The Playoffs Start NOW!

So you can't wait until the postseason arrives? Well, I have news for you. The playoffs start Friday night in a 2 of 3 series against the relentless Yankees. And for all our sakes, the Sox better start playing like their postseason lives depend on it. Because they do.

Ok. Enough of the life and death struggles against the Devil Rays and mismatched sparring rounds with the cream puff Orioles. It's time to play some Big Boy Baseball, to paraphrase Michael Felger.

People are getting giddy that the magic number for making the playoffs is in single digits (7) and is fast approaching the same for the division crown (11 with the Yanks' ninth inning loss to the Jays Thursday night). So maybe this series with the Bombers isn't so important. They're both going to the playoffs, right? Wrong, Aaron Boone-breath. This series is CRUCIAL for a number of reasons and it's time for this frustrating Red Sox team to knock off the crap and play like "The Team With The Best Record In Baseball" should play.

So how much is at stake in this series? Let's take a look.

1. Winning the AL East. Let's start at the top. The Sox come into the series with a 5 1/2 game lead with 15 to play, which should be safe enough. But don't kid yourself. The AL East is not over. With another three game sweep, the Yanks can pull to within 2 1/2 games with 12 to play and anything can happen from there.

"Oh all they have to do is win one game," I hear you say. That's what we said two weeks ago when the Sox wet their unis in the Bronx and rolled over like a bunch of Fido's in the three game sweep. In fact, the Sox have now lost four in a row to the Yanks and 5 of their last 7. They haven't won a series against New York since mid May. It's time for them to turn this around. Forget winning one game. They need to come out and win the series and send the pinstripes packing down 6 1/2 or 8 1/2 games with 12 to play. That's a statement they need to make.

There is a ton at stake in winning the division foremost being home field advantage in a dangerous five game series and the ability to decide whether they want a compressed or elongated schedule for the first series. Even though they don't have a dominant number two pitcher, they may still opt for the longer series, as Peter Gammons pointed out, to make Jonathan Papelbon available for more games. Don't underestimate this advantage.

2. Eliminating The Yanks. The Yanks are still on the edge of making the playoffs and the Sox can help push them completely out. They come in with a 2 1/2 game lead in the wild card race. If the Sox can take two of three or sweep while the Tigers have their way with the Twins, the Yanks can find themselves in a real dogfight to even make the playoffs. And deep down, don't we really want to see them out of this thing before it starts?

3. Winning The Confidence Game. Yea, I know the Sox are on a roll with a couple of come from behind wins over the improving Devil Rays, but let's face it, the Sox have been shaky for a while. With three-fifths of their starting rotation disintegrating before our eyes, the last thing the Sox need is to get humbled by the Yankees AGAIN and find themselves backing into the playoffs. That is a sure recipe for an early exit.

No, what they need to do is snap out of it and beat the BeJesus out of the Yanks. Dice K needs to suck it up and have a good game. Beckett needs to be Beckett. And Curt Schilling needs to be Greg Maddux. The best case scenario is that they win Friday and Saturday and come into Sunday night's game against Fat Roger looking for a sweep. (Don't worry. You won't miss the Pats-Chargers game. I'm sure Bill Bellichick will be taping it.)

The inverse can be disastrous. If Dice K melts down again, and the Yankees beat Beckett again and Fat Roger silences the bloodthirsty Fenway faithful, this Sox team will be toast. Derek Jeter and the Yankees already feel like the Sox are a bunch of chokers who they can beat any time they want. The Sox have to shake that overconfidence, if for no other reason than to set the right tone for the playoffs.

So we all need to treat this like Round One of the post season. And it all starts with Dick K Friday night. That can be a frightening thought, but he's been billed as a "Big Game Pitcher." They don't get much bigger than this.

In 72 hours, we'll know where we stand. Will the real Red Sox please stand up?

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Lucky 13

After the huge come-from-behind win by the home town team tonight, the magic number has dropped to 13. With the second-place Yankees heading to New England this weekend, the Sox have a golden opportunity to cinch their first AL East crown in over a decade.

Here are the simple numbers regarding this weekend's three-game set:

If the Sox win 0: Magic number remains 13 with 13 to play
If the Sox win 1: Magic number becomes 11 with 13 to play
If the Sox win 2: Magic number becomes 9 with 13 to play
If the Sox win 3: Magic number becomes 7 with 13 to play

As of this writing, the Wednesday and Thursday night games are included in the "13 to play;" in a perfect world, the Sox would win their game tomorrow night and the Yanks would lose twice over the next two days, which would take three more off the magic number.

In other words: The end is near, but don't get comfortable.

Before last night's game, the pundits all believed the East was a lock; a seven-run deficit later and many believed this team would probably get swept in the first round even if they're lucky enough to make the playoffs at all. Red Sox Nation has been burned before and is therefore more prone to wild bouts of skepticism, but a quick glance at the standings show that this team is the only franchise with a winning percentage over .600.

I know they are frustrating to watch. I know we have many question marks staring us in the face. I know we have some free agents that have underperformed and some marquee stars who are letting us down.

But in the end, this team wins games. I could parade some stats around, but those are easily dismissed when the going gets rough, so I'll try and keep this as simple as possible.

88 wins, 58 losses, 5 game lead, 16 games to play.

Now let's see if they can close one door.

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Ups and Downs

As we head into the homestretch, we can see the playoffs on the horizon. Now would be a good time to take a look at what is currently encouraging with the Sox and what should concern us.

The bad news is that most of the downs concern the pitching staff. Not good considering we have banked all year on the fact that we will have the better pitching in the postseason. So let's start with the bad news.

The Downs:

Being totally objective, it's tough to look at the current starting rotation without breaking into a cold sweat. After Josh Beckett and maybe the resurgence of Jon Lester (of course it's been four starts against the Orioles and Devil Rays), the rest of the staff should definitely give you a case of the Calvin Schiraldis.

Dice K: The rookie phenom has clearly hit the wall, Tito's protestations to the contrary. He is pitching on fumes and desperately needs a rest. Hopefully Tito doesn't believe the claptrap he has been serving up and seriously considers letting Dice K miss a start or two. He needs to recharge the batteries or he will be useless in the playoffs. Watching him get knocked around by the O's and Rays, how do you feel about watching him against the Angels and Yankees? How do you say Oi Vay in Japanese?

Tim Wakefield: In recent years, Wake has spent a stretch of time on the DL with some injury or another. He has avoided that this year...until now. He is a warrior, but if his effort against the O's is any indication, he is not ready for prime time.

Curt Schilling: The transformation of the Big Schill from power pitcher to John Burkett continues. As we have said, if anyone can be effective with an 88 mile an hour fastball, that would be Schilling, but this clearly remains a work in progress. Again, how do you feel about running him out there against the Yankee? Perhaps the Bombers will drown themselves drooling. Or there might be an injury or two as they battle to get to the bat rack. Scary.

Manny Delcarmen: Talk about the girl with the curl. When he is good, he is very very good. When he is bad, well you know how that goes. When I see him go out there I always feel we are a couple of four pitch walks away from disaster.

Hideki Okajima: See Dice K above. Okidokie has already appeared in 62 games. His highest total EVER in Japan was 58. Time for Tito to lay off for a while.

Eric Gagne: On the one hand, it's nice to hear that he was actually injured and that is the reason he was getting hammered. (Please don't buy that drivel that he overworked himself trying to work out of his problem and that he was tipping his pitches.) A stud closer like Gagne becomes ineffective for only one reason: he's hurt. And we now find out that was the case. The good news is that if this layoff allows him to come back healthy, we may actually have the bullpen we hoped we had on July 31.

Manny Ramirez: The Sox are doing fine without Manny against the Weak Sisters of the Poor who they have been playing lately, but they will need Manny in the post season. Please note that when they played a good team i.e. the Yankees, they lost three straight without number 24. This time off can work one of two ways. If he comes back healthy and refreshed, he can do serious damage in October. If he is not recovered, his absence creates a gaping hole in the lineup that could be fatal come playoff time.

Kevin Youkilis: He continues to play gold glove first base, but he is rapidly become absolutely Drewish at the plate. For the second consecutive year, Youk has worn down in the second half. This is an issue the Sox brass really have to address as they make plans for the future. As for the near term, his strike outs have begun to make him look like Mark Bellhorn. Another potential hole in a swiss cheese lineup.

JD Drew: Enough said. Huge disappointment. Get ready for a lot of ground balls to second and an occasional walk with runners in scoring position.

But the news is not all bad. In fact there are a few encouraging developments heading into the postseason.

Jonathan Papelbon: Tito has used him brilliantly this year and he appears ready to put together a Mariano Rivera/Dennis Eckersley/Rollie Fingers (for you old timers) type of post season. The key is, can the Sox lightweight lineup get him enough leads to save?

David Ortiz: Either through some key adjustments or just by getting more healthy, Big Papi appears to be rounding into his old Hero self. The pop appears to be back and if Manny can slip in behind him, we can hope for another clutch post season by Ortiz.

Coco Crisp: This is double good news. Coco is picking up his his hitting to go along with his yearlong outstanding defense just in time for the playoffs . That bodes well for the Sox in October. For the long term, Coco is increasing his trade value daily, something that will pay dividends in the offseason when Theo deals him. It is obvious that with the play of Ellsbury and the Albatross Drew contract that Crisp is the odd man out. I hate to see him go, but if he can bring back a couple of young pitching and a catching prospect, that would work out fine. Maybe Theo can work out a reverse Beckett, trading Crisp but making them take Drew's contract as well. Won't happen. Theo can't trade with himself.

Jacoby Ellsbury: Something tells me he will make a serious impact in the post season. As much as we all like him, however, he is not going to be a substitute for Manny, so let's not get carried away. That said, it will be nice to have him and his five tool game on the bench. Maybe Tito will stand up to Theo and play him instead of Drew.

Dustin Pedroia: The AL Rookie of the Year continues to hit, play defense and give this team the dirt dog edge that left with Trot Nixon. I really expected him to go out after Daniel Cabrera even though he was giving up a foot and a half. The fact that he didn't proves that he is smart as well as talented.

Mike Lowell: When you open the Baseball Dictionary and look up "Salary Drive" you will see a picture of Mike Lowell. He is making himself hundreds of thousands of dollars a day with his continued stellar play. From the beginning of the year, when the debate was how much less than 9 million would he accept to now when he has probably priced himself out of Boston (Shouldn't he be looking for Drew money at 14 million per year?). That's unfortunate since he has become the go to guy on this team. Short term, that bodes well for the postseason. It will be sad to see him go, if he leaves.

Overall, it will come down to pitching, as it always does. Tito has three weeks to get the staff ready. Time to build momentum for October.

The magic number is 14.

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Fan Support: A right or a privilege?

The other day, I was discussing J.D. Drew with a fellow Sox fan who is less than enamored with the enigmatic right fielder. When I took up the cross that the J.D. defense has become, the fan responded with something that got my mind working.

"I don't just root for guys because they're on the Sox. They have to earn it."

I'm sure by this point we've all heard the old Jerry Seinfeld and/or George Carlin bit about how all sports fans are just rooting for the laundry; the players change, the management changes, and the stadiums change, but the fan base and the name on the uniform stay the same. But do we blindly root for this laundry, or does the personnel in fact change our rooting interests?

For me personally, all players are "innocent until proven guilty," as it were. If they are playing for the Olde Towne Team, I will wholeheartedly support them until they give me a reason not to. I am strongly against booing somebody in the home stadium if they are unable to perform, although I wholeheartedly endorse booing for off-field transgressions, press statements, contract issues, or obviouslack of interest. It is under this caveat that I still continue to support J.D. Drew. For better or for worse, he is our guy, and during his tenure in Boston I will continue to support him.

When crossed, however, I am unforgiving in my lack of support. Jay Payton found his way into the doghouse for his dugout temper tantrum. Grady Little lost my support because of his general demeanor, and even his descent into indifference took over fifteen months. Roidney "HG" Harrison has now gone down the same path - I hope the Patriots succeed, but I won't admire him ever again because he is a cheater, just like Barry Bonds, Jason Giambi, and Shawne Merriman.

But when guys just flat-out suck, I feel that they still deserve our support. I may be in the minority here. I know my father applies to the "Sucks Until Proven Good Here" theory of fandom, supplemented with the "Has To Be Better Than The Guy We Have" corollary (currently being applied to the exciting Jacoby Ellsbury).

What is the proper methodology? In the end, no matter how much we as a Nation bitch about Drew, we will be thrilled the moment his patient bat wins us a big game.

But the moment he is no longer a member of the Sox, all the negative energy I've kept patiently under control can be released safely (for example: screw you, Wily Mo Pena). Until that day, he is one of us, for better or for worse.

And for all of our sakes, I hope its for the better.

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Random Thoughts...

Musings while watching the Sox cough one up to the Blue Jays

Is JD Drew EVER going to come through in a big situation? He failed again tonight whiffing with the bases loaded and one out in the seventh with the Sox leading 4-3. As the $70 million bust returned to the dugout Tito tapped him on the behind in encouragement. He should have whacked him in the back of the head with his fungo bat.

And speaking of failing, Kevin Youkilis then struck out right after Drew to leave the bases loaded and kill a golden opportunity to put the game out of reach. Predictably, the Jays went on to tie and then win the game. Poor Youk has been in a steady death spiral in the second half for the second straight year. After being the team's most valuable position player in the first half, Youk has fizzled down the stretch again. I thought he did some intensive training in the offseason so this wouldn't happen again. He'd better get a new trainer this year.

Thanks to a late surge by the Sox it appears they will make the playoffs one way or the other. But after talking all year long about how this team was built for the playoffs, shouldn't we be worried about the starting rotation? Beckett as the staff ace is the real deal but where do you go after that? Dice K is clearly out of gas in his first major league season in a five man rotation. Maybe if they can clinch early enough they can get him some much needed rest. Schilling is painful to watch and is a couple of starts away from being Mike Mussina. Tonight's effort against the Jays has been typical. He looks good for a while, then the 88 mph fast ball starts jumping off opposing bats like mortar rockets. Tim Wakefield has arguably been the number two pitcher on the staff but do you trust his back or knuckleball in a short series? They may have to. This is clearly a concern.

Why does Tito persist in resting Pedoria while running Lugo out there every day. Pedro is 23 years old. HE DOESN'T NEED ANY FREAKING REST! Since we now know that Theo is dictating decisions from the executive box, could he be mandating that his man crush Lugo has to stay in the lineup? What other possible logical explanation can there be?

I would never say this team does not need Manny, because they do, but hasn't the team looked crisper and more alert since he left the lineup? The outfield defense went up a couple of notches and there haven't been as many adventures on the basepaths. The lesson is that although Manny is one of the best right handed hitters in baseball history, he is not indispensable.

As for next year, where do we put Jacoby? I like Kevin in New York's idea. Send Drew into the offseason with a first basemen's mitt and tell him to come back ready to play first. Or does Theo have to clear that with Scott Boras? Unfortunately, because of the way Theo has mismanaged his payroll, either Youk or Lowell will not be back and that would probably leave the classy Lowell out in the open market. But since Drew and his albatross salary is not going anywhere, what choice do they have? Disgusting.

In an earlier post I urged the Yankees to make a race out of the AL East to get the Sox battle tested in anticipation of the playoffs. Looking at the numbers, the Sox clearly have played better when they have been challenged. They have played 54 games when their lead was 6 games or less. They have gone 35-19 in those games for a .648 winning percentage. In the 85 games where their lead has been larger than 6 games they have gone 49-37, a .563 clip. They obviously need to be pushed, something that will happen every night in the playoffs.

Don't you enjoy watching the Jays without Frank Catalanotto or Ted Lilly? Or when Reed Johnson is not playing? Although Gregg Zaun and Vernon Wells continue to be real pains in the butt.

Magic number is still 17 and we go to Baltimore for four while the Yankees vacation in Kansas City for three easy wins. This is not over. Don't you know deep down that it will come down to a frosty October series between the Sox and the Bombers for the right to play a four game exhibition series against the National League for the Championship?

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No need for "excitement"

With the September 1 roster expansion and subsequent infusion of youth on the Boston roster, an unnecessary level of expectation and pressure have been placed on the Sox superstars of tomorrow. And those expectations are not going to be tempered when one rookie casually tosses a no-hitter, followed by another going deep and securing the day's top Web Gem in a single game.

Can I make a request, though, Red Sox Nation?

Please stop saying you want these guys here because they are "exciting."


All I've heard and read in the Boston media over the past week or so is how "exciting" these guys are to watch. Jacoby Ellsbury has been the most prominent recipient of this comment, and I'm getting tired of it. The young center fielder is here because he put up an OBP of .360 in Pawtucket this year, complimented with a .298 batting average and .380 slugging and excellent defense.

If I wanted exciting, I'd watch an action movie. I want wins, and Ellsbury may contribute to that.

When the team was slumping, many wanted Jacoby to be brought up to the big club, which is a sentiment I agree with in theory. However, while others wanted him to do impossible and irrational things like "providing a spark" (what does that even mean?), I wanted him in a "Dave Roberts" capacity. And even that concession came with a caveat - if we called him up before September 1, who do we let go? Granted, in hindsight, we should have let Wily Mo go in the offseason; in real time, however, we were stuck with him and it wouldn't make sense to dump him when Ellsbury so desperately needed at-bats in AAA.

But now Ellsbury is in Boston with no repercussions. He's gotten all the playing time he could in the minors, and we don't have to move anyone to get him on the roster. He is a solid young player who may be next year's Pedroia, and he can provide a late-inning defensive replacement and/or pinch runner to the 2007 edition.

And of course he accomodates all those thrill-seekers with all the corresponding "excitement."

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