"Gagne" is French for "Win"

I've always been a huge Eric Gagne fan, and I couldn't have been happier when the Sox spun two-month wonderkid Kason Gabbard for the big closer. If Gagne pitches to form, this trade could be viewed in years to come on a similar level to the 2004 trade deadline deals that defined Theo Epstein as a general manager.

In the interest of full disclosure, I do confess that Gagne falls into major man-crush territory for me and has since his breakout days in Los Angeles. How can you not love a hefty, bearded, bespectacled closer who screams after strikeouts and has a delightful French-Canadian accent and a last name that literally means "win?" Its impossible. Without even looking at his performance, Gagne is the kind of personality I love to see on the Red Sox.

After looking at his performance, or at least the level of performance we should expect, we should have no reservations about being downright giddy about the guy. Sure, he isn't the dominant flamethrower he was before his surgeries, but he is a guy who has icewater in his veins and a solid changeup to boot.

His performance since arriving in town, however, has risen some justifiable concern, culminating in his explosion in Baltimore on Friday night. This is a guy aquired to shut down the games once they hit the seventh inning, and he was unable to put away a marginally-talented Oriole team? This appearance does not auger well for his 2007 stretch run, and one can only hope he just had a bad night as opposed to something more troubling and long-term.

Whether Gagne's struggles are a result of injury, team transition, or general distaste for being a setup guy, he needs to right this ship quickly. The Sox are in the fortunate position of not needing him to be a savior - the bullpen was the strongest element of this ballclub before the move, and his addition was just icing on the cake - but a healthy and effective Gagne could absolutely be the difference between a dramatic pennant race and a hand-ride to the rail this season.

We already have one tally in the loss column from the big guy. Let's hope that's the only one.

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Sox Must Deal With Lester Problem

During Spring Training, when the "Jonathan Papelbon as starter" charade was still being played out, I strongly urged that Paps be returned to the back end of the bullpen where he belongs and that Jon Lester, who looked strong despite being only months removed from his recovery from cancer, should be inserted into the fifth spot in the rotation. Kevin in New York, quite correctly, argued that this was folly and argued that Lester was nowhere near ready for that. The Sox brass held that same view and the young lefthander was sent to the minors to work his way back to the big club.

With the disintegration of Julian Tavarez-as-starter, Lester was brought up last month to compete with Kasson Gabbard for the final spot in the rotation. With the trade of Gabbard, Lester now owns that final number five spot. There is only one problem.

Lester is still not ready.

There is no questioning Lester's courage in coming back from the lymphona that attacked him last year. He has worked hard to get another shot in the majors. Unfortunately, the results have not been there. Even though the lefthander is 1-0, he sports a 6.43 ERA and is heading in the wrong direction.

He can't get ahead of hitters and as evidenced in his start at Anaheim, he has become eminently hittable. He is fooling no one. His inability to throw strikes has resulted in some ungodly pitches per innings averages. In his first start, he averaged 16 pitches per inning. It stayed about the same in his second outing at 15.6. It went to 19.8 pitches per inning against Seattle and soared to 30 pitches per inning against the Angels. Overall, in four starts he is averaging 18.5 pitches per inning.

You might say that he is not yet in shape and should improve. Again, there is no evidence that this is the case. Last season, he displayed the same frustrating tendency to throw too many pitches. In June of last year he averaged 19.8 PPI. He reduced it to 16.5 in July but zoomed back up to 21 PPI in August before he was shut down after his illness was diagnosed. His 2006 average? 18.6 pitches per inning.

Sound familiar?

This could be a case of a young pitcher learning to pitch compounded by a serious illness. If so, he will improve and could be a solid major league starter. If not, it could also simply be a case of a pitcher who will always be what he is. Not ready for prime time. A Brian Rose or Jeff Sellers or Tony Armas Jr. Guys who projected to be major league players, but who just never made it. What Bill Parcells used to call a J.A.G. - Just Another Guy. That happens.

What is clear is that a decision must soon be made about the number five slot. Tito cannot ccontinue to run out a five inning pitcher every fifth day and risk burning out the bullpen. He may have to look to someone else to jump into the rotation. But what do the Sox do now as they prepare for the stretch drive in a pennant race? Sadly, they don't have many options.

If they want to stay at the major league level, they can flip Lester with Kyle Snyder. Snyder has major league experience as a starter. He currently sports a 2.91 ERA and has given up only two runs in his last appearances. He has been solid and might work in the number five spot. Lester could then go into the long relief role and perhaps find a groove. They could go back to Julian Tavarez but I think we've seen enough of that movie.

If the Sox elect to dip into the minors, the pickings aren't very robust. David Pauley and Devern Hansack both have major league experience, but have been unimpressive recently pitching for the Pawsox. Pauley is 0-2 in his last four starts, giving up 28 hits and 10 runs in 23 innings pitched for an ERA of 3.91. Hansack has been worse. In his last four starts, Hansack is 2-1 allowing 22 hits and 11 runs in 22 innings pitched for a 4.50 ERA.

Big righthander Mike Burns has been better. The 6' 1" 210 pounder is 1-0 in his last three starts allowing only11 hits and 3 runs in 20.2 innings for an ERA of 1.34.

But the most impressive starter at Pawtucker recently has been the phenom, Clay Bucholtz. In his last three starts, all no decisions, Bucholtz has allowed only 12 hits and 5 earned runs for a 2.60 ERA with 25 strikeouts and 4 walks.. In his last two starts he has pitched 13.1 innings and struck out 18 while walking NONE. ZERO.

It would be quite a risk for the Sox to bring up a young pitcher who started the year at Double A and throw him into the middle of a pennant race, but they did it with Papelbon two years ago and Lester last year. Desperate times call for desperate measures. Now is the time.

Bring on Bucholtz.

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Patience wears thin

Its a marathon, not a sprint.

That's what I keep telling myself, but losing these games in such devestating and embarassing fashion night after night makes me want to go ahead and run right off a cliff here at the proverbial 18-mile marker.

Maybe its just that this particular team is skilled at losing in spectacular fashion. They went through a stretch earlier this summer where they lost a lot of games where they would fall behind and subsequently be unable to put together any offense. The new script for late-summer sweeps features total disasters for the home town team on a nightly basis. As a particularly gut-wrenching counterpoint, the Yankees seem to have scored well over 750 runs over the course of their current 26-game win streak.

Unlike my father, I don't get angry during these streaks. Maybe its because I'm younger, or maybe its because my mother probably would have moved out of the house if both he and I reacted that way to summer Sox swoons. In an effort to complement his external outbursts, I cultivated a more introverted, throbbing frustration that sits on my shoulders like the burden that it is. These traditional August West Coast trips, which are almost always disasterous, tend to team with the paralyzing humidity to make me completely useless for the better part of at least a week. And that's where I am right now.

Perhaps we should take some solace in the fact that we did in fact take two of three in Seattle? Or that our next five series leading to a climactic end-of-summer showdown with the Pinstripes are with Baltimore - Tampa Bay - Los Angeles - Tampa Bay - Chicago? Or that, even if we choke on the rest of tonight's game and lose tomorrow by 15 runs, we'll still wake up on Thursday with the best record in major league baseball?

No, I don't have the optimism in me right now. This type of loss, in this type of weather, has taken the fight out of me. The Yankees will be within five when we wake up, and its completely possible they could overtake us by the time we visit the Bronx.

I hope they wake up before then. I'll be counting down the days until September.

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Keep On Comin' Yanks - Please Make It Close

Seeing how emotional I am regarding the Red Sox, you would think that the fact that in the last month, the Yankees have played .733 ball versus the Sox .555 and have chopped 4.5 games off what once was a double digit lead for the Sox in the AL East lead would be causing me to go mental. Yes, I realize the Bombers have fattened up on a ridiculously cupcake schedule and have made their run largely by going 16-6 against the Devil Rays, Royals, White Sox and Blue Jays. The fact remains, we can see them clearly in our rear view mirror and they are certainly larger than they appear.

However, I am strangely calm. I actually am happy that the Yankees are coming on like a freight train. In fact, I believe that tightening the race further is actually a good thing. As a matter of fact, before this is over, I hope the race comes down to the final week.

Have I lost my mind? Not at all. I've just checked out the numbers. (Which Kevin from New York keeps telling me is the proper way to analyze baseball.)

The ultimate goal here is a World Championship, correct? An AL East title would be nice, and we certainly want that first round Fenway Park advantage, but what we really want is another Duck Boat Parade and a cruise through the 365 Bay State cities and towns with a matching World Series Trophy.

That being the case, we all should be rooting for a death-defying, dog-eat-dog, right to the wire battle for the AL East crown with the hated Yankees.

I've checked out the margins of victory in division races since 2000 and identifed the team in each league that ended the season with the largest division race margins. (There are fifteen teams for the seven seasons since there was one tie). The numbers are irrefutable. The larger the margin of victory in the division, the less the chances of taking home a World Series title.

Of those 15 teams, six lost in the first round League Division Series (LDS). Six lost in the League Championship Series (LCS). Only three made it to the World Series and only one captured the championship. And that one posted the SLIMMEST margin of victory in their division race of all 15 teams.

There is also a correlation between the size of a Division Race victory and how early the teams have exited the playoffs. Of the 15 teams, the average margin of victory for those teams that lost the LDS, the FIRST ROUND, was 11.5 games. The number for losing the LCS was 10 games. Those teams that made the World Series had division margins of 9.5 games. And as mentioned, the team that had the tightest division race of the 15, the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks, won the division by only two games and went on to take it all.

Let's look as some of the first round flops.

The two teams with the largest division margins of victory, Atlanta in 2002 who won the NL East by 19 Games and the 2003 Giants, who won the NL West by 15.5 games, both lost in the opening round of the playoffs. The Braves lost 3-2 but the Giants managed only one win in losing 3 games to one.

Other first round losers included the 2006 Yankees (won AL East by 10 games, lost 3-1 in first round), 2004 Minnesota (won AL Central by 9 games, lost ALDS 3-1), 2000 SF (won NL West by 11 games, lost NLDS 3-1) and 2000 Chicago White Sox (Won AL Central by 5 games, lost ALDS 3-0).

So to recap. 40% of the teams that ended up with their league's largest division race victories, went down in the first round. And only one of them managed to win MORE THAN ONE GAME in the series.

Some great regular season teams also never made it past the LCS. In 2001, Seattle won 116 games and their division by 14, but managed only one victory in the ALCS, bowing out 4-1. The 2002 Twins won 94 games but captured the dreadful division by 13.5, but lost in the ALCS 4-1. The 2006 Mets won 97 games and their division by seven, but came up short 4-3 in the NLCS. The 2005 Angels (95 wins, won division by seven), 2005 Cardinals (100 wins, won division by 11), Atlanta (won 92 games and division by 2) also all dropped out by losing the LCS.

The 2004 Cardinals won 105 games and their division by 13, but I think we all remember what happened once they made it to the World Series . Can you say broomed?

The 2003 Grady Little-propelled New York Yankees won 101 games, took the AL East by 6 and lucked into the World Series before suffering their just fate at the hands of Josh Beckett and the Marlins in a seven game series loss.

So the message is clear. We don't want a division race runaway. We don't want a leisurely romp to the division championship. History shows us that this is a road to ruin. No matter what a manager might do, that type of victory clearly dulls the edge of the best of teams.

What we need is for the Yankees to scare the absolute bejesus out of the Sox and its fans. Make them keep their edge. Understand that it is life and death every night. Make us chew our fingernails to the knuckles. Keep looking over our shoulders for the lurking Bombers. Just like this weekend. Before every game against a solid Seattle team, the Sox went in knowing the Yanks had again bludgeoned the hapless Royals and they needed a win to maintain their lead. That is excellent pressure for them. It will keep them sharp. The result? The Sox took two out of three from a Mariner team that has dominated them. That type of perfomance, and pressure from the Yankees, will steel us for the playoffs.

A former professor of mine once said that the only tension-free environment is six feet under. Tension and stress are good. It will keep the Sox playing hard and get them ready for the post season cauldron.

It may not be the best thing for the collective nerves of Red Sox Nation, but it will prove to be the best medicine for a successful post season for the Sox. So come on Yankees (gulp), keep it up.

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Thunder, Lighting, and Red Sox Baseball

Just as the smell of freshly cut grass signals the start of a new season and the foliage marks the end, the trade deadline and the dog days of summer are best punctuated by torrential downpours and lightning illuminating the sky. And even now, nothing takes me back to my childhood more quickly than listening to baseball on the radio during a sweltering August thunderstorm.

A lot of Boston natives loathe these West Coast games and their unnatural 10pm start times, and I dislike many elements of them as well. Especially devestating are those games that fall in the middle of the week and require your full attention - I've never seen a Wednesday work day ruined more completely than by an extra-innings loss in Oakland on Tuesday night. Especially after a hundred games, our weeknights have been set like clockwork - get home from work, change clothes, grab some dinner, and pull up a chair for the seven o'clock game. West Coast trips take both players and fans out of their comfort zones.

But a quiet little corner of my mind has always loved these games, because they bring me back to as far back as I can remember. Tucked into bed, with my pillows lined up to see directly out of my bedroom window and into the illuminated night sky, as Castiglione and Trupiano kept us informed of what our boys were doing over three thousand miles away. I don't think the radio in my bedroom was ever used for anything other than these specific games.

I assumed this exact same position for a Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, and Curt Schilling. I listened to the count get worked by Wade Boggs, Bill Mueller, and Kevin Youkilis. Even as I moved to college and then New York, I always kept this tradition - when the thunder clapped, I turned off the television and went to the radio.

So when it started to trickle this evening around eight, I had a feeling what I was in for. Sure, the romance of those suburban nights are gone - instead of an old-fashioned radio I'm streaming the radio feed on mlb.tv, and instead of a clear suburban night I have a fine view of a giant railroad upright while car alarms whine up and down the street - but the principal is the same.

Across the continent, Jon Lester is digging in. And I'm taking a nice long stroll down memory lane with my umbrella and a transistor radio.

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Slumbering Sox Need Awakening - Cowboy Up Two?

Yes, they won last night. Yes, they got Eric Gagne and the Yankmees didn't. Yes, Curt Schilling looks healed and ready for the stretch drive. Yes, they sport all those wonderful stats that Kevin in New York can rattle off so impressively.

But as true as all those things are, there is no denying that there is something missing from this team.

Call it heart. Call it drive. Call it whatever you like, but this Sox team is in dire need of it. With everything they have going for it, the Sox should not be in a life and death struggle to split two games with the Orioles, no matter how well they are playing lately. Be honest, once they fell behind 3-0 Wednesday night, how confident were you that they would come back? Once the opposition gets to 3 or 4 runs, you can almost pack it in. That simply should not be happening.

They have been wasting great outings from Josh Beckett and Dice K. They left another 11 men on base Wednesday night. And it's not just the fact that Manny hit into a double play and popped up on first pitches with runners in scoring position. Or that Wily Mo is as useless as a screen door on a submarine. (By the way, I love Tito, but why wasn't Eric Hinske in the lineup against a right hander instead of the Human Automatic Out? Was that Tito thanking Theo for getting him Gagne?) And it's not just that the Julian Tavarez-as-starter is obviously over. There is something more missing from this club.

You may laugh at it, but what I think they are missing is Kevin Millar. Okay, Kevin in New York, get up off the floor. Who else is going to shake this team out of its slumber?

This team has great character guys as leaders. Tek, Papi, Lowell are all revered father figures. Youk is the serious student of the game. Lugo might have the spark but he doesn't have the numbers to back it up yet. Manny? Pullease. Drew is bloodless and ineffective. Crisp is coming along from a performance perspective, but is afraid of his own shadow off the field. Pedroia can be the guy, but is too young to really take over a team yet.

In my last post, I compared the 2004 team to this year's team. Strictly by the numbers the 2007 team is BETTER! But they lack that intangible leader. That crazy big brother that will shake you up when you need it. They need a Johnny Damon or a Kevin Millar, and there is currently no one who fits the bill on the roster. Do not underestimate what those two meant to the championship run. Millar is goofy, crazy, media hog who can be a loose cannon and that is exactly what the 2007 Boston Red Sox need.

They can't get Damon, but they certainly could get Millar. Who would block a Pena for Millar waiver deal? Even the Yankees wouldn't bite on that one. And if they did, they could keep Pena and let him make a fool of himself in Yankee Stadium.

But there is more than just intangibles. Millar happens to be a better PLAYER than Wily Mo right now. Look at the NUMBERS. Millar is hitting .273 with a .386 OBP and a .444 slugging percentage. He can play first and he is a better right fielder than Pena, who continues to play the position like he is on roller skates.

So it's time to Cowboy Up Again! Or shoot some Jack Daniels. Or dye some hair. Or drag Manny into an interview. Or deliver a bag of dung to Tito. Or whatever. Millar will loosen them up. And make no mistake, the Sox, who are playing as if they are wearing tuxedoes, badly need loosening up.

Bring on Millar! Why not us?

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