How'd I Do? Revisiting My Spring Training Predictions

Since this will be my last post before THE SEASON FINALLY STARTS I thought it would be a good time to review my Spring Training Predictions made back on February 10.

1. Jon Lester will break camp and head north with the big club as the fifth starter.
Out. I thought I would at least get half credit on this one. With the injury to Mike Timlin and Craig Hansen doing his best Calvin Schiraldi impression, Lester could easily have claimed a spot on the 25 man roster. Beyond that, with his strong spring training start the courageous lefthander could easily have grabbed the fifth man in the rotation once the Sox came to their senses and put Pap back into the bullpen. However, Lester struggled trying to pitch with both hands tied behind his back and wrapped in antiseptic gauze. The Sox couldn't have handled him more gingerly if they put in him glass bubble all spring. Now he will start the season in Class A Greenville where he will wallow for the month of April. He should be ready to come back and rescue Tavarez by early May.

2. Jonathan Papelbon will start the season as the the closer.
Hit. In a miracle of Biblical Proportions, Jonathan Papelbon's shoulder healed itself and now instead of having to be on a structured five day schedule, he can resume his role as All Star Closer. Rubbish. Thank God the farce has ended and the Sox will not waste the first few months of the season torching what will hopefully be some solid efforts from Schilling, Beckett and Matsusaka.

3. J. D. Drew will miss at least several days of workouts due to a minor injury.
Out. Drew turned out to be the feel good story of camp playing regularly and hitting really well. (I would give you his Spring Training batting average but I've been schooled that this doesn't mean anything. Let's just say a lot of the times Drew hit the ball it was fair and the other team didn't catch it.) However I came close to counting this one after this note from the March 18 Boston Globe. "Francona is giving... J.D. Drew some down time...he doesn't want Drew making the bus ride to Fort Lauderdale today 'because he's swinging so well. He feels so good about himself."" Huh?

4. Manny will be late arriving to camp.
Hit. This one was a soft toss. By announcing he would be arriving on March 1, and then showing up on February 27, a week after position players were due to report, Manny accomplished the metaphysical impossible - he was late and early at the same time. Only Manny.

5. Schilling will be signed to an extension.
Out. Theo didn't bite on this one and instead is going to make The Big Schill play for his next contract. Actually, not a bad idea since he also had really good unable-to-be-named statistics this spring and is poised to have an ace-like season.

6. Devern Hansack will be the talk of camp.
Infield hit. I'm going to invoke literary license and take half credit for this one. This from Jeff Horrigan's column in the Boston Herald on March 25:

"Devern Hansack is giving the Red Sox reason to have second thoughts about leaving him off the Opening Day roster.

The 29-year-old right-hander, who was called up from Double-A Portland last September for the final 12 days of the season and will most likely open 2007 with Triple-A Pawtucket, extended his dominant spring yesterday by tossing three perfect innings in a 1-1 tie with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays at Al Lang Field.
Hansack, who has a 2.08 ERA in five spring appearances, retired all nine batters he faced, including three on strikeouts. He threw his fastball, changeup and curveball all for strikes and mixed in an effective slider. (Ed note: please don't pay attention to the above noted statistic.)

The Sox will have one spot open in the bullpen for at least the first nine days of the season while Mike Timlin is on the disabled list, but it is believed that management would prefer to see Hansack go to Pawtucket to start. After watching Hansack yesterday, manager Terry Francona said it was “exciting” to watch him pitch.
“We have to make some decisions coming up shortly, but at some point, this kid’s going to help us,” Francona said.

7. The Twins will win the Mayor's Trophy.
Out. I thought this was a no brainer considering that in the 15 year history of the Battle for Fort Myers, the Sox have captured the cup only four times. But not this year. The Twins went into the fifth and deciding game of the series down 2-1-1 but they would have retained the cup with a win and a 2-2-1 standoff for the spring. Just my luck that this would be the night when Schilling outduels Johan Santana. Staked to a 4-0 lead even Joel Piniero and Javy Lopez couldn't blow this one, although they tried mightly. The Sox held on 5-4 to take home the championship as the crowd went wild. Well, not really. Let's hope Schilling comes up just as big against the Minnesota ace when it really counts. The good news? The last time the Sox won the cup was in 2004 and they went on to have a pretty good season that year.

8. Manny will volunteer to take a long bus ride to play in an exhibition game he could have skipped.
Hit. On March 21, Manny made the 1 hour 32 minute trip from Fort Myers to Bradenton to face the Pirates. From Gordon Edes, Boston Globe March 22, 2007 edition. "Manny Ramirez, who was not listed on the original travelling squad, reached base in all three plate appearances, with an RBI single in the first and two walks. 'He said he was bored and wanted to play,' Francona said. Ramirez plans to play today in Clearwater." That's a trip of 2 hours 16 minutes, 130 miles. Note: He changed his mind and did not go on that one, but I only predicted one extra trip.

9. David Murphy will be mentioned in more than one trade rumor.
Hit. Posted March 15 on MLBTradeRumors.com: "The Marlins may have their eye on a couple of Red Sox: center fielder David Murphy and pitcher Kyle Snyder. Murphy still has a chance to become a credible CF, especially if his adds a little power. Houston also likes Murphy. "
And from the March 18 Boston Globe. "The Astros need an outfielder who can play defense, but while Sox prospect David Murphy's name has been mentioned by Astro officials, it might not be enough to get either (Chad) Qualls or (Dan) Wheeler."

10. Daisuke will get hammered in an early exhibition game and a Boston writer will question the signing (my guess would be Silverman or Shaughnessy).
Out. This one nearly fell in twice. After being hammered for homers by two non roster Orioles on March 11, Karen Guregian said in her column "At times yesterday, Daisuke Matsusaka was the guy worth every penny of the $102 million ransom the Red Sox spent to bring him here...In his last two innings, it was just the opposite. Matsuzaka was hittable. No, make that crushable." Unfortunately, she came up short of actually questioning the signing. Silverman and Shaugnhessy appeared on Sports Seven on the night of the outing and both reaffirmed their faith that Dice K will be just fine. Shocking.
But the CHB almost came through for me following Dice K's last start when he threw a five inning no hitter but walked five. This from the Shank's column the following day:

"Daisuke Matsuzaka pitched five innings of no-hit baseball in a 5-0 spring training loss to the Cincinnati Reds yesterday, but that's not the story. The story is that Dice-K walked five batters and demonstrated poor command of his fastball....The result of all this will be a five-day frenzy of Dice-K speculation on two continents. Is he hurt? Is he frustrated? Is he a diva? Is he physically and mentally prepared for his first big league start next Friday in Kansas City?"

Close, but even I can't take credit for either of those. Dice K mania was so strong it even overcame the Overwhelming Cynicism of our local scribes.

So overall I hit 4.5 out of 10. Not bad. Even a statistics-challenged old foggy like me knows that's a .450 average, higher that Teddy Ballgame and puts me in the Hall of Fame. Wonder what my VORP would be?

Opening Day is three days away. Thank God.

Read More...

Summary only...

Project A-13

In an interesting effort to combat the relentless scrutiny placed on baseball players in the Northeast, one misguided Yankee fan has put together a website intended to unite all Yankee fans in undying adulation of everyone's favorite quarter-billion dollar man, Alex Rodriguez. And I am quite amused.

At Project A13 (http://www.projecta13.com/index.html), Pinstripe fans who are "tired of expecting him to fail, and standing up to boo when he does so" are encouraged to "forget the contract [and] remember the game" as they support ARod. I sincerely hope this initiative takes off and gets the attention of as many New Yorkers as possible, who will promptly boo this webmaster and probably urinate on his doorstep.

Anyone who has been a part of a truly magical heckling experience, whether as performer or observer, knows logic and reason really aren't mandatory for success; many times, the best hecklers are those who know just enough to be dangerous and are in no condition to remember the rest. Although one has to admire the work that went in to designing this slick site, you know it has no chance when you see the subheading, "The Anti-Boos Movement," and can hear your neighbor across the street booing their computer.

So let's go on this magical journey together and have a taste of what this site has to offer.

Would you have signed the contract?
There are very few things I wouldn't do for $252 million dollars.

Would you have come to New York?
If coming to New York included escaping the smoking pile of rubble left at my former franchise because of my crippling $252 million dollar contract, sure.

Would you stay in New York?
Well, considering my only other option is to retire from baseball and not collect the last $125 million dollars of my contract, probably not. I may contract Scott Proctor disease and miss a couple seasons, though.

As we move further down the page, we search for the root causes of ARods problems (stopping to label him an "American hero" en route, of course), and the author endears himself to Yankee fans by basically blaming Cap'n Intangibles himself, Derek Jeter. Although I kind of agree with that sentiment (at the time, I thought it would have been better for Jeter's career if he moved to center field and allowed Bernie Williams to hit the coffee house tour three years earlier), it is not a popular one among real Yankee fans. The author goes on to continually ask if he or I could handle the pressure ARod faces on a daily basis. Of course we couldn't - that's why we're blogging after midnight on a Wednesday and he's swimming in a giant silo of gold coins like Scrooge McDuck.

In terms of ARod walking away from his contract after this season, I have a revelation for Yankee fans: the only reason he leaves is if Scott Boras thinks he can get a more lucrative contract on the open market. Period. End of story. If you boo, it doesn't matter. He may suck more every day, but he has 100 million more reasons to take his lumps and hit those Miami beaches by the second week of October for the rest of the decade.

Anyways, this guy continues to ramble on for hundreds and hundreds of more words, but I just wanted to throw such an intriguing concept out for public consumption. Could you imagine such a site for a Boston athlete? The only type of fan I could picture creating such a site would be a stereotypical pink-hat fan who bought a player's jersey with the name on the back and now can't wear it at the game without the fat guys in the bleachers throwing beers at him.

(As a complete side note, nothing aggrevates me more than when I see Sox fans wearing replica home jerseys with a last name across the back or a Yankees fan with the name across either jersey. Guys, the names aren't on those jerseys in real life. The only reason you throw a name on there is so other pink hat fans know what jersey you're wearing. And quite frankly, that's disgusting.)

So I will let all of you settled safely in Red Sox Nation know if Project A13 is a success.

My guess, however, is that A13 will ultimately be undone by one too many 6-4-3s and E5s.

Read More...

Summary only...

Tom Responds to the 9.5 Theses

It happens to the best of us. The son turning on the father. I should have known I was in trouble from Day Two of his life, when I held tiny Kevin in my arms as he totally ignored me and instead stared with unfocused eyes on that afternoon's Sox game showing on the TV hung high on the hospital room wall. (For the record on 6-11-83 the Sox fell 10-6 to the Orioles to drop to 28-28 for the year. They would go on to finish with a 78-84 record in sixth place - out of seven AL East teams - 28 games back of the pennant winning O's.) But I am proud to see that I helped raise an intelligent, thoughtful Red Sox fan, even if he is off base now and again.

So do I react to the 9.5 Theses as Pope Leo X responded to Martin Luther's 95 Theses? Just ignore them and hope they go away? I think not. I must respond.

On to the particulars.

1. Starters are more valuable than Closers.

:)

2. Bunting is generally stupid. No controversy here. The boy has won me over on this one. This is a case where my years of coaching Little League did affect my judgement. I have come to buy into the Moneyball mantra and agree that there are only a few rare occasions when it makes sense to give away an out.

3. What happened in Little League can in no way be compared to Major League baseball. True enough. The parks are a lot bigger and the manager doesn't have to bring oranges and water to the field. However, there are lessons to be learned at every level, even in Little League, that carry over. Obviously not in terms of execution and ability, but basics are basics and sometimes the big guys act more like little kids than the little kids.
Also, some fact correcting is in order here. As posted earlier this year, I have drunk the Kool Aid on Manny. He can do whatever he wants since his numbers are crucial to the Sox lineup and that overides all the sh** Tito has to eat to get them. I'm serious on this. More importantly, our 10-year-old team was the Royals and we certainly had questionable chemistry, but we finished in second place so it really had no affect. In contrast, our 11-year old team (the Pioneers) was the best behaved, most cooperative team I have ever managed. Outstanding kids with wonderful chemistry. We finished 3-16 and one of the wins was a forfeit. Go figure.

4. Hindsight is fun but not fair. Guilty as charged. Hindsight is the bedrock of sports. If I could make accurate analyses before they happened, I would be a big league GM. Instead I am a couch potatoe with a death grip on the clicker. Plus I can change my mind any time I want. Isn't that why we are so addicted to sports? Plus I'd rather have fun than be fair.

5. A player's value can be judged beyond what they did in today's game. Of course but what fun is that? (There's that fun thing again.) "Oh well. Tek struck out three times and hit into a double play and stranded eight guys in scoring position including the potential winning runs in the bottom of the ninth. That's okay. I know he has real value to the team and the pitching staff needs him desperately so I won't be upset." Uh... I don't think so. Emotion is good. You have to blow off steam and that means making evaluations every inning of every game. "Fan" is short for fanatic, you know.

6. Sabermetric statistics are superior to the counting stats of old. Again, I happen to agree with that. I am not a Bill James Numbers Nazi like Kevin, but I do understand and appreciate the value of OBP and VORP. I actually fancy myself a bit of an advanced statitician. For example, when I managed in Little League (heh, heh), I invented several statistics that were relevant at that level one being BPIP (Balls put in play). The theory was that nine and ten year olds couldn't field very well so the more times the ball was put in play the higher the chance they would reach base and therefore the more runs we would score. So I always batted the kids with a higher BPIP up in the batting order. I think I was ahead of my time. James eat your heart out.

7. Plate discipline is an asset. Again, I agree. And another fact check here. If Kevin remembers, it used to INFURIATE me when Nomar always swung at the first pitch. I would regularly make snap judgements about him in those situations. See #5 above.

8. Strikeouts aren't always a bad thing. This one I have a real problem with. If the best you can hope for someone is that "it's better they struck out then hit into a double play" then you have a real problem on your hands. I guess if giving up an out on a bunt is a bad thing, how is giving up an out on a strike out a good thing? At least with the bunt, you move the runner over. My point is that they both suck. And Mark Bellhorn sucked in 2005 and no one can tell me different. If he had singled, he also would have kept a lot of innings alive and would have provided another RBI opportunity for Ortiz and Ramirez.

9. Trot Nixon was awesome. Again agreed with a heavy emphasis on "was". If Kevin thinks Trot can still contribute, then he has abandoned his Jamesian statistical analysis and has drifted into Grady Little/Joe Morgan gut style decision making. But rather than badmouth Trot, who I happen to like, I will let "SB Blogger" say it. This was posted on January 19:

"Mark Shapiro confirmed he is not the guy to finish the Indians' rebuilding process by signing Trot Nixon to a one year, three million dollar deal. Nothing against Trot Nixon, other than he is old, in a his decline that appears to have a severe power drop off, and can really only hit right handed pitching. However, the Indians have no need of Trot Nixon's services as they have a much younger and cheaper right fielder in Shin-Soo Chin, who will almost certainly outperform Nixon. The signing only accomplishes taking plate appearances away from other hitters, namely Choo and Garko."

And a half...Spring Training statistics don't mean a thing. Well of course they don't, but I would think a James disciple like Kevin would appreciate using something to back up opinions rather than just subjective snap judgement and venting. And if they don't mean anything, why are they kept and published?

Overall, Kevin and I aren't that far afield (no surprise there since I spent most of his life beating my opinions into him). We do have several disagreements but good sports arguments are healthy and make for fun blogging.

I do think I took a couple of bad raps in the 9.5, but I can take it. However, Spring training can't end fast enough. Then I will have some good data and time to make some genuine, reasoned, thoughful comments regarding how the Sox will do this year. And of course I will do this by the end of the first week of April and will change every day thereafter.

Read More...

Summary only...

Be careful what you wish for.

Its the safe move.

It's what we used to call a "beige choice" in college - easy, vanilla, risk-free.

But a wise man once told me, before I even understood what it meant:

"No balls, no babies."

Will Papelbon be a solid closer? Of course he will. He may not put up the Hall-of-Fame numbers he did last year, but he'll certainly be one of the most effective closers in the league. Unless he pitched yesterday, of course. Or if we need two innings, sorry, he won't be available for that. But absolutely - the twenty pitches he gives us every other night will be nothing short of magical.

And of course it is naive to think Paps has been miraculously healed by the Florida sun and some freshly squeezed orange juice. But it is just as naive to think he is now healthy! Unless the Sox docs (the Dox?) were lying to us in the fall, Paps' shoulder is a cause for concern, and will continue to be a cause for concern for the rest of his career. The front office has obviously decided it is better to appease the old guard of "This is the year!" fans who will erupt at the first blown save than to protect the career of an excellent young pitcher. Who cares if Paps' shoulder falls off in the offseason - this is the year!

There is a bigger issue at play, however. Now that we will be graced with cameo appearances from Mr. Papelbon on a bi-nightly basis, Tom in Boston's "Gong Show" has been rescheduled to air every fifth day.

The Sox obviously assume they are dealing from a position of depth in regards to their rotation in moving Paps to the pen. Remember the last time we heard great things about the depth of the rotation? Don't think back too far...it was only one year ago that the Sox went into spring training with seven, count 'em, seven starting pitchers. From such depth, the Sox were able to deal Bronson Arroyo and let a young starter named Jon Papelbon wait his turn in the bullpen.

That depth panned out so well in the regular season that Kyle Snyder only had to make ten starts, Julian Tavarez got the nod for six, Lenny Dinardo got the baseball six times, Jason Johnson took the hill six times, Kason Gabbard got four chances to strike fear into the opposition, Kevin Jarvis saw his name at the top of the box score thrice, David Pauley had three chances to be a footnote on SportsCenter, and Devern Hansack's parents had two chances to see their little boy start a game as a professional. That's 40 starts (25% of the season...incidentally the same percentage of blown saves Clemens suffered) that we're punting on this season; 40 chances for Tito to give the regulars a day off on a Sunday afternoon and hope for the best tomorrow.

And that's just now that we don't have a fifth starter. What if Beckett gets his blisters back, or Schill blows out his back, or Wake gets a hangnail? Now we have two days of five without a real chance at a W.

But there is always a silver lining, of course. At least under these circumstances, our boy Paps knows in advance which days he won't need to worry about protecting a late-game lead.

Read More...

Summary only...

Pap Is Free At Last!

What a day. On Tuesday, I planned on writing something about Manny the Used Grill Salesman. I scrubbed that idea on Wednesday when my offspring called me out. In fact, I had already written my response to the 9.5 Theses and was planning to post them today. But that will have to wait until next time.

Today is Emancipation Day!

The Sox finally came to their senses and made the only decision they could make...and one they should have made from Day One. The Hostage has been released. Pap is back at the end of the pen where he belongs. The Red Sox staff is much better off for it.

So much for the first of Kevin's "Theses."

To review Theses #1 postulated that "Starters are more valuable than closers." Kevin ended his statistics-laden analysis that a good starter is better than a good closer with this question: "Would you rather have 200 innings (13% of a season) of top-ten pitching, or 35 saves instead of the 25 to 30 you'd get from the next best closer?"

Theo, Tito and the Red Sox organization's answer? "Uh...We'll take the saves."

And for good reason. Here's what I wrote last night in response to Thesis #1 prior to today's great news.

"Yes good starting pitching is crucial. This year's Sox staff can be terrific. But Kevin misses my point. Without someone on the back end to close out games, a ton of quality seven and eight inning starts are going to be wasted. I think we can all agree that if each of the Sox starters pitched 225 innings this year, it would be awesome and probably unprecedented. But even with that Herculean workload, with 32 starts for each, that would still average out to only 7 innings per game. A lot can happen in those final two innings.

Let's take...oh...Roger Clemens as an example. In his final three years with the Sox (94-96) Roger was 9-7, 10-5, 10-13 and was accused of being fat and out of shape. In those three seasons, his ERA's were 2.85, 4.18, 3.63. According to Diamond Mind Baseball, in Roger's career with the Sox, he turned 147 games over to the bullpen with a lead. The Sox arson squad in those days blew 37 of them. That's 25%. So my point is not that starting pitching is not important, it's that it can be totally neutralized without some coming in and nailing down the wins. (Pap held hostage: Day 31)."

My point was reinforced by former Met GM Steve Philips who appeared on ESPN's Mike Felger show today after the announcement. He basically started with the same assumption as Kevin, that Pap could give the Sox 200 solid innings as a starter as opposed to 80 innings as a closer. But he went on to say that it doesn't work that way. He stressed that by putting Papelbon back in the closer's role, the Sox would be "protecting" potentially 800 innings (200 innings each from Schilling, Matsusaka, Beckett and Wakefield). He stated that without a solid closer, many of those innings would be wasted without someone to nail things down in the end game.

Philips also said that earlier in the day before The Announcement, someone asked him in an interview if the Yankmees had anything to worry about from the Sox. He answered that the Yanks would only have to be concerned if two things happened: 1) Beckett regains his National League form and 2) Papelbon goes back to the closer role. We're halfway to giving New York something to think about.

Which brings me to my final point. What was this entire charade about anyway? I have a theory and I believe it was borne out in one of Pap's quotes today. In announcing the decision it came out that Papelbon went into Francona's office and asked to be put back in the closer's role. Tito went on to say that "if the team had any doubts about Papelbon's health, it wouldn't have mattered that Papelbon wanted to close. He would have walked Papelbon right out of his office if that had been the case."

Despite all the protestations, I believe the real issue behind all this was that Pap wanted to start. The Sox realized that the kid was lights out last year but he was still going to be making only about $350K this season. I think Paplebon went to Theo and Tito and said something like, "Look if you're not going to pay me, can you at least let me be a starter again?" The Sox then used the flimsy medical excuse as a reason to appease the young star without having to come up with any additional cash. Pap going in today and asking for the role back took the Sox off the hook and let them do what they wanted to do all along but didn't for fear of upsetting their young stud.

Either that or Our Lady of Lourdes made a miraculous appearance in Fort Myers, sprinkled some healing water in the whirlpool at City of Palms park and...poof!...the shoulder was all better.

Please. Don't be naive.

In either case, let's not quibble about the process. Let's rejoice that all's right in the Sox pen and that the Sox sterling starting staff may have a chance to put up the numbers we think they can.

Now as for Julian Tavarez as the fifth starter? That brings us to the next obvious decision the Sox have to make. Jon Lester held hostage.....

Read More...

Summary only...

Kevin's 9.5 Theses

We are just about a month into this noble experiment and our loyal readers everywhere are about to get a glimpse of the arguments that pepper almost every conversation my father and I have regarding our national pastime.

I have enjoyed getting my father's opinions in print so that when the arguments get turned around in three to six months, I'll have his opinions formally recorded in writing to throw back in his face - a luxury I did not have growing up. (For those of you keeping score at home, we are currently on day 8,684 of "Smarter Baseball Fan Held Hostage By Stubborn Father" watch.)

So I am nailing my 9.5 Theses to the doors of the house I grew up in to outline the major points of contention between the old guard and the new.

1. Starters are more valuable than closers.
One of his favorite sayings, especially around the playoffs, is "Good pitching beats good hitting," to which I agree. I disagree with his apparent assertation that "a little timely good pitching beats lots of regular good pitching." Last year as a closer, Paps put up 68 innings of 0.92 ERA baseball and notched 35 saves. An excellent season for a closer, for sure. Let's say we can strech him out to 204 innings this season as a starter (three times as many innings as he pitched last year, but also exactly how many innings Josh Beckett threw). We can't expect him to maintain that miniscule ERA over longer outings. But even if his ERA triples, he'd still have a 2.76 ERA - which would have been one-hundreth of a point better than Johan Santana. If it quadruples, a 3.68 ERA would have been the ninth best in the AL last year. Would you rather have 200 innings (13% of a season) of top-ten pitching, or 35 saves instead of the 25 to 30 you'd get from the next best closer?

2. Bunting is generally stupid.
A major issue, although I'm beginning to win this one out, I think. I was raised to always move the runner over no matter what - but with the hitters in the American League today, that out you sacrifice to move a runner into scoring position just isn't worth it. I always smile when these small market teams lay down a bunt in the third inning to advance a runner from first to second...thank you for the out, see you next inning.

3. What happened in little league can in no way be compared to major league baseball.
"Kevin, they'd be better without Manny on the team, no matter how well he hits. He's tearing the clubhouse apart!"
"Tom, they don't care! As long as he keeps hitting, it doesn't matter what he's like off the field!"
"Kevin, you've had bad teammates. Remember our 10-year-old Cardinals team in 1993? Bad chemistry killed us!"
Because ten-year-olds playing little league baseball is a reasonable comparison to multi-million dollar professional-athelete grown men.

4. Hindsight is fun but not fair.
See his entire review of Theo's tenure. He acknowledges but glosses over all the good stuff, but spends several paragraphs covering Ramiro Mendoza and Javy Lopez the catcher who was the only available catcher at the time - but don't let the facts get in the way.

5. A player's value can be judged beyond what they did in today's game.
"Tough error for Lugo out there tonight."
"That guy sucks."
"What do you mean? He's been fine all spring!"
"Sucks. Where's Alex Gonzalez?
"Alex Gonzalez put up an OBP of .299 last year."
"Ya, but Lugo sucks. Should trade him for a bucket of baseballs and call it a day."
"*Sigh*"

6. Sabremetric statistics are superior to the counting stats of old.
Wins and batting average and saves versus OPS and VORP and range factors. I embrace the new wave stuff, he embraces fielding ratings based on Strat-O-Matic baseball cards. What can you do.

7. Plate discipline is an asset.
I think a tightly turned double play is the definition of poetry in motion. My guiltiest pleasure in a baseball game, however, is watching a good hitter work a ten-plus-pitch at bat. Youk is the best at this, especially considering he's not a great hitter - he'll just flick out his bat ten, twelve, fifteen times in a row, until he gets the pitch he wants and just pokes a little base hit out to right field. With all these pitchers on strict pitch counts and bullpens woefully understaffed for the middle innings, the key to success is accumulating pitches. Tom never minded when Nomar would swing at every first pitch he saw.

8. Strikeouts aren't always a bad thing.
Also known as the Mark Bellhorn debate. With a runner on first, I would rather have the batter strike out than hit a ground ball, because the ground ball would lead to a double play. Of course I'd rather see a base hit, but if the guy is going to make an out, just whiff and keep the runner alive. In 2004, Bellhorn led the league in strikeouts but only grounded into 8 double plays in 523 at bats...which kept innings alive for two guys named Ortiz and Ramirez.

9. Trot Nixon was awesome.
And they should retire his number.

And a half... Spring training statistics don't mean a thing
This won't be an ongoing argument because ST mercifully wraps up in a couple of weeks, but I am tired of seeing 3 2/3 innings of spring training pitching being used to assess the value of a signing!

Let's put it this way: What if one of the guys we signed hit .354 in 65 at-bats in Fort Myers, could field all the infield positions, and was fast enough to pinch run? Tom in Boston would be thrilled, right?

Well, no one was thrilled in 2004 when good ol' Caesar Crespo put up that line in Spring Training, then proceeded to bat a lusty .165 over the first 80 ABs of the regular season.

Spring Training doesn't mean anything. Talk to me when the games count - then we'll see who was worth what.

Read More...

Summary only...

Taking Stock

With Opening Day only two weeks away, I thought it would be a good time to take a look at the state of the Sox as they stand today. And with all the interest in the volatile Stock Market the past two weeks, I decided I would evaluate the club using some familiar Wall Street terminology.

Let's ring the opening bell and take stock of each member of the likely Sox opening day roster and whether they are hot buys, dogs or somewhere in between after four weeks of Spring Training.

Blue Chips: David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Curt Schilling, Kevin Youkilis, J. D. Drew.
As far as Ortiz and Ramirez are concerned, we will not be swayed by the past month's spring performances (hitting .176 and .231 respectively). Regardless, these two are the heart of the Sox order and will put up the numbers once the season begins. Schilling has allowed only two runs and sports a 1.93 ERA as he begins his "contract run." Youk is red hot, hitting .387 with a .500 OBP as is Drew who is hitting .409 (Teddy Ballgame anyone?) with a .727 slugging percentage. You can feel comfortable putting your grandmother's retirement nest egg into these "sure things".

Emerging Growth: Jonathan Paplebon, Daisuke Matsusaka, J. C. Romero, Javier Lopez, Hideo Okajima, Kyle Snyder. If Pap were in his correct role (True Closer Pap held hostage Day 28) he would be at the top of the Blue Chip list. But with the organization's stubborn resolve to not utilize one of their better weapons, Pap is still a work in progress as a starter. That said, he sports a 2.08 ERA and will be effective for the first month or so he is in the rotation before returning to his proper spot at the back of the bullpen. Dice-K has shown flashes of what he can do and there is no reason to believe he won't turn into the solid starter we all expect. Meanwhile, the Left Trio of Romero (1.35 ERA in six games), Lopez (1.17 in six games) and Okajima (2.35 in six games) continues to be lights out. This will certainly come in handy against the Yankmees as opposed to last year when the Sox cleverly went into the biggest series of the season last August against the heavily lefty laden Bomber lineup WITHOUT A FREAKING LEFTY RELIEVER. That plan worked well, eh? Snyder continues to intrigue with a 2.45 ERA in three games. As has been well chronicled, the former first pick of the Royals is out of minor league options so he either has to make the club or the Sox will lose him. The most likely scenario would be a trade for a reliever. Hmmm, can he close? These all represent good buys with great upside.

Undervalued: Josh Beckett, Alex Cora, Eric Hinske. In the amazing world of diminished expectations, Beckett continues to fly under the radar. Lest we forget, he was traded for the rookie of the year and potential future MVP candidate in the NL so we really need more value than a 5.01 ERA. That said, Beckett seems to have learned his lesson and has been using his off speed pitches more and sports a 3.09 ERA in nine innings. He might emerge this year as the stud the Sox traded for. Supersub Cora is hitting .313 and continues to be great insurance if the it turns out the Sox have overreached on Dustin Pedroia's readiness. Let's not forget that Cora was a starting shortstop at Cleveland before he came to Boston. Hinske doesn't get many headlines but can be a crucial piece of the puzzle this year. He can play first, third and the outfield and is hitting .292 this spring. All three represent good value with a strong "buy" recommendation.

High Risk: Manny Delcarmen, Brendan Donnelly, Julian Tavarez, Tim Wakefield, Craig Hansen, Mike Lowell.
Delcarmen (6.75 ERA), Donnelly (6.75) and Tavarez (4.66) are three of the Gong Show participants in the farsical "Let's-find-a-closer-no-wait-we-have-one-of-the-best-but-we- can't- use - him" competition. None has inspired much confidence. MDC is dangerously close to spending his career as a borderline reliever on the Pawtucket to Boston shuttle. Donnelly talks tough but has coughed up nine hits and five runs in 6 2/3 innings. Tavarez is whacky enough to close, but he has given up eight runs and seven hits in 9 2/3 innings. Not exactly what you want to see coming in for the ninth inning with a one run lead. Wakefield probably belongs in the Blue Chip category but he has yet to show he has recovered from his injuries of last year. He's allowed 15 hits and 6 runs in 9 innings so the jury is still out on Wake. Hopefully Hansen was just a victim of the "Cla Meredith Rush to the Majors" Disease and he can turn into the closer the Sox envisioned. Still touch and go at this point. Lowell was outstanding last year but will he revert to the mandatory throw in that he was in last year's Beckett trade? He is still sparkling defensively, but like most of the Sox lineup this spring, he is not hitting, sporting a .212 average. Buy into these "stocks" at your own peril.

Overvalued: Julio Lugo, Dustin Pedroia, Jason Varitek, Joel Piniero, Wily Mo Pena. At around $25 million, this group costs about $10 more than the Marlins spent on their ENTIRE roster last season. The Sox have been in a lather to get Lugo for years and now they have him. Be careful what you wish for. He is definitely an upgrade from Crisp in the leadoff spot but he is only hitting .243 with a .300 OBP. Defensively, he is SEVERAL grades below Alex Gonzalez and he has been particluarly Manny-like on the basepaths. He will probably work out but not worth $9 million. After being burned by letting David Eckstein go, the Sox are bound and determined that Pedroia will represent the same type of player. The problem is he hasn't done it at the major league level (see: final month of 2006). He is currently hitting .219 and is being given some time off by Tito. Tek is the best game caller in baseball and still strong defensively, but has become pathetic offensively. Despite what Scott Boras promised prior to Tek signing the four year $40 mil contract three years ago, catchers do wear down after age 35. Tek has two hits all spring and is batting .105. Looks like we are g0ing to have to settle for a great emotional and intellectual leader with solid defense that will also represent a gaping black hole at the bottom of the lineup. Piniero was a joke signing from the start. As someone pointed out on the Mike Felger show last week, if you're going to throw away $4 million on a washout like Piniero, why wouldn't you just take a $6 million flyer on a proven commodity (obviously health permitting) like Eric Gagne. Although he has looked better of late, Piniero is simply an overpaid journeyman who is destined for long/middle relief. Pena is another case of Theo falling in love with a player despite all reason. (See: Renteria, Edgar). Every day they don't trade him his value continues to go down. He will hit monstrous home runs but will strike out twice a game. Through Sunday, Wily Mo has 7 hits, no HR and 9 K's in 28 AB's. He can't hit an offspeed pitch. If you can get Cordero for him, Theo should do the deal yesterday. You can't invest anything else in this group.

Junk Bonds: Coco Crisp, Doug Mirabelli. Last year Crisp was crippled by the finger injury. He showed some flashes last spring and the first week of the season before being hurt. But this spring he has been anemic as well. He has five hits so far this spring with a .179. The Sox threw in the towel, along with $9 million on Lugo, on the Crisp-as-leadoff -man experiment. Coco can run down a lot of balls in the alleys, but he better catch them on the fly since his arm is positively Damon-like. Hopefully he can help what might be a pathetic bottom third of the order for at least a year until Jacoby Ellsbury is ready. Mirabelli better have a picture of Wakefield on his bedstand, since he is a blocked knuckler away from being out of baseball. The fact that NO ONE in the world except Dougie can catch Wake is a whole other story. Statistical Note: Josh Bard with San Diego 93 games, .338, 9 HR, .406 OBP. Mirabelli 14 games, .193, 6 HR, .261 OBP. And let's not forget Mirabelli also cost us Meredith (1.07 ERA in 50 innings). Wake needs to win 15 for this to be worth it. Sell, Sell, Sell and cut your losses.

Overall, the Sox look like a good buy with a top of the line starting rotation. They are not hitting, but they will. The only big hole is at the end of games, and once Pap is back there, this team should be poised for a strong run.

Read More...

Summary only...

Bad news.

So less than a month into this project, my computer is taking a stint on the DL.

Last night I got the famous "Blue Screen of Doom," followed by a message informing me my hard drive was no longer available. What fun. In any case, I do not have a computer available for a couple of days at least. Right now, management is refraining from putting me on the 15-day...but these are the kind of kinks you want to work out in the springtime so you don't have to deal with them during the regular season.

Read More...

Summary only...

Dice K Diary: Outing vs O's

With apologizes to Bill Simmons of ESPN.com for blantantly ripping off his "Running Diary" format, I decided to chronicle last Sunday's outing by Sox sensation Daisuke Matsusaska which was telecast live on NESN. Here we go:

1:05- Nothing says spring more than the return of Don Orsillo and Jerry Remy who are so far superior to any other baseball announcers that it isn't even funny. Beautiful sunny day in Fort Myers with the Sox wearing their formal home whites playing the O's. Opening day isn't far away. Dice K dealing on the mound in his second start against major leaguers. Remy quickly notes that being in the same division as the Sox, the Orioles want to get a look at Dice K so they have brought their A team including Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora, Miguel Tejada and Jay Gibbons, which figures to be the top of their lineup come the regular season. This should be a good test for the 26 year old.

1:06- Dice K looks strong out of the shoot hitting 93 on the gun. Roberts starts off with a harmless fly ball to Coco Crisp in center.

1:08 - The Dice man is humming as he paints the outside corner with a 93 mph heater to catch Mora looking for his first strikeout of the day.

1:11 - Dice K gets the side in order by embarassing the lefthanded hitting Gibbons on two gyroballs/changeups that dipped like dying quails away from him. The fans go wild as Gibbons flails feebly for strike three.

1:15 - Bottom of the first and NESN wheels Tom Werner and John Henry into the booth with Don and Jerry. They both have more money than God but resemble department store mannequins standing behind the two announcers. Thankfully, the audio is horrible and you really can't hear a word either one says, especially Henry who speaks barely above a whisper.

1:18 - Don brings up the new Red Sox/Nascar affiliations. Great. Nothing like good NASCAR talk in the middle of a ball game. In a whispering monotone, Henry describes how exciting it was when the Fenway racing team won the California 500 a couple of weeks before. He expresses the same excitement as someone changing a lightbulb.

1:25 - On the mound for the O's is Steve Traschel, one of the arms that is supposed to bolster the Baltimore staff this year. Seeing as he had a 4.97 ERA in the AAAA last year with the New York Mets, I'm not that concerned. He was 15-8 but we have experience in Boston with pitchers coming up to majors from the NL and getting hammered in the AL East. He is getting indoctrinated pretty quickly as Lugo, Youk and Ramirez load the bases on some solid contact. JD Drew, hitting .462 this spring steps up.
Don brings up the closer situation and Henry asks Jerry who he thinks will close. Remy responds that if the season were to start tomorrow, he would go with Tavarez, but a lot will happen between now and then. Side Note: True Closer Jonathan Papalbon Held Hostage: Day 24.

1:26 - Bases juiced. Nixon would have popped up for sure in this situation last year. Drew strikes out looking on the sixth pitch of the at bat displaying his good plate patience.

1:29 - Bases loaded, two outs. Tek up. Harmless dribbler back to mound to end the inning. I love Tek but he scares me to death in the sixth spot in the order. He's still hitting under .150 and showing no signs he will bounce back from last year's disaster at the plate.

1:32 - Top of the second. Manny lollygags back and to his right to make a nice play on a Tejada liner.

1:34 - Ramon Hernadez drills one off Dice K's glove for an infield single, the first O's hit of the day.

1:35 - Another beautiful curve on the corner. Dice K was advertised as having great control and he is showing it now.

1:37 - The camera picks up a sign over one of the exits for Shan San Rolls and another behind the plate for Funai DVD's. Sox are working hard to make back the $103 million investment in Dice K. How about the Bisuteki Seventh Inning Stretch?

1:43 - Shot of Bill Belichick sitting next to Tim Wakefield in the dugout. Then a shot of Scott Pioli talking to Tito on the top step. Hopefully Pioli was explaining how important it is to do what's best for the team and not the individual. i.e. Get Pap back in the bullpen.

1:45 - Bottom of the second. Mike Lowell drills a base hit and Alex Cora laces a double down the right field line to put runners on second and third. Welcome to the AL East, Steve. By the way, there's no pitcher hitting in this league.

1:46 - Lugo grounds to 2nd to score Lowell from third. Julio will be a great upgrade from both Crisp and Youk in the leadoff spot. He will however "nomar" the crap out of the ball at short.

1:47 - Youk rips a two out double to left scoring Cora. If pitching is supposed to be ahead of hitting at this time of the year, I can't wait to see what the Sox will do to Trachsel come June. Note to Youk: Kill the beard and mustache. You look like one of the Smith Brothers on the cough drop box.

1:48 - Papi pops up to end the inning but the Sox lead 2-0.

1:51 - Dice K looked dominant in the first two innings but in the third he is starting to struggle. Unheralded John Knott drives an outside fastball over the fence to make it 2-1 Sox.

1:52 - Ex Sox Adam Stern singles to left on an off speed pitch. Stern for empty tank Javy Lopez last year. Another Theo gem of a trade.

1:55 - Stern steals second. Remy points out that Dice K has a slow move to the plate and we will see this more if he doesn't change something.

1:56 - Stern moves to third on a sacrifice fly to mid center field. Is that Damon back in center? Crisp has an equally awful arm. How long before Ellsbury moves up to the bigs?

1:57 - Remy notes that Dice K is not afraid to throw off speed pitches when he is behind 1-0, 2-1 and says that is why he is so effective. Do you think Beckett is listening to the broadcast?

1:59 - Dice K blows Mora away with an inside fastball after catching him looking the first time on an outside fastball in the first. Nice. 41 pitches so far, 29 for strikes.

2:05 - Bottom of the third. Sox leading 2-1. Drew pops out after his looking K in the first. Hmmm. Has Trot come back from Winter Haven to reclaim his uniform?

2:06 - Another feeble at bat for Tek. Easy grounder to second for a force out. No way he can bat sixth. Before long he will have to be moved to the eighth or ninth slot.

2:14 - Top of the fourth. Dice K throws a biting curve to Tejada on a 2-0 count. Miggy fouls it off harmlessly. Can someone please teach Beckett Japanese? Tejada fights off the next pitch and loops it into right for a single. Drew fields it just in front of him on a short bounce. Trot would have dived for it. Of course he would thenwould have been out for a week to ten days with bruised ribs.

2:15 - Dice K does a nice job sawing off Ramon Hernandez who dribbles one back to the mound. Dice K wheels and fires. Into center field. Instead of two outs on a double play and no one on, the Orioles have runners on first and third with none out.

2:18 - Corey Patterson sacrifice fly to Drew ties the game at 2-2.

2:20 - The immortal Jason Dubois drills another high fastball over the wall in right center to give the O's a 4-2 lead. How do you say, "You're not in the Pacific Coast League anymore" in Japanese. Remy points out that Dice K doesn't have the zip on the fastball.

2:25 - Tek guns down Knott trying to steal to end the inning and the Dice man's work for the day. Final line: 4 innings, 6 hits, 4 runs, 3 strikeouts, 0 walks, 3 earned runs, 65 pitches, 43 for strikes.

2:29 - Shot of pitching coach John Farrell talking with Dice K. The interpreter is right there but Farrell is clearly talking directly to Matsusaka. I am going to like Farrell. He looks like he knows what he is doing.

3:35 - Dice K press conference. He says after the first two innings, he was starting to experiment with the O's both to test out the strike zone and to get a feel for a division opponent. Great answer, even if it's not true. He says he wasn't confused on the double play ball, but just made a bad throw. He said he was excited and happy the O's brought their regulars. He also said as he gets to know the runners he will start using a better slide step to prevent them from stealing. That's a relief. He also said he learned in the third and fourth innings that throwing high fastballs is dangerous. Good lesson to learn. He said he is not worked up about the home runs. He said teams will score on him at times and he is not overly concerned.
Overall he handled it well. Just the way you would want. The kid will be fine.

Next start on Friday against the Dodgers.

Read More...

Summary only...

The spring's first taste of the Crimson Hose

Being an out-of-market fan during the sparsely televised Spring Training season means living through reporters, bloggers, and message boards to get my baseball fix until Opening Day. My only opportunity to see the Olde Towne Team strutting their stuff this spring is during this evening's Yankees/Red Sox showdown.

So I hustled home from work, brandishing my Sox hat on the express train to really get in the mood. I ran up the stairs, flipped on the Steinbrenner's propaganda network YES, and was greeted with one of the classic signs of spring...

...a New Jersey Nets pregame show.

I realize that its just spring training, but how can you not figure out a way to get the first Yankees/Red Sox showdown of the season on live television? As it was, I bitched and fumed about how obviously New York is a second-tier baseball town until the 11 o'clock tape delayed start time. Absolutely disgusting. Good thing this city has eight sports teams - the better to accomodate all the pink hat fairweather fans that populate this farce of a sports town.

Anyways, I suppose I should be happy they were kind enough to put this game on at all. I'm sure there's an Islanders retrospective floating around somewhere that's looking for some air time.

You have to love that the Sox have trotted out the first team for this exhibition. I know they're doing this to save all the regulars a travel day tomorrow morning, but I'm sure Tito and the boys would like to fire the first salvo in this year's battle.

Anyways, I'll just list off some thoughts here as I reunite with my most favoritest franchise in all the world...

*They look lost without Trot Nixon. I'll just get that out of the way now.

*Wake getting killed in the way only Wake can - getting dinked and dunked on bleeders and bloops. You can feel a little better about this outing knowing that Timmy has absolutely nothing to gain or prove in spring training and is probably thinking about golf between pitches.

*I'm not sure I buy Youk's goatee. I do, however, love that they're actually going to let him bat #2 and resist the urge to put the quicker and less disciplined Coco Crisp behind Lugo. David Ortiz will be the greatest benefactor of Youk's OBP because the shifts he'll be facing are significantly less dramatic with runners on base.

*Ortiz looks huge, and I like that.

*The YES announcers are absolutely terrible. They literally just compared Manny chasing that triple into the corner to the way Little Jack Horner played right field. As in, "Little Jack Horner, sat in a corner." Can they pipe in Remy, please?

*Crisp looks real good tonight, and I'm going to go out on a limb and say its the high socks. Could be the first signs of a breakout season for him.

*What number do you think Pedroia will take when he officially gets the invite to the big club? I believe he wore #7 in the minors, but I heard the Sox are retiring that number. I think lil' Dusty should pull a Ray Borque and don #77.

*I know. I know someone is wearing #7. Leave me alone.

*In hindsight, I think the Pavano/Armas for Pedro deal was a pretty good one.

*Youk is locked in. Great contact, smart pitch selection, bad facial hair...a throwback to the "Cowboy Up" gang from a more innocent time.

*I really do think Drew is going to end up being a super-Mueller. I really think he could be an All-Star this season...if he can stay healthy until the break.

*These Spring Training hats are miserable, and they look terrible on the Yankees. The Sox make a real smart decision in having the stupid little inserts and the trim be solid red. For what its worth.

*They're interviewing Joe Girardi on the YES broadcast right now. I wonder if he's at the stadium to get the dimensions on Joe Torre's office and maybe drop a few boxes off.

*I love the way Donnelly throws the ball. I think I'm going to pretend for the rest of the season that the front office decided to sign Eric Gagne as a reclamation project after all and gave him #53.

*YES just threw up a graphic titled "Boston Massacre II," detailing the 5-game series last August. They must have lost the graphic detailing the 2004 ALCS.

*I can't remember the last time the Sox had two lefthanded relievers in the pen who weren't just specialists. Should provide a lot more flexibility against these lefty-heavy teams like...the Yankees.

*Dinger for the New Pro. Just keep drinking your milk and taking your vitamins, J.D..

*How many times has Pedroia gotten gunned down on the basepaths this year? He probably should relax a touch.

Alright, I think I'm calling it a night. I got in six quality innings of work, which is pretty good for a spring training outing. Once the regular season starts and the games are on during the correct hours, as they generally are in true baseball markets, I'll be able to go much deeper into games.

But seriously...how great is it to have baseball back?

Read More...

Summary only...

Tito's Managing Quite Nicely, Thank You

Listen. Do you hear that? What? You don't hear anything? Well that's the sound of Terry Francona's critics. There simply aren't many of them.

Amazingly, entering his fourth year in the white-hot glow of the Red Sox Nation spotlight, Tito has managed to avoid any groundswell of criticism. Sure, there are the usually nattering nabobs of negativism, as former VP Spiro Agnew would say, on SOSH who would complain about the taxes they had to pay if they won the lottery, but overall the topic of Tito's managing ability has become virually a non issue. And with good reason. He has done a great job.

This in a town that prides itself on chewing up and spitting out its skippers. If Tito lasts through this season, which there is absolutely no reason he won't, he will be only the second Sox skipper in the last 20 years to make it through at least four full seasons. (Jimy Williams, 97-01, is the other)

When Grady Little was properly toasted after gagging in Game Six, there was a significant number of people who thought his canning was the wrong move. "He won 188 games in two years," they screeched. "Are you going to bring in someone who is going to do better than that?"

Well...yes.

How about 193 wins, a World Championship in his first year and a virtual Division Championship tie in his second. Tito's winning total in 2004-05 is the most of any manager in Sox history over their first two years at the helm. Just a tad better than Grady's two second place finishes and his "bone in the throat" performance in the post season.

Which brings us to the critical difference between Tito and prior successful Sox managers: his ability to come through in the clutch. Despite being down 0-3 to the Yankmees, Tito kept control and proceeded to manage flawlessly over the final 8 games to capture the World Championship. Many experts feel Francona clearly outmanaged his more heralded counterparts Mike Sciosia, Joe Torre and Tony LaRussa in that dazzling postseason.

Compare that to some historic post season performances by previous Sox managers.

Little's meltdown is well chronicled.

John McNamara basically blew the 1986 World Series by removing Roger Clemens in game six (although McNamara insists the Rocket asked out due to a blister) and by leaving Bill Buckner in the game in the final inning even though all season he had substituted Dave Stapleton at first in those situations. Less publicized was McNamara's mismanagment of the pitching staff in Game Seven. Game Seven was moved back a day after a rainout and Mac scratched scheduled starter "Oil Can" Boyd and went with lefty stud Bruce Hurst on three days rest. But when Hurst tired in the fifth and gave up three runs to tie the game, McNamara came back with a shaky Calvin Schiraldi, who had been ineffective in Game Six and whose knees could be heard knocking in the far reaches of Shea Stadium. Schiraldi gave up a tiebreaker homer to Ray Knight, the first batter he faced, and ultimately gave up three runs while recording only one out. A well rested Boyd never even warmed up.


Darrell Johnson, Sox manager from 1974-76, probably cost the Sox a World Championship in 1975. The Sox tied the series at three games apiece on Carlton Fisk's memorable homer in the 12th inning of Game Six. Spaceman Bill Lee was cruising with a 3-0 lead in the sixth in Game Seven when he threw his famous (infamous?) Leephus blooper pitch which Tony Perez crushed over the green monster to make it 3-2. Perez would later tie the game by singling home Pete Rose. With the score still tied and no one on base in the eighth, Johnson inexplicably pinch hit for Jim Willoughby who had been pitching effectively. Going into the ninth with the score still 3-3, Johnson had his whole staff available including ace reliever Dick Drago. He chose untried rookie Jim Burton who promptly walked Ken Griffey Sr. who scored on a Joe Morgan blooper that looked eerily like the one that Jorge Posada hit off Pedro in Game Six in 2003. Another World Title botched.

We can even go back to 1948 when manager Joe McCarthy was faced with choosing a starting pitcher for a one game, winner take all playoff against the Cleveland Indians for the pennant. McCarthy incredibly went with journeyman Denny Galehouse instead of rookie staff ace Mel Parnell. To put that in modern terms, that would be today's equivalent of starting Julian Tavarez instead of Jonathan Papelbon. Galehouse, who had been used in relief most of the year, lasted four innings and was lifted for a pinch hitter trailing 4-1. The Indians rolled to an 8-3 victory that captured the American League Championship.

So far, Tito has avoided any such bizarre decisions and delivered the championship that had been so elusive. He also did a great job keeping the clubhouse together last year when the wheels came off of a promising season, which speaks volumes about his carry with his players. No one blamed him for last season, nor should they.

The big test for Tito will come this year as he deals with the pressures of meeting the expectations that come with a $160 million payroll. But based on his track record, there is no reason to think he won't come through again.

Read More...

Summary only...

My two cents.

The readers have spoken.

The closer situation in the Boston bullpen has ignited a firestorm of responses from our loyal readership, and it would be irresponsible for me not to throw in my two cents. While I sit here in New York and listen to stories about how the allegedly-37-year-old Mariano Rivera is adding a changeup to his repertoire of pitches (which entails a fastball and a cut fastball, by the way), the Sox are apparently on the verge of starting a show on NESN in the style of You're The One That I Want where the winner will become the Beantown stopper.

(Side note: What would this show be called? Closing Time? Stop the Bleeding? Dennis Eckersley's Smile Time Variety Hour?)

But here's a revolutionary idea that will have the old man (stop calling me junior!) tearing his distinguished salt-and-pepper hair out of his head.

Why do we need a closer?

Everyone knows the closer by committee was an unmitigated disaster. However, the problem was not with the concept; the problem was with the personnel. You are looking at a bullpen that season that, before Byung-Hyun Kim and then Scott Williamson entered the picture, featured Embree and Timlin. Here is a list of everyone else who made five or more appearances out of the bullpen in 2003: Brandon Lyon, Ramiro Mendoza, Todd Jones (pre-resurrection), Jason Shiell, Chad Fox, Steve Woodard, Bronson Arroyo (only 6 appearances), Scott Sauerbeck, Bruce Chen, Robert Person, Rudy Seanez, Hector Almonte, and Kevin Tolar.

I can't believe that didn't work.

Now here's the difference. The real closer-by-committee concept works with a relief ace rather than a closer and dismisses the completely useless and artificial statistic of "saves." It can easily be proven with those scary "statistics" that a three-run save should have a special statistic of its own: "wasted appearance." Anyone in your bullpen should be able to get three outs before surrendering three runs. Those aren't the times we need our stud pitcher to be eating innings.

On the flip side, we've often heard it said that the most important at-bats in the game can occur as early as the sixth inning. This is true, but the current socialist "closer" model discourages managers from employing the players best suited for the situation at hand because the hayseeds who are too lazy to look up what VORP means refuse to accept that a "closer" should be in the game unless we're in the ninth inning.

The way to get around this situations is to not have a definitive closer, but instead a steady stable of arms with various skills that will suit every situation that occurs.

Let's say we make Mike Timlin our bullpen ace. No one will question the manager if he uses someone like Timlin to get out of a bases-loaded jam in the sixth inning to maintain a one-run lead. If we make a splash to get someone (take Cordero, for instance), and he makes an appearance in the sixth inning, all the traditionalists will be screaming for blood.

(Don't get me wrong, I think Cordero would look great on this team this year. But, as I've been saying, I think Theo is building this team towards an internal motto: "Great in '08." Between Hansen and Bryan Cox, a Sox farmhand out of Rice, the front office thinks it will find its next Papelbon. And quite frankly, what are you going to have to give to Washington to make that trade happen? Cordero is young and cheap, and the Nats are working towards a new stadium...how could you sweeten the pot enough to slip him away?)

In any case, I actually do believe the Sox are going to be okay. Is this the best situation in the world? Of course not. Would I love a shut-down closer? Who wouldn't? But in the long run, am I willing to make a major sacrifice to improve this position from what we currently have? I don't think so.

Timlin, Donnelly, Piniero, Okajima, Tavarez, Romero, Delcarmen/Hansen. That's not bad; its certainly a long way from Timlin/Embree/Lyon/Fox/Mendoza/Shiell/Chen.

Hmm. I wonder who was the guy in charge of making that improvement since 2003?

Read More...

Summary only...

Theo's Pitching Picks: Armed and Dangerous

So how's the "Let's pay washed up starter Joel Pineiro $4 million and make him a closer" experiment working out so far?

Let's see....three games, 3.1 innings pitched, 6 hits, 5 runs (4 earned), 1 homer, 3 walks, 1 strikeout and a 10.80 ERA.

(Pause here for projectile vomiting).

Too early to panic? Based on Theo's track record, I don't think so.

The Boy Genius clearly has connected on more than a few position players. David Ortiz was a grand slam, while Bill Mueller, Kevin Millar, Todd Walker, Mark Bellhorn, Orlando Cabrera, Dave Roberts and Alex Gonzalez have all been solid hits. But when it comes to picking pitching talent, Theo has clearly struggled below the Mendoza Line.

You can make a case that when you discount the obvious no brainer decisions (Curt Schilling, Keith Foulke, Daisuke Matsusaska-we'll assume this one will work out), Theo has made the right call on only three pitchers - Mike Timlin, Mike Myers and David Wells. To be charitable, let's call Frank Castillo, Chad Bradford, Scott Williamson and Julian Tavarez servicable.

After that? Oscar winning horror show. As gruesome as it may be, let's revisit Theo's Greatest Misses.

In 2003, the youngest GM in the history of baseball brought us Ramiro Mendoza, the Embedded Yankee, who allowed an eye-popping 62 runs in 96 innings in 2003 and 2004. That year also heralded the arrival of Byung Hyun Kim from Arizona which looked good at the time if for no other reason than it ended the hair brained "Closer by Committee" scheme. Kim ultimately proved to be an overrated NL hurler who couldn't win in the AL (a recurring theme in Theo's tenure). Kim picked up 12 saves and posted a 3.31 ERA for the year. Theo cleverly reacted by resigning Kim to a 2 year $10 million deal in January of 2004 and converted him into a starter. He posted a 2-1 record (that's $2.5 million per win for those scoring at home) with a 6.23 ERA before Theo finally dumped him on the Rockies for a bag of balls in March 2005.

But the coup de grace that first year was Theo's brilliant deadline deals that essentially ended up being two months of Jeff Suppan (3-4, 5.57 ERA) and Scott Sauerbeck (0-1, 6.48 ERA) for top prospect Freddy Sanchez . The slick fielding shortstop went to the Pirates and hit .291 in 2005 and captured the NL batting crown with a .378 average in 2006.

In 2004 Theo latched on to Lenny Dinardo in the Rule V draft and wrapped him around Tito's throat for the entire season. It took them two more years to finally realize that he was useless. And for a lefthander, that takes something. That year Epstein also brought us Terry Adams (19 runs in 19 games) and the inimitable Mark Malaska (21 hits and 12 walks in 20 innings pitched).

In 2005 Theo unearthed another load of "treasures," led by the $25.5 million panic signing of Matt Clement. The only good news here is that Theo overpaid for Clement because he lost out to the Yankmees on Carl Pavano, who turned out to be a bigger bust than Clement. At least Matt gave us a solid half year. That year Epstein also gambled on Wade Miller (4.85 ERA in 90 innings) as well as Mike Remlinger (14.85 ERA in 6 games before he was taken out of town in a body bag) and Chad Harville (6.43 ERA in 8 games).

Then on to last year's Horribles Parade. Rudy Seanez, Jermain Van Buren, Jason Johnson.

Which brings us to Theo's current crop of arms. In addition to Piniero, who the Mariners couldn't wait to get rid of, we have Runelvys Hernandez who has a 27.00 ERA in his first two appearances and JC Romero who may or may not work out.

Which brings us back to the closer fiasco. Pineiro is not the answer. Timlin broke down last year. Hansen is hurt and Manny Delcarmen (5 runs and a 16.87 ERA in 2.2 innings pitched) is headed on the fast track back to West Roxbury. Who's left? Brendan Donnelly? Tavarez? Please.

Let's cut the crap here. It's about time to end this American Idol closer tryout farce and put Jonathan Papelbon back in the closer's role. Eliminate his back to back appearances, limit his pitch count and Xray his shoulder after every appearance if you want, but get him back in the bullpen where he belongs. Take the shackles off Jon Lester, slot him number five in the rotation and let's get on with it.

We have a pennant to win here.

Read More...

Summary only...

Spring Training for all

We spend all winter waiting for spring training to start. We literally count down the days until a large moving truck departs Kenmore Square and makes the long trek down Route 95. The day pitchers and catchers report looms on the horizon as a beacon of hope and rebirth from Halloween to Valentine's Day.

And once they all arrive? We wait a little more.

Sure, now we get some AP wire pictures of guys in embarrassing spring training uniforms (the batting practice hats this season are an all-new eyesore) running around and laughing like a bunch of high school kids meeting back up after a long summer apart. Once a week, our favorite pitchers will fire off about 30 game tosses, mostly focusing on refining their mechanics instead of making outs. Position players take an at-bat or two and then hit the golf course.

Spring training is like a stuffed animal to an upset child. The kid yells and screams and complains for their toy, and once they have it they are content. We up north, having spent a cold winter huddled around the hot stove, are simply relieved to know that baseball is being played somewhere. We may not be able to see it, and the players may not be terribly concerned with the outcome, and players like Chris Smith may be the pitcher of record for the local nine (did you know Chris Smith was a member of the Boston Red Sox? Did he win a contest?), but those crimson hose are getting dirty someplace. And, in a month, the games will count, and the emotions of diehard fans will once again be manipulated on a daily basis by a group of grown men playing a children's game.

Until then, baseball will float under the radar. Pitchers will work on their location, batters will work on their pitch recognition, and bloggers will expand the range of their columns. For now, its not the results that are important - it is simply about getting the repetitions and knowing that baseball is only a cutoff throw away.

Read More...

Summary only...

The Wisdom of Crowds

It was something you would expect to read in a Dan Shaugnhessy column.

"...Schilling himself laid it on the line earlier this week when he told me that his reporting weight of 248 pounds was 'not the weight I wanted to be at. But I also knew I’d be there on Opening Day.' And he should be held to that promise by Red Sox fans. It’s that simple....Now he has promised he’ll be in better shape by Opening Day. If he delivers, good for him, good for the Red Sox. If he fails to deliver on this latest promise, Sox fans will have to choose between getting on his case or giving him a lifetime pass based on the events of 2004."

But it wasn't Shank, taking another shot at his favorite punching bag. It was Steve Buckley who has pretty much laid low since acting as chairman of the "Run Nomar Out of Town" Committee in 2004. But there he was, in Thursday's Herald, calling out the Boston fans to actually give Curt a hard time just because, as Tony Massarotti put it, Schilling "looked like he ate Dustin Pedroia."

But Steve, here is a clue. It ain't gonna happen. The Big Schill does indeed have a "lifetime pass" earned in 2004. He is pretty much bullet-proof in Boston, as well he should be for risking the balance of his career in October 2004.

But it got me to thinking. What is it exactly that makes a player a hit or a miss with the fans? Why do the fans love some players unconditionally but then just as quickly treat others as if they just mailed anthrax to their kids' elementary school?

Looking at Curt's treatment in the past and probably as long as he wears a Sox uniform, it must be based on delivering the goods. If you perform at the top of your game, and become a key factor in the Sox winning something significant - like a World Series Championship perhaps? - then you are in the good graces of the fans forever. Right?

Well then how do you explain Keith Foulke? No question that the Sox would not have won in 2004 without Foulkie, but once the results weren't there, the fans ditched him faster than Britney dumped KFed. Yep. That must be it. The fans will love you as long as you produce, unless you have a bad attitude and act with distinterest toward the game.

Bingo. That's it. Because even though Manny has displayed as much passion for baseball as he does for doing his laundry and takes the occasional midseason sabbatical, he can do no wrong in the fans' eyes because he puts up .315-30-120 numbers. Once the numbers fade, like Foulke, the fans will turn.

Okay, then what's the deal with Trot Nixon? No one would argue that for the past two years, Nixon has been a shell of himself. He was as fragile as a Ming vase and his power numbers evaporated faster than Enron, but the fans still worshipped him. Fans are in mourning that the Sox didn't resign him, although by any measure, the old Dirt Dog couldn't perform any longer. So why the love? Must be the effort. Yea, that's it. Put in the effort and the knowledgeable Fenway Faithful will stick by you through thin and thin and thin.

Right. Ask Mark Bellhorn about that. Bellhorn was just as Dirt Doggie as Nixon. Tried his butt off and wouldn't say excrement if he had a glove full of it. But once he started doing his imitation of a ceiling fan, whiffing more in one year, than Wade Boggs did in his whole career, the Sox fans turned on him. They hooted and hollered and essentially ran him out of town. How come? He tried hard and got dirty, didn't he?

Perhaps he was too quiet. That must be it. Sox Fans like their players with a little pep and vinegar. Like Orlando Cabrerra. There you go. Featuring a handshake for every day in the week and displaying the enthuiasm of a seven year old at recess, OCab endeared himself to the fans in 90 days. He still gets standing ovations when he returns. So that's the key. Be upbeat, open, easily accessible and the fans will adore you.

Not so fast, right KevinMillar? Sure Millar was popular for his first two years, but his act wore thin after his production dropped and he began making like Terrel Owens when he didn't play. He became the embodiment of the old country/western song: "How can we miss you when you won't go away?" No on second thought, we prefer the strong silent type.

Like Bill Mueller. Nicknamed "the Pro", Mueller was quoted about six times in his three years here, but the fans respected and cheered him relentlessly. Another of the 2004 gang. They hated to see him leave in 2006. But that's the way we like our players. Quiet and self effacing. Be seen and not heard. That's the ticket.

Like Edgar Renteria? Well, not exactly. An allstar shortstop when he got here, he got the benefit of the doubt from the Fenway fans to start the year, but when he turned into croquet wicket at shortstop, the honeymoon was over. We wanted more life - and production - out of him. And we let him know about it. We turned him so inside out that he ultimately blamed the Fenway turf for his problem.

So what's the point? Who knows how the crowd ultimately makes its decision. There are many reasons, both rational and emotional. But one thing is sure. Buck's calling for Schill's head? Not going to happen. The Crowd knows better.

Read More...

Summary only...