expect it. Sure, he's looked like garbage many of the times he's taken the hill this season. But let's not forget this guy won the Cy Young as a closer just four years ago - he knows how to pitch, and he knows how to do it when it counts. The pressure will be off him here, as Francona will use four guys before him (Paps, Okajima, Delcarmen, and Timlin) in pressure situations. At some point, his number will be called in a tie game in the 13th inning, and we'll see the resurgence of that Cy Young winner. He'll give us back the games he cost us during the regular season before Halloween.
6. Okajima will hurt our feelings. Let's not lose ourselves here, these are still our parents' Red Sox and they will hurt us at some point. Its just a fact of this relationship, and we shouldn't be suprised when it happens. My guess is the dead-armed Okajima will contribute to some chest pains in the Greater Boston area; he pitched way over his head for six months to get us here, but it looks like now the tank is on empty.
7. Schill will be playing for his legacy. I think one of the main reasons Schilling wants to come back for one more year is because he sees just how close he is to being a Hall of Famer, if he isn't there already. One more year will put him over 225 wins and 3200 Ks, and if he is really committed to becoming a painter like Greg Maddux or Tom Glavine and ends up moving to the National League, its not unrealistic to envision him pitching another two or three years. In any case, another magical October for the Big Schill would be another huge step towards Cooperstown, and don't think Curt won't be thinking about that every time Tito hands him the ball.
8. The World Series will be much more interesting than we'd expect. Its no secret that the National League sucks - just look at Joel Pineiro shutting down the desperate Mets for eight innings last week. With a championship on the line, however, don't expect the NL representative to lay down and die. The Cardinals of 2007 are much more representative of NL pluck than the Cards of 2004.
9. J.D. Drew will erase his season from the history books with one swing of the bat. Those of us that watched him this season won't forget his subpar campaign, but when we look back on 2007 in twenty years we'll only have one memory of J.D., and it will come during the playoffs. For example, how many people today care about Dave Henderson's 110 strikeouts in 388 at-bats in 1986?
10. Series predictions: Sox in 3, Sox in 7, Sox in 6.

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Finally...The Postseason!

After the long, stressful regular season, which drags on like a Bobby Abreu at bat, the postseason is finally here. The slate is clean. Everyone starts even and the possibilities are endless for each team.

So without further adieu, here are ten reasons why I love the postseason and my first round predictions

Things I love about the postseason:

1. Bunting draped around the ballpark and creeping shadows in the infield late in weekend day games.

2. No more drama regarding how many games up we are and if we can hold on and if the Yankees will catch us and what the Magic Number is.

3. Now every game REALLY means something, as opposed to our overreacting and obsessing over every one of the 162 regular season games.

4. Now Tito will manage every game as if it is life and death, which it is, just like we want him to manage EVERY game all year. No more resting Pedroia. No more Hinske, Kielty or Mirabelli. No more maddening lineup gyrations to help "get us where we need to be." We're already there. Just win baby.

5. Manny will actually play!

6. Now that we are in the postseason, we finally get to see ARod cool off.

7. No more Joe Morgan on ESPN to explain that a curve ball curves and a fast ball goes fast and a change up doesn't. "Now look at this. See right there." No more Joe Buck and Tim McCarver. (at least until the World Series, and if we make it that far, we can always turn down the sound.)

8. Later start times. (except for tomorrow night). Now I can actually watch the first inning instead of listening to it in the car on the way home from work. Of course the downside is a serious case of sleep deprivation when the OBP driven Sox stretch these playoff games to four hours and post midnight endings.

9. No more incessant babbling about the absurdly annoying gimmicks like President of Red Sox Nation, Wally the Green Monster and the shameless Huckster Remdawg pushing something off his web site every minute while we're trying to watch the game.

10. We are in the hunt for another World Series Championship!


And now, for the first round predictions.

Red Sox over the Angels. You always have to beware of a wounded animal (spirit?) and the Halos certainly are dinged up. Everyone always praises the Angels because the play "National League Ball". The problem is THEY'RE IN THE AMERICAN LEAGUE! The key to beating them is to get ahead so they can bunt and steal themselves into submission while trailing by four runs. The Sox have had their number since 1986 (Thank you Hendu) and I see no reason for it to end now. Sox in four.

Indians over the Yankees. Maybe this is wishful thinking but the Yanks are not built for the post season. Matsui is going to have to DH so popgun arm Traitor Damon will have to play left and that puts Jason "Steroid Boy" Giambi at first or on the bench. That is a frightful defense. Plus in games one and two, the Indians have a distinct edge playing at home with Sabbathia and Carmona going. The Bombers have never faced C. C. this season and they saw Carmona only once. (beating him 6-1). Plus Steve Philips of ESPN made a great point about the two Indian aces. He said neither of them have to expand the strike zone to get hitters out. He said their stuff is so good, they can be over the plate and still get people out. So the Yankees ploy of working the count and building up pitch counts may be negated because Sabbathia and Carmona can go right after them. So if they come out of Cleveland down 2-0, they face the prospect of running out a shaky Mike Mussina or banged up Texas Conman Roger Clemens in game three. If they manage to win that one, they then will have to beat Sabbathia and Carmona to win the series. I think there is a real chance the Yankees could get beaten here, especially if AROD lays an ABOMB in the postseason again. Tribe in five.

Phillies over the Rockies. Two white hot teams colliding in what should be an outstanding series. The problem is that both of these teams have been pushing for the past two weeks just to make it here by the skin of their teeth and one of them is likely to hit the wall in this series. The betting here is that it is the Rockies who finally flame out. They had to play an extra game, and a 13 inning one at that, and used 27 pitchers to win it. Then they had to turn around and fly across the country and go into battle again. I think it's too much to ask. Phillies in four.

Diamondbacks over the Cubs. The sentimental pick is the Cubs. They have the bigger names but not necessarily the better team. Plus they will be trotting out the contrived Curse of the Billy Goat again (now I understand how annoying the Curse of the Bambino must be to out of town fans). The Dbacks have a great manager in Bob Melvin and some dynamic young stars and some flamethrowing arms beginning with Brandon Webb. And from a personal standpoint, my brother said he might be able to get us tickets to the World Series if the Sox make it against the Dbacks, so I am rooting for Arizona all the way. Diamondbacks in five.

There you have it. Let the games begin.

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There, but for the grace of God, go we.

This morning at my weekly softball game, I was surrounded by kindred spirits longing for a gift from the baseball gods.

"The Mets can still pull this off, right?" they asked me pleadingly.

I didn't know what to tell them.

I've been following the unprecedented collapse of the 2007 New York Mets with some interest over the past several weeks. On September 13, the Red Sox were 5.5 games ahead of the Yankees in the East. On that same date, the Mets were 6.5 games up on the Phillies.

Less than three weeks later, the Sox have the best record in the bigs and are preparing to host the Angels at home. The Mets, on the other hand, are simply going home.

Others in the national media mocked the cautious optimism of Red Sox Nation, who almost to a man refused to accept victory until it was mathematically assured. We do this because we have been burned before. Just as the Mets were this year.

If the tide had been turned for three more games, that could have been us.

So enjoy, Sox fans. Mets fans here are miserable, compounded by the agony of having obnoxious Yankee fans rubbing the injury in their face on an hourly basis. And in their time of need, I'm not sure what to offer them.

Don't take these playoff games for granted, friends. What befell the Mets could have easily befallen us. Hopefully the Sox will make the most of the playoff opportunity.

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Postseason Heroes?

It's never easy for these Red Sox. Close but yet so far. They can't lose the division now when they are so close, can they? It's not as important that they win as that they don't lose. They've come too far to let the Yankmees overtake them yet again. To do so will subject us to another year of New York taunting if the Sox happen to get off to another lead next year. I for one do not look forward to that.

That being said, it really doesn't matter since they are in the "tournament" as Kevin in New York likes to say. So who will emerge as the big hero for the Sox in the postseason?

We all remember 2004. As that season wound down, Derek Lowe was buried so far in the Sox doghouse, you needed the jaws of life to pry him out. He was banished to the bullpen, where most of us figured he would quietly sit out his final days in a Red Sox uniform.

Well, as we all know, that was not exactly what happened. DLowe ended up being the darling of the postseason, winning the clinching game in all three playoff series. Who will be this year's top performer? Here in reverse order are my top three candidates.

3. Manny Ramirez. Sure it's not going out on a limb to tab Manny as a potential hero. He won the World Series MVP in 2004 and is not exactly going to sneak up on anyone. However, he is coming off a tricky injury and going into this week, hadn't played in a month. But it is the latter that I feel makes him a top candidate to catch fire. He needed the rest and has looked rejuvenated since coming back into the lineup. It would not surprise me to see him take off and carry this team for the month of October.

2. Clay Buchholtz. Also known as "the Secret Weapon", look for the rookie righthander to step up big time in the playoffs. The Sox have played this one nicely. They have kept him under wraps under the guise of limiting his innings, and that may be true. But I think the real reason was the Sox wanted to unleash him in the playoffs with as little history as possible. For a couple of weeks, he may be able to baffle some teams who will not have an extensive library of videotape on him. It's no secret that the Sox continue to apply the Patriot Way in their quest for another championship, and this move is typically Belichickian. (see, Moss, Randy). If it works out, Buchholz could be the eighth inning answer and perform a similar role to that of KRod for the Angels in their run to the 2002 World Championship.

1. Curt Schilling. My top choice to come up huge in the post season is old 38 Pitches. While he has not fallen to DLowian depths this year, he has clearly fallen into the "average" category. Why else would the Sox be debating whether to use Dice K or Schilling in game 2?

They can't be serious. Schill has been the Sox best pitcher in September and has succeeded in reinventing himself from the power pitcher he was to a pinpoint location pitcher. Add to that his extensive post season experience and success, and making him the number two guy is a no brainer.

Please spare me the great feats of Dice K. The Japanese High School Tournament? The World Baseball Classic? Pulleeease. Those may be "big games" but they are not "BIG GAMES", like oh, I don't know, say GAME SEVEN OF THE WORLD SERIES!!!! Yeah I think Curt qualifies as a big game pitcher and I know Tito understands that.

It says here that Schill comes out and personally carries this pitching staff in October. He has done it before and will do it again. First of all he relishes the big stage. Secondly, he needs this to propel him to another contract...with the Sox preferably, but with someone ultimately. He promised to bring a championship to Boston but I think he has a good chance to bring us another one.

So let's go Sox. Wrap up this Division thing so we can get on with the games that really matter.

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It came like a vision.

I had a dream the other night. A vision, if you will.

I found myself alone in a pristine white clubhouse, baseball equipment peacefully resting in every corner and crisp white home uniforms hung in every locker.

As my eyes adjusted to the scene, the door at the far end of the room swung open and the room was filled with light. A tall man in a baseball uniform with a bat over his left shoulder stood with his back to me, a squared "9" radiating in red on his back.

He turned and saw me. My jaw dropped as I stared in stunned silence at the legend. He crossed the room and looked me up and down with a disdainful air. He turned and spit; his saliva was absorbed instantly into the clean floor and left nary a mark. With a carefully calculated and disdainful tone, he began to speak to me.

"It came to pass, when Red Sox fans began to multiply across the country from coast to coast, that these people saw the Sox were good; and they took the team as their own to form Red Sox Nation.

"And we, the storied past of the franchise, saw that the inconstancy of the fan was great in the Nation, and that the bandwagon runneth over with pink hats. And it repented the legends of the franchise that we had made Red Sox Nation, and it grieved us at our hearts.

"And we legends said, 'We will destroy the Nation whom we have created from the face of the earth; both die-hard, and pink-hat, and the aged, and the young; for it repenteth us that we have made them."

He paused as his features momentarily softened.

"But you found grace in the eyes of the legends."

My mouth ran dry and I was lost for words; fortunately, his face hardened quickly and he continued at a more rapid pace.

"We have looked upon the fanbase, and, behold, it is corrupt; for all fans care more about 'Sox Appeal' and the President of Red Sox Nation than the play upon the field. And we say unto you, the end of all pink-hats is come before us; for the Nation is filled with bandwagoners; and behold, I, even I, do bring a flood of misery and bad luck to the team, to destroy all happiness and joy from the Nation, and every trace of pleasure will be taken from the Red Sox fans."

"What do you mean?" I finally interrupted. "Bad luck? Destroyed happiness? I don't understand...are you telling me you're going to make the Red Sox lose?"

He nodded sadly. "Not only will they lose, but they will lose in devestating fashion. Crippling losses, like those which have dotted this franchise for the better part of a century, will obliterate all hopes of a championship. New heartbreak will be piled upon the old."

"But why?" I begged, searching for a reprieve. "Why must we suffer this losing? Didn't we pay our dues during the final eight decades of the last century?"

The hardened figure's head drooped low as he resignedly nodded his head. "Yes, this franchise has already paid a debt," he began. "The account had been cleared. But that suffering and devestation served a much more important purpose - the Red Sox fan came to be known as the smartest and most impassioned fan in the country, solely because the abundance of losing served to deter any casual fans from supporting the Olde Towne Team. A sort of natural selection of true baseball fans, if you will.

"Unfortunately, that natural selection has been overrun in the past three years. We knew the team would become popular, but we never expected so many people would adopt this team just to be trendy. This is why the 2003 team had to lose - the 'Cowboy Up' gang was just too popular, and if they took home a World Championship, the Sox would be trapped in the mainstream for years and years to come."

My stomach dropped as I understood what was happening. "So you're telling me the Sox will lose this year simply to drive away bandwagon fans?"

"Not just this year, unfortunately," he replied. "The losing will continue, each more devestating than the last, until only true Red Sox fans remain."

"But that could take years!" I blurted.

"Yes, it could. And it will."

"And there is no other way?"

"None."

"Well if you're telling me for a fact that this team won't win for years to come, then why should I stick with them?"

At this, a smile finally cracked his face.

"For the same reason as all those Red Sox fans of the twentieth century - because it is your destiny."

"But be strong, and you will be rewarded," he said as he made his way back to the door. "A day will come where the Red Sox are no longer trendy. When the passionate baseball fans of yesteryear will replace the Johnny-come-latelies in the stands of that lyric little bandbox in Kenmore Square. When marketing will be unnecessary, and the game itself will be the one and only necessary selling point."

He stepped into the light and the door began to close behind him.

"But what about this year?" I shouted after him. "Can they pull it off?"

He poked his head back out just long enough to meet my desperate eyes. That smile once again crept across his face, as if he knew a joke that he wasn't willing to share. After a moment, he pulled his head out of my view and closed the door behind him.

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You Can't Blame Tito

As the Sox continue to stumble to the finish line, everybody is desperately searching for a scapegoat. Reading game threads on the Sons of Sam Horn or listening to talk radio, it's apparent that everyone is zeroing in on manager Terry Francona as the reason for the recent death spiral.

Looking at it objectively, there is simply no justification for blaming Tito.

Look, Tito drives me crazy some times when he rests Pedroia, probably the guy on the team who needs rest the least, or when he refuses to play small ball when it is obvious his popgun offense is on life support. But overall, I stand by what I said early this year: Tito is the best manager the Sox have had since Dick Williams in 1967.

And blaming him for what has transpired over the past month is simply illogical. Here are 11 reasons you can't blame Tito for the current Sox struggles.

You can't blame Tito for:

1. Manny being hurt/being Manny (take your pick). The Sox are 11-11 since the Slugger Savant went down. Unless you want to say Tito snuck into Manny's room in New York and pulled his oblique with his bare hands, it's tough to lay this one on him.

2. Youk getting hurt. The Sox are 1-4 since Youk went down after being hit. I've checked the replay many times. Tito was not pitching when Youk got plunked.

3. Big Papi's knee. When David Ortiz's knee pain eased up, he went on a homer tear. When the injury flared up again, Papi went into a slump. Not Tito's fault.

4. Eric Gagne being a fat steaming lump of dung. Theo pulled the string on this one (which EVERYONE in Red Sox nation cheered). It's not Tito's fault that the bespectacled one has personally blown four games.

5. Dice K hitting the wall. Tito tried to limit his pitches early in the year but was ridiculed for it since "Dice K always throws a lot of pitches." Well, guess what. The Dice man has never played a season this long, and you are seeing the results. Again, not Tito's fault.

6. Hideki Okijima running out of gas. You could make a case that Oki was used too much in the early going, but look back at Tito's alternatives at the time. Timlin was hurt. Delcarmen was blowing games in the minors and Joel Piniero was being groomed as a set up guy. What would YOU have done?

7. Coco Crisp getting hurt. Crisp had turned into the player we thought we were getting last year but the back injury brought him to a standstill. Tito's fault?

8. The sucking of JD Drew. This is Theo's albatross, but Tito has to inhale the stench every day when he makes out the lineup card. If Manny comes back for the playoffs and Tito pencils in Drew instead of Ellsbury, THEN I will join you in booing Tito.

9. Julio Lugo not hustling. Bad enough he's dragging around that .235 average of his. No excuse for not hustling in the game in Toronto. If he beats out the grounder, the whole complexion of the game changes. Again, this one is on Julio, not Tito.

10. Tim Wakefield getting hurt. Wake was on an unhittable run until his 41 year old body turned on him. He has given up 26 hits and sports a 12.08 ERA in 12 2/3 innings in three September starts. How is that Tito's fault?

11. Jonathan Papelbon turning into Heathcliff Slocumb. The unhittable Mr. Pap has just coughed up two leads in a row. Who would have predicted that? Certainly not Tito.

So to summarize. An already Punch and Judy lineup is ravaged by injury and Tito must insert some combination of Eric Hinske, Bobby Kielty, Kevin Cash, Brandon Moss et all to fill out a nine man batting order. A solid starting rotation disintegrated before his eyes as Wake got hurt and Dice K hit the wall. The strength of his team, one of the best bullpens in baseball, implodes in shocking fashion.

So explain to me again how any of that is Tito's fault?

Let me help you. It isn't.

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What fun.

Are we close enough for you yet?

If the Sox go 10-0, they win the East.
If the Sox go 9-1, they win the East.
If the Sox go 8-2, the Yankees need to go 11-0 to tie.
If the Sox go 7-3, the Yankees need to go 10-1 to tie.
If the Sox go 6-4, the Yankees need to go 9-2 to tie.
If the Sox go 5-5, the Yankees need to go 8-3 to tie.
If the Sox go 4-6, the Yankees need to go 7-4 to tie.
If the Sox go 3-7, the Yankees need to go 6-5 to tie.
If the Sox go 2-8, the Yankees need to go 5-6 to tie.
If the Sox go 1-9, the Yankees need to go 4-7 to tie.
If the Sox go 0-10, the Yankees need to go 3-8 to tie.

If they can phone in the rest of the regular season, so can I.

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The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Ho hum. Another series with the Yankees. Another lost series with the Yankees. If the Sox wanted to gear it up for the playoffs, they should have started this weekend. They didn't. But all things considered, all the news was not bad coming out of another lost weekend to the Bombers.

Despite the weekend's disappointing outcome, the Sox will still probably win the division. Although after serving up a disgusting Monday Night White Flag Special (Cora, Hinske, Cash and another Wakefield meltdown) to the Blue Jays, the Sox appear to be really trying to kick this one away. But even with tonight's 6-1 sleepwalk, if the Sox stumble home 6-5, the Yanks will have to go 10-2 to catch them. And remember, thanks to their 10-8 season series edge over the Sox, the Yanks only have to tie to win the division. Hello 2005.

In any event, let's take a look back at the weekend with the Yankees and review - in reverse order- the Good, the Bad and the Ugly of the three days.

The Ugly-

The Friday Night Meltdown. What made it worse is that it wasn't Gagne (the face on the milkbox), DelCarmen or Timlin kicking it away. This was Numero 1 and 2 - Jonathan Papelbon and Hideki Okajima who gave away what looked like a sure win. Paps can be given a pass, but OkiDokie is apparently toast. He looks totally gassed and if Tito thinks he can keep running him out there in the eighth through the postseason, I fear more of what we saw Friday night. Good thing we got Gagne, eh?

The Bad -

Losing two of three. Although the Sox avoided an unmitigated disaster by taking one game, the fact is that this team has proven it can not beat the Yankees. They have now lost four straight series going 3-9 and losing five of their last six against New York. You know these teams are heading for an ALCS showdown, and if you are a Sox fan, you need to be very, very worried about this team beating the Bombers in a seven game series.

The Mastery of Fat Roger. Also in the bad news column is the Sox inability to do anything against Fat Roger. In his last 12 innings, Clemens has allowed four hits and picked up two victories against the Sox. Against everyone else, The Fat Fraud is 4-6, but when he sees the carmine hose, he reverts to late 1990's form.

Youk getting hurt. The good news is that Youk will probably have a good time not playing. Manny seems to be enjoying it immensely.

Tumbling Dice K. Speaking of spent Japanese pitchers, Dice K must be watching a Jon Lester instructional video tape. Voiceover as the tape shows a pitcher sweating and grunting throwing one pitch after another: "The first thing you must do to be a successful pitcher is to throw as many pitches as you can early in the game as possible. This will tire out the opposition as they foul off pitches and watch you struggle to get anyone out. And all those baserunners will increase the chances that the opposition will pull a hamstring or be injured running the bases. Plus you will get to leave the game early and enjoy the action with your teammates."

The Good -

Josh Beckett. Thank god for Josh. The Yankees have virtually admitted that the only Sox pitcher that worries them is the big Texan. On Saturday, you saw why. He is unquestionably the staff ace and he proved it again by saving what would have been a disastrous weekend.

Jacoby Ellsbury. The kid can play and he has that look that says he plays even better when the pressure is on. He will have a huge impact in the postseason if Tito has the baseballs to sit JD Drew and play him.

Mike Lowell. Where would this team be without Lowell this season. He continues to produce in the clutch. Unfortunately, because of Theo's bungling of the roster last offseason, we are probably seeing the last of him in a Red Sox uniform. Let's hope this classy guy goes out with a ring and our undying appreciation.

The tooling of Petitte and Wang. Despite the two losses, Sox fans have to be encouraged with the way the Popgun Brigade worked Petitte and Wang. They will need more of that if they hope to upset the Yanks in the playoffs.

The Madduxification of Schilling. He will never throw the high heat again, but his pinpoint control, pitching intelligence and doggedness will make the Big Schill effective. His solid seven innings with a low pitch count shows he has been able to retool himself. Despite the one bad pitch to Jeter, he proved that he should still get the ball in the big games. He should be the number two behind Beckett in the postseason.

Eleven games to go and the magic number is still nine. Can they hold on?

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Too much balance?

For the better part of the last hundred years, Red Sox clubs have been notoriously one-dimensional. Any successful Sox team has featured an outstanding slugging club with spotty pitching and absolutely no speed. This was the blueprint, and the Yawkey era very rarely strayed from it.

Such a club was featured as recently as the 2003 edition, which featured both a record-breaking offense and John Burkett in must-win playoff games. Over the past several years, Theo Epstein has cobbled together a much more balanced club that can hit, pitch, run, and play defense equally effectively.

Looking at the general tendencies over the course of the year, however, one has to wonder if such a balanced team can get the job done in a five or seven game playoff series.

We all know good pitching beats good hitting. These Sox feature an imposing set of arms who have kept us competitive on a nightly basis all year. Unfortunately, the rotation is almost too even - each guy has an equal chance of pitching well, but each can also fall apart at a moment's notice. Who starts Game 2 in a playoff series? A case could easily be made for any of Schilling, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, Buchholz, or Lester. A case could also be made than any of these guys could not be included on the playoff roster.

At the dish, the same problem presents itself. Any Sox player could conceivably step up and get the job done at any time, but we have no one on whom we can really count to get the job done. I know the OBP attitude can drive some fans nuts, and such an attitude will also lead to leaving many runners on base, but it is the weapon of choice for this offense. They haven't changed all season, and they won't be changing now.

This universal level of achievement has turned the Sox into a regular season powerhouse, as no one is expected to carry the team on their shoulders. Exhibit A is having the team's top slugger and cleanup hitter miss the finial month of the season without the club missing a beat. In the playoffs, however, the team will need someone to step up, not cover a gap.

But who is that person going to be?

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The Playoffs Start NOW!

So you can't wait until the postseason arrives? Well, I have news for you. The playoffs start Friday night in a 2 of 3 series against the relentless Yankees. And for all our sakes, the Sox better start playing like their postseason lives depend on it. Because they do.

Ok. Enough of the life and death struggles against the Devil Rays and mismatched sparring rounds with the cream puff Orioles. It's time to play some Big Boy Baseball, to paraphrase Michael Felger.

People are getting giddy that the magic number for making the playoffs is in single digits (7) and is fast approaching the same for the division crown (11 with the Yanks' ninth inning loss to the Jays Thursday night). So maybe this series with the Bombers isn't so important. They're both going to the playoffs, right? Wrong, Aaron Boone-breath. This series is CRUCIAL for a number of reasons and it's time for this frustrating Red Sox team to knock off the crap and play like "The Team With The Best Record In Baseball" should play.

So how much is at stake in this series? Let's take a look.

1. Winning the AL East. Let's start at the top. The Sox come into the series with a 5 1/2 game lead with 15 to play, which should be safe enough. But don't kid yourself. The AL East is not over. With another three game sweep, the Yanks can pull to within 2 1/2 games with 12 to play and anything can happen from there.

"Oh all they have to do is win one game," I hear you say. That's what we said two weeks ago when the Sox wet their unis in the Bronx and rolled over like a bunch of Fido's in the three game sweep. In fact, the Sox have now lost four in a row to the Yanks and 5 of their last 7. They haven't won a series against New York since mid May. It's time for them to turn this around. Forget winning one game. They need to come out and win the series and send the pinstripes packing down 6 1/2 or 8 1/2 games with 12 to play. That's a statement they need to make.

There is a ton at stake in winning the division foremost being home field advantage in a dangerous five game series and the ability to decide whether they want a compressed or elongated schedule for the first series. Even though they don't have a dominant number two pitcher, they may still opt for the longer series, as Peter Gammons pointed out, to make Jonathan Papelbon available for more games. Don't underestimate this advantage.

2. Eliminating The Yanks. The Yanks are still on the edge of making the playoffs and the Sox can help push them completely out. They come in with a 2 1/2 game lead in the wild card race. If the Sox can take two of three or sweep while the Tigers have their way with the Twins, the Yanks can find themselves in a real dogfight to even make the playoffs. And deep down, don't we really want to see them out of this thing before it starts?

3. Winning The Confidence Game. Yea, I know the Sox are on a roll with a couple of come from behind wins over the improving Devil Rays, but let's face it, the Sox have been shaky for a while. With three-fifths of their starting rotation disintegrating before our eyes, the last thing the Sox need is to get humbled by the Yankees AGAIN and find themselves backing into the playoffs. That is a sure recipe for an early exit.

No, what they need to do is snap out of it and beat the BeJesus out of the Yanks. Dice K needs to suck it up and have a good game. Beckett needs to be Beckett. And Curt Schilling needs to be Greg Maddux. The best case scenario is that they win Friday and Saturday and come into Sunday night's game against Fat Roger looking for a sweep. (Don't worry. You won't miss the Pats-Chargers game. I'm sure Bill Bellichick will be taping it.)

The inverse can be disastrous. If Dice K melts down again, and the Yankees beat Beckett again and Fat Roger silences the bloodthirsty Fenway faithful, this Sox team will be toast. Derek Jeter and the Yankees already feel like the Sox are a bunch of chokers who they can beat any time they want. The Sox have to shake that overconfidence, if for no other reason than to set the right tone for the playoffs.

So we all need to treat this like Round One of the post season. And it all starts with Dick K Friday night. That can be a frightening thought, but he's been billed as a "Big Game Pitcher." They don't get much bigger than this.

In 72 hours, we'll know where we stand. Will the real Red Sox please stand up?

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Lucky 13

After the huge come-from-behind win by the home town team tonight, the magic number has dropped to 13. With the second-place Yankees heading to New England this weekend, the Sox have a golden opportunity to cinch their first AL East crown in over a decade.

Here are the simple numbers regarding this weekend's three-game set:

If the Sox win 0: Magic number remains 13 with 13 to play
If the Sox win 1: Magic number becomes 11 with 13 to play
If the Sox win 2: Magic number becomes 9 with 13 to play
If the Sox win 3: Magic number becomes 7 with 13 to play

As of this writing, the Wednesday and Thursday night games are included in the "13 to play;" in a perfect world, the Sox would win their game tomorrow night and the Yanks would lose twice over the next two days, which would take three more off the magic number.

In other words: The end is near, but don't get comfortable.

Before last night's game, the pundits all believed the East was a lock; a seven-run deficit later and many believed this team would probably get swept in the first round even if they're lucky enough to make the playoffs at all. Red Sox Nation has been burned before and is therefore more prone to wild bouts of skepticism, but a quick glance at the standings show that this team is the only franchise with a winning percentage over .600.

I know they are frustrating to watch. I know we have many question marks staring us in the face. I know we have some free agents that have underperformed and some marquee stars who are letting us down.

But in the end, this team wins games. I could parade some stats around, but those are easily dismissed when the going gets rough, so I'll try and keep this as simple as possible.

88 wins, 58 losses, 5 game lead, 16 games to play.

Now let's see if they can close one door.

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Ups and Downs

As we head into the homestretch, we can see the playoffs on the horizon. Now would be a good time to take a look at what is currently encouraging with the Sox and what should concern us.

The bad news is that most of the downs concern the pitching staff. Not good considering we have banked all year on the fact that we will have the better pitching in the postseason. So let's start with the bad news.

The Downs:

Being totally objective, it's tough to look at the current starting rotation without breaking into a cold sweat. After Josh Beckett and maybe the resurgence of Jon Lester (of course it's been four starts against the Orioles and Devil Rays), the rest of the staff should definitely give you a case of the Calvin Schiraldis.

Dice K: The rookie phenom has clearly hit the wall, Tito's protestations to the contrary. He is pitching on fumes and desperately needs a rest. Hopefully Tito doesn't believe the claptrap he has been serving up and seriously considers letting Dice K miss a start or two. He needs to recharge the batteries or he will be useless in the playoffs. Watching him get knocked around by the O's and Rays, how do you feel about watching him against the Angels and Yankees? How do you say Oi Vay in Japanese?

Tim Wakefield: In recent years, Wake has spent a stretch of time on the DL with some injury or another. He has avoided that this year...until now. He is a warrior, but if his effort against the O's is any indication, he is not ready for prime time.

Curt Schilling: The transformation of the Big Schill from power pitcher to John Burkett continues. As we have said, if anyone can be effective with an 88 mile an hour fastball, that would be Schilling, but this clearly remains a work in progress. Again, how do you feel about running him out there against the Yankee? Perhaps the Bombers will drown themselves drooling. Or there might be an injury or two as they battle to get to the bat rack. Scary.

Manny Delcarmen: Talk about the girl with the curl. When he is good, he is very very good. When he is bad, well you know how that goes. When I see him go out there I always feel we are a couple of four pitch walks away from disaster.

Hideki Okajima: See Dice K above. Okidokie has already appeared in 62 games. His highest total EVER in Japan was 58. Time for Tito to lay off for a while.

Eric Gagne: On the one hand, it's nice to hear that he was actually injured and that is the reason he was getting hammered. (Please don't buy that drivel that he overworked himself trying to work out of his problem and that he was tipping his pitches.) A stud closer like Gagne becomes ineffective for only one reason: he's hurt. And we now find out that was the case. The good news is that if this layoff allows him to come back healthy, we may actually have the bullpen we hoped we had on July 31.

Manny Ramirez: The Sox are doing fine without Manny against the Weak Sisters of the Poor who they have been playing lately, but they will need Manny in the post season. Please note that when they played a good team i.e. the Yankees, they lost three straight without number 24. This time off can work one of two ways. If he comes back healthy and refreshed, he can do serious damage in October. If he is not recovered, his absence creates a gaping hole in the lineup that could be fatal come playoff time.

Kevin Youkilis: He continues to play gold glove first base, but he is rapidly become absolutely Drewish at the plate. For the second consecutive year, Youk has worn down in the second half. This is an issue the Sox brass really have to address as they make plans for the future. As for the near term, his strike outs have begun to make him look like Mark Bellhorn. Another potential hole in a swiss cheese lineup.

JD Drew: Enough said. Huge disappointment. Get ready for a lot of ground balls to second and an occasional walk with runners in scoring position.

But the news is not all bad. In fact there are a few encouraging developments heading into the postseason.

Jonathan Papelbon: Tito has used him brilliantly this year and he appears ready to put together a Mariano Rivera/Dennis Eckersley/Rollie Fingers (for you old timers) type of post season. The key is, can the Sox lightweight lineup get him enough leads to save?

David Ortiz: Either through some key adjustments or just by getting more healthy, Big Papi appears to be rounding into his old Hero self. The pop appears to be back and if Manny can slip in behind him, we can hope for another clutch post season by Ortiz.

Coco Crisp: This is double good news. Coco is picking up his his hitting to go along with his yearlong outstanding defense just in time for the playoffs . That bodes well for the Sox in October. For the long term, Coco is increasing his trade value daily, something that will pay dividends in the offseason when Theo deals him. It is obvious that with the play of Ellsbury and the Albatross Drew contract that Crisp is the odd man out. I hate to see him go, but if he can bring back a couple of young pitching and a catching prospect, that would work out fine. Maybe Theo can work out a reverse Beckett, trading Crisp but making them take Drew's contract as well. Won't happen. Theo can't trade with himself.

Jacoby Ellsbury: Something tells me he will make a serious impact in the post season. As much as we all like him, however, he is not going to be a substitute for Manny, so let's not get carried away. That said, it will be nice to have him and his five tool game on the bench. Maybe Tito will stand up to Theo and play him instead of Drew.

Dustin Pedroia: The AL Rookie of the Year continues to hit, play defense and give this team the dirt dog edge that left with Trot Nixon. I really expected him to go out after Daniel Cabrera even though he was giving up a foot and a half. The fact that he didn't proves that he is smart as well as talented.

Mike Lowell: When you open the Baseball Dictionary and look up "Salary Drive" you will see a picture of Mike Lowell. He is making himself hundreds of thousands of dollars a day with his continued stellar play. From the beginning of the year, when the debate was how much less than 9 million would he accept to now when he has probably priced himself out of Boston (Shouldn't he be looking for Drew money at 14 million per year?). That's unfortunate since he has become the go to guy on this team. Short term, that bodes well for the postseason. It will be sad to see him go, if he leaves.

Overall, it will come down to pitching, as it always does. Tito has three weeks to get the staff ready. Time to build momentum for October.

The magic number is 14.

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