Wily Mo? No!

Thankfully, the Wily Mo era has ended. The trade to the Nationals for a bag of balls and a gift certificate to Home Depot was the best Theo could do to unload his white elephant. I have been vocal most of the year that Wily Mo was not going to make it in Boston in the American League and needed to be shipped out. His play both at bat and in the field increasingly resembled someone trying to play the piano with boxing gloves on.

Many feel that the trade for Pena in exchange for Bronson Arroyo stands as Theo's biggest mistake to date. (We will have three or four more years to decide on the Lugo/Drew moves.) However, despite my whining about Wily Mo this year, I don't agree.

I was actually in favor of the move when Theo made it in the spring of 2006.

Hindsight is always 20/20, and the naysayers are now out in force frying Theo for the Wily Mo gamble. And make no mistake, it was a gamble. But when you look at the situation in early 2005, the move made sense.

Wily Mo had potential with a capital "P". He represented young, strong righthanded power, something the Sox had precious little of in the system at the time. They still don't have any as evidenced by their dogged pursuit of Jermaine Dye at the deadline and the signing of Bobby Kielty, who will never remind anyone of Manny Ramirez.

Theo saw an opportunity to perhaps "steal" a 23 year old who had already hit 51 homers in 302 games. Sure he struck out more than the Wild and Crazy guys on Saturday Night Live, but Theo felt confident that under the tutelage of Papa Jack and the influence of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez he could develop some plate discipline and pummel the big green monster.

Unfortunately, none of it happened. He can't hit a breaking ball, which was transmitted around the league quickly and he could never get enough at bats to learn. Frankly I don't think he will ever get the hang of it, but in the fastball happy National League with the Nationals, he might actually flourish. The problem is going to be finding a position for him to play because he clearly is a terrible fielder.

Simply put, it just didn't work out.

But what did the Sox give up? The longer Bronson Arroyo has been away, and the more futilely Pena played, the greater the ability of the long haired pitchered continued to improve in people's minds. His red hot start in 2006 didn't help Theo's rep much either.

But the fact of the matter is that Arroyo was a fifth starter, especially in the American League, who by the time of the trade had been figured out by most teams, especially those in the AL East. Sure he would have been nice to have in 2005 when the wheels came off and the Sox were destroyed by injuries. But do you really think he would have made the difference and kept the Sox in contention? Not.

Let's look at the numbers. Arroyo started off roughly in 2004, but by the end of July, he sported an ERA of 4.08. He actually improved on that as the Sox captured the pennant and he ended the season with a 4.03 ERA. However, that was his peak. His downturn actually began in the 2004 postseason when he allowed 11 runs in 12.2 innings for a 7.82 ERA. His most notable effort was being on the receiving end of ARod's tomahawk chop in the ALCS.

Arroyo started 2005 well, sporting a 3.70 ERA at the end of April. But from there, it was straight downhill. Here are his month ending ERA's for the rest of 2005. May - 4.07, June 4.21, July 4.23, August 4.44, September 4.54. All his stats from 2004 to 2005 were negative. He allowed more hits 213-171, runs 116-99, HR's 22-17 and walks 54-47. He declined in strikeouts 142 -100 and wins 14-10.

He was clearly on the downslope. With the apparent pitching depth Theo had, the low cost Arroyo was the best chit he had. He took a shot. Big risk. Big reward. Didn't work out. But realisitically, if Arroyo had stayed in Boston, you would have been looking at a series of post-all star game Julian Tavarez starts. He was fast approaching the time when he would not be able to get AL hitters out.

And don't be fooled by his quick start in the watered down National League to start 2005. It took a while for the befuddled, feeble NL clubs to adjust to his hellacious curve ball. But after rushing out to an 8-2 record with a 2.31 ERA in June, Arroyo dipped a bit and finished 14-11 with a 3.29 ERA. Nice numbers. But he would not have come close to those in the AL East.

This year, as NL hitters have gotten used to him, Arroyo has crashed back to earth. As I write this, he sits at 5-13 with a 4.63 ERA. Care to imagine what those numbers would look like in the DH-populated, more talented American League? Yikes.

So Theo took a flyer. In reality, as much of a folk hero people want to make of Arroyo, it was really a case of nothing ventured, nothing gained. Too bad.

Good luck in Washington, Wily Mo.

P. S. - Despite GAGne's third meltdown, the Sox magic number is down to 36.