Wednesday, October 3

The endgame begins.

With the playoffs starting tonight, let's lay out a few predictions...

1. Patience will rule the day. The Sox have done a great job working counts all season long, and the grandest stage of them all is the best place to show off the war of attrition our batsmen wage on opposing pitching staffs. For the Sox to succeed, they need to get into the opposing bullpen early and often in every series.
2. The Dice-Man will cometh. Daisuke Matsuzaka has made his bones playing in big games since he was 17 years old. He has been waiting for the next month of his career since he was a little boy, and don't be suprised when he takes his game to a place we haven't seen before.
3. Tim Wakefield will benevolently step out of the spotlight. Wakefield was scratched from the ALDS roster owing to his bad back and in the hopes that he'll be ready to go for the ALCS. Would anyone be really suprised if this is a face-saving move? Wake has been ineffective since the injury, and he is in no condition to contribute - the only times we'll see him before next spring will be during long shots down the bench.
4. The benches will clear when the Sox play the Yanks. The showdown is coming once again, whether we like it or not. And when it comes, these teams are going to be ready for both a literal and a metaphorical fight. Look for Pedroia to be the guy to get hit to start the melee around game 5 in Yankee Stadium.
5. Gagne will make a bold resurgence when we least expect it. Sure, he's looked like garbage many of the times he's taken the hill this season. But let's not forget this guy won the Cy Young as a closer just four years ago - he knows how to pitch, and he knows how to do it when it counts. The pressure will be off him here, as Francona will use four guys before him (Paps, Okajima, Delcarmen, and Timlin) in pressure situations. At some point, his number will be called in a tie game in the 13th inning, and we'll see the resurgence of that Cy Young winner. He'll give us back the games he cost us during the regular season before Halloween.
6. Okajima will hurt our feelings. Let's not lose ourselves here, these are still our parents' Red Sox and they will hurt us at some point. Its just a fact of this relationship, and we shouldn't be suprised when it happens. My guess is the dead-armed Okajima will contribute to some chest pains in the Greater Boston area; he pitched way over his head for six months to get us here, but it looks like now the tank is on empty.
7. Schill will be playing for his legacy. I think one of the main reasons Schilling wants to come back for one more year is because he sees just how close he is to being a Hall of Famer, if he isn't there already. One more year will put him over 225 wins and 3200 Ks, and if he is really committed to becoming a painter like Greg Maddux or Tom Glavine and ends up moving to the National League, its not unrealistic to envision him pitching another two or three years. In any case, another magical October for the Big Schill would be another huge step towards Cooperstown, and don't think Curt won't be thinking about that every time Tito hands him the ball.
8. The World Series will be much more interesting than we'd expect. Its no secret that the National League sucks - just look at Joel Pineiro shutting down the desperate Mets for eight innings last week. With a championship on the line, however, don't expect the NL representative to lay down and die. The Cardinals of 2007 are much more representative of NL pluck than the Cards of 2004.
9. J.D. Drew will erase his season from the history books with one swing of the bat. Those of us that watched him this season won't forget his subpar campaign, but when we look back on 2007 in twenty years we'll only have one memory of J.D., and it will come during the playoffs. For example, how many people today care about Dave Henderson's 110 strikeouts in 388 at-bats in 1986?
10. Series predictions: Sox in 3, Sox in 7, Sox in 6.

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