The 3-Man Rotation

For whatever reason, Major League Baseball has added many extra rest days to the post-season this year, allowing teams with short benches or shallow rotations to hide their flaws on the game's biggest stage. The Boston Red Sox must capitalize on this break from tradition and use only their three best starters in the quest for the club's twelfth American League pennant.

Much was made of Indians manager Eric Wedge's decision to call upon the mediocre Paul Byrd to start Game 4 of the ALDS rather than giving the nod to Cy Young hopeful C.C. Sabathia on three days rest. The move worked out for the Tribe; Byrd limped through five innings while Yankees "ace" Chien-Ming Wang, pitching on three days rest, got the hook from the outbound Joe Torre in the second inning.

The Sox will find themselves in the same position during the ALCS. There is a distinct possibility that Sox ace Josh Beckett could pitch in games 1,4, and 7. He has not pitched since blinding the hapless Angels on October 3rd, and he will take the hill in Game 1 on October 12, giving him eight full days of rest. If Tito keeps the big Texan to a reasonable pitch count, he could come out and pitch in Game 4 on October 16 on three days rest, then return for a possible Game 7 on October 21 on a regular four days of rest.

This setup would have Curt Schilling starting Game 2 (Oct. 13, 5 days of rest) and Game 5 (Oct. 18, four days) and Daisuke Matsuzaka pitching Game 3 (Oct. 15, 9 days) and Game 6 (Oct. 20, four days).

Lets look at another possible permutation that would avoid the short rest altogether and more than likely pass the Game 4 start to the achy Tim Wakefield, who hasn't been right in almost two months. Beckett would pitch games 1 (8 days) and 5 (5 days), Schilling 2 (5 days) and 6 (6 days), and Matsuzaka 3 (9 days) and the decisive Game 7 (5 days).

Putting Wakefield in the rotation also will force the young lefthander Jon Lester to serve as the team's long man in case of an early game explosion by any of the four starters. With three starters, Wakefield could assume the same innings-eater role he took during the 19-8 blowout against the Yankees in Game 3 of the 2004 ALCS. This would free Lester to be used as more of a middle reliever, picking up an inning or two later in the game or in extra innings. (As a side note, the New York Yankees are 4-13 in playoff games since Dave Roberts stole second.)

If we take this experiment another cautious step forward, a three-man rotation coming out of a seven-game series would allow Schilling to start Game 1 of the World Series on five days rest, with Matsuzaka taking Game 2 (four days) and Beckett taking Game 3 (five days). At this point, we'd need to have a Wakefield start in Game 4, followed by the Schilling-Matsuzaka-Beckett attack taking games 5, 6, and 7 on regular rest.

But even that is getting far ahead of ourselves. We already can expect that Eric Wedge will cleanly rotate his pitchers 1-4, as that's what he stuck to in the ALDS and he has no reason to change now. If the Sox went with three starters, the mismatches could be very helpful as the series goes on; we'd see Beckett/Sabathia, Schilling/Carmona, Matsuzaka/Westbrook, Beckett/Byrd, Schilling/Sabathia, Matsuzaka/Carmona, and Beckett/Westbrook. If the Sox can hang tough and take the series to seven games, I feel very good about Beckett's matchups in 4 and 7.

This Cleveland team is very good, with a pesky offense, two strong aces, and two young bullpen guns that can shut teams down in the middle innings. The Sox will have to exploit both the back end of the Cleveland rotation and their eminently hittable closer Joe Borowski if they want to capture the flag and have some quadruple-A expansion franchise over for an early Halloween party. A three-man rotation will be the best path to such an opportunity.

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Be Careful What You Wish For

On Sunday night, after the Sox swept away the Angels, WBZ-TV ran a poll to see who Sox fans preferred to see in the ALCS. More than 75% chose the Indians over the hated Yankees. Count me in that overwhelming majority. There is just one problem. The Indians were the much better team.


So if the Yankees are the weaker team, why didn't we want to meet them? Well, I can't speak for everyone else, but I didn't want to see the Bombers because they scared the absolute bejezus out of me. Call it the ghosts of 78 or 03 or simply being afraid of the bogieman. But I just felt, for some reason especially this year, that they Yanks had our number. And they knew it. Just as the Sox knew they would dismiss the Angels, the Yanks deep down felt they could beat this Red Sox team. Call it irrational, emotional, or just plain paranoid. That is the way I felt.

Plus I have had it with the Dramafest that surrounds all things Red Sox-Yankees. I just want a baseball game, not a Passion Play.

So instead, I wished for a Yankee loss (always an enjoyable event) and a Cleveland win. That happened. Now we have to tangle with the co-best team in the American League and by extension, the co-best club in all of baseball. And don't be fooled. These Indians are not the California Angels of Los Angeles, Orange County, California West Coast USA.

Although the Indians finished with the same record as the Sox, you could argue they had a harder road to earn it. They play in the AL Central, arguably a better division than the AL East. The Tigers were the defending AL Champs, the Twins are always tough and the White Sox were only a year removed from a World Championship. Even the Royals played well in the second half. Much better than a division including the Rays, the corpse-like Orioles and the injury ravaged Blue Jays.

The Indians were also victimized by the brain surgeon schedule makers who had them with a four game set against the Mariners in the the first week of April. While Seattle's domed Safeco Field sat empty, the Tribe and the M's were snowed out of four games in Cleveland. They spent the rest of the summer sneaking back and forth on off days to make up the games. The Indians eventually had to play one of their "home" games in Seattle.

So make no mistake. Eric Wedge's crew will prove to be a handful for the Sox.

Also remember that this series will ultimately decide the World Series winner. While the Four A Expansion Championship takes place in Phoenix and Denver, the two best major league teams will be fighting the cold and each other to determine who will go out west and beat their brains in.

As an aside, for those of you old enough to remember, this set up is reminiscent of the late 60's when the NHL doubled the size of their league. They went from the Original Six team to 12 teams and instead of integrating the new teams with the old, they set up a Western Division made up exclusively of expansion teams. That guaranteed that at least one of these newbies would play in the Stanley Cup finals and have the honor of getting swept by one of the Original Six every season. The Bruins took full advantage in 1970 by sweeping the St. Louis Blues 4-0. (See Orr,Bobby, Flying Through Air).

But I digress. Back to Cleveland /Boston.

The Sox and Indians have met four times in the post season. The first time was in 1948 when the two clubs tied for first place - both winning 96 games ironically - and had to play a one game playoff. Sox skipper Joe McCarthy sent out journeyman Denny Galehouse to pitch the key game. As with all things Red Sox, there was controversy surrounding the decision. Many felt Mel Parnell, who was 15-8 on the year, should have been given the ball even though he would have been pitching on three days rest. To put it in modern terms, this would be like starting Julian Tavarez instead of Josh Beckett on three days rest with the pennant on the line.

The results were predictable. Galehouse turned in a Wang-like performance, failing to get out of the fourth inning as the Sox were smoked 8-3 and the Indians captured the AL flag.

It would be 47 years before they met again in the 1995 ALDS. Kevin Kennedy's Sox might as well have stayed home. They lost the first game 5-4 in 13 innings at the Jake when former Sox Tony Pena hit a home run on a 3-0 pitch. The Indians blanked them 4-0 in Game two and polished them off in Fenway in Game 3 by a score of 8-2. The series was most known for the futility of Mo Vaughn and Jose Canseco, that year's version of Manny and Papi. The pair combined to go 0-27 in the series.

In 1998, they met again in the ALDS and the results weren't much better. The Tribe took the series 3-1. The Sox started off much better as Vaughn tried to make up for 95 by blasting a pair of homers while Nomar added one and Pedro held down Manny Ramirez and the rest of the Indian lineup in an 11-3 win. That would be it for the Sox as the Indians swept the final three games, 9-5, 4-3 and 2-1, the last two at Fenway.

The two teams staged a rematch a year later and the Sox finally broke through. It looked like more of the same for Jimy Williams' Sox when the Indians swept the first two games at the Jake 3-2 and 11-1. But returning to Fenway, the Sox exploded for 9-3 and 23-7 wins in Games 3 & 4 setting up a dramatic Game 5 in Cleveland.

The defining moment in that game and the series was the dramatic appearance of Pedro Martinez in relief. Suffering a back strain, Pedro was not expected to play. But after three innings the wild game was tied 8-8 and Petey came in on his white horse in the bottom of the fourth. He proceeded to pitch six innings of no hit ball allowing only four walks (one to Manny) and shutting down the powerful Indian lineup. Troy O'Leary blasted a three run homer in the seventh to give the Sox the lead and they added another in the ninth. Pedro closed out the 12-8 win by striking out Omar Vizquel for the final out. The Sox would go on to lose the ALCS 4-1 to the Yanks.

There are plenty of subplots in this series with ties between the team. The Indians have Eric Wedge, Trot Nixon and Kelly Shoppach as former Sox. The Sox have former Tribesmen Manny, Coco and Julian Tavarez. John Farrell is a former Indian as is Terry Francona who played in Cleveland in 1988. And the senior Francona, the original Tito, played for the Indians from 1959-1964.

So enough of the preliminaries. It's prediction time.

For those of you keeping track at home, I was 3 out of 4 in the Division Series. The only one I missed was the red hot Rockies over the Phils.

Arizona over Colorado in 6.
Everyone loves the Rockies, who have become the trendy pick. I still think they will hit the wall at some point and I believe this is it. Besides I still have my heart set on a trip to Arizona for the World Series.

Sox over Indians in 7
This should be a great series. My feeling is that Beckett/Schilling and Sabbathia/Carmona will cancel each other out and it will be Matsusaka/Wakefield and Westbrook/Byrd that decides this one. I like the Sox in that matchup. Plus Papelbon over Borowski is a HUGE advantage for the Sox in a short series. The Indians probably have the edge in middle relief, but the OBP Sox have to work the starters and get Betancourt and Perez into games early and often. This one should go down to the wire, but ultimately, I believe the Sox are headed for another World Series.

Friday can't come soon enough.

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Built to win.

I know we've only seen these Sox in two playoff games this year, but it is already crystal clear that the team was constructed exclusively to succeed in the postseason crapshoot.

In Game One, we had Josh Beckett shut down the AL West champs for his sixth career complete game. In Game Two, we had our rookie hurler run into a bit of trouble, then get picked up by flawless pitching performances from the bullpen and the big bats. And today, the Sox have their opponents on the brink of elimination with one of the best big-game pitchers in the history of the game on the hill.

Not a bad little team, all things considered.

The team surely had its holes throughout the course of the year, but now that the postseason tournament has begun those holes have become much less prominent. Terry Francona's gentle handling of Jonathan Papelbon and Dustin Pedroia is paying dividends as they are both healthy and rested during this late juncture of the season. And remember that month Manny took off while the Sox were tying up the East? I don't know about you, but after that majestic homer on Friday night, I'm fairly pleased that he waited until he was 100% before returning to the lineup.

Just compare that to our neighbors to the south, who haven't had any production from their offense in the first two games of their series and found themselves calling on Luis Vizcaino in the tenth inning of a crucial playoff game because they'd already used Justin Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera in the game.

(For the record, I will not be referring to Justin Chamberlain as "Joba" because that's not his real name. He changed it to "Joba" because his little cousin called him that and everyone thought it was cute. I think its stupid, and I will only begin participating in the Yankees' Star Wars fantasy universe when they agree to refer to our rookie outfielder as "Obi Wan" Jacoby Ellsbury.)

So hopefully our boys with the bats can keep working those pitch counts and our pitchers can keep the aggressive Angels bats missing. Let's hope the Sox can put the finishing touches on the divisional series this weekend and prepare to host the Indians at Fenway on Friday.

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We're 9% There

Judging from the reaction to last night's impressive victory by the inane "fans" on the street and the gushing prattle of the bobble heads on the local news anchor desk, you would have expected to pick up the morning paper and read the following headline: "SOX WIN WORLD SERIES IN ONE GAME!"


Calm down people. It was the perfect way to start the postseason, but it was what it was: just one game.

But what a game it was. Josh Beckett calmly took the mantle of Sox Ace from Pedro Martinez, who took it from Roger Clemens, draped in over his broad, gunslinger shoulders and went out and humiliated the Los Angeles Angels. It was no contest. The feeble Halos were cooked and they knew it. It was 4-0, but it felt like 40-0. Come on, at ANY point following Youk's homer did you feel like this game was in jeopardy? Me neither.

In reality, though, it was a must win for the Sox and to their credit they won it. If they had ever come out last night in front of a roaring home crowd (although you couldn't here it on TBS since they were apparently using soup cans for microphones) with their ace going against a pitcher in John Lackey that they absolutely own in Fenway and lost, it would have been a monumental disaster. They did what they had to do.

Beckett's brilliance hid some disturbing signs, however. The Sox offense punched out after the third inning letting Lackey off the hook after having him on the ropes. It would have been nice to knock him out of the game and gotten into the bullpen by the fifth inning but they took their foot off the accelerator. The bottom of the order reverted to FeebleTown as Crisp, Drew and Tek all grounded into double plays killing potential big innings.

Crisp, although he made a run saving catch early, was particularly inept at the plate going 0-3 and seeing a total of SIX pitches. The popgun offense is sufficient when your Ace is twirling a four hit, complete game shutout, but that is not going to happen very often.

Which brings us to Friday night. The Sox have started off on the right foot, but as someone once said, momentum in baseball is only as good as the next day's starter. And Josh Beckett will not be walking through that door again.

No, in Game Two, the ball will be in the hands of the enigmatic Dice K Matsusaka, the human box of crackerjacks. When we open him up Friday night, will we get popcorn, peanuts and a prize or a bad case of indigestion?

Remember, the Angels only need one game here and the frightening thought is that we are one 30 pitch, three walk, 4 run classic Dice K meltdown inning away from going to LA 1-1, giving up the homefield advantage and putting this series in real jeopardy.

But we know that the Dice man loves the big stage. Had you heard that he won the big high school tournament in Japan? So that being the case, I suggest that anyone going to the game Friday night wear their letter jackets and bring their pom poms to get Dice K into the mood.

Of course this is not the Yankees he will be facing. Thankfully, the Angels, with the exception of Reggie Willits, have all graduated from The Manny Sanguillen School of Hitting. For you youngins out there, Sanguillen was a Pirate catcher in the 70's who makes Vlad Guerrero look like Kevin Youkilis in terms of plate discipline. These Halos come out swinging from the on deck circle, so hopefully that will keep Dice K from his normal wild streak. We can only hope.

One down, ten to go..

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The endgame begins.

With the playoffs starting tonight, let's lay out a few predictions...

1. Patience will rule the day. The Sox have done a great job working counts all season long, and the grandest stage of them all is the best place to show off the war of attrition our batsmen wage on opposing pitching staffs. For the Sox to succeed, they need to get into the opposing bullpen early and often in every series.
2. The Dice-Man will cometh. Daisuke Matsuzaka has made his bones playing in big games since he was 17 years old. He has been waiting for the next month of his career since he was a little boy, and don't be suprised when he takes his game to a place we haven't seen before.
3. Tim Wakefield will benevolently step out of the spotlight. Wakefield was scratched from the ALDS roster owing to his bad back and in the hopes that he'll be ready to go for the ALCS. Would anyone be really suprised if this is a face-saving move? Wake has been ineffective since the injury, and he is in no condition to contribute - the only times we'll see him before next spring will be during long shots down the bench.
4. The benches will clear when the Sox play the Yanks. The showdown is coming once again, whether we like it or not. And when it comes, these teams are going to be ready for both a literal and a metaphorical fight. Look for Pedroia to be the guy to get hit to start the melee around game 5 in Yankee Stadium.
5. Gagne will make a bold resurgence when we least expect it. Sure, he's looked like garbage many of the times he's taken the hill this season. But let's not forget this guy won the Cy Young as a closer just four years ago - he knows how to pitch, and he knows how to do it when it counts. The pressure will be off him here, as Francona will use four guys before him (Paps, Okajima, Delcarmen, and Timlin) in pressure situations. At some point, his number will be called in a tie game in the 13th inning, and we'll see the resurgence of that Cy Young winner. He'll give us back the games he cost us during the regular season before Halloween.
6. Okajima will hurt our feelings. Let's not lose ourselves here, these are still our parents' Red Sox and they will hurt us at some point. Its just a fact of this relationship, and we shouldn't be suprised when it happens. My guess is the dead-armed Okajima will contribute to some chest pains in the Greater Boston area; he pitched way over his head for six months to get us here, but it looks like now the tank is on empty.
7. Schill will be playing for his legacy. I think one of the main reasons Schilling wants to come back for one more year is because he sees just how close he is to being a Hall of Famer, if he isn't there already. One more year will put him over 225 wins and 3200 Ks, and if he is really committed to becoming a painter like Greg Maddux or Tom Glavine and ends up moving to the National League, its not unrealistic to envision him pitching another two or three years. In any case, another magical October for the Big Schill would be another huge step towards Cooperstown, and don't think Curt won't be thinking about that every time Tito hands him the ball.
8. The World Series will be much more interesting than we'd expect. Its no secret that the National League sucks - just look at Joel Pineiro shutting down the desperate Mets for eight innings last week. With a championship on the line, however, don't expect the NL representative to lay down and die. The Cardinals of 2007 are much more representative of NL pluck than the Cards of 2004.
9. J.D. Drew will erase his season from the history books with one swing of the bat. Those of us that watched him this season won't forget his subpar campaign, but when we look back on 2007 in twenty years we'll only have one memory of J.D., and it will come during the playoffs. For example, how many people today care about Dave Henderson's 110 strikeouts in 388 at-bats in 1986?
10. Series predictions: Sox in 3, Sox in 7, Sox in 6.

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Finally...The Postseason!

After the long, stressful regular season, which drags on like a Bobby Abreu at bat, the postseason is finally here. The slate is clean. Everyone starts even and the possibilities are endless for each team.

So without further adieu, here are ten reasons why I love the postseason and my first round predictions

Things I love about the postseason:

1. Bunting draped around the ballpark and creeping shadows in the infield late in weekend day games.

2. No more drama regarding how many games up we are and if we can hold on and if the Yankees will catch us and what the Magic Number is.

3. Now every game REALLY means something, as opposed to our overreacting and obsessing over every one of the 162 regular season games.

4. Now Tito will manage every game as if it is life and death, which it is, just like we want him to manage EVERY game all year. No more resting Pedroia. No more Hinske, Kielty or Mirabelli. No more maddening lineup gyrations to help "get us where we need to be." We're already there. Just win baby.

5. Manny will actually play!

6. Now that we are in the postseason, we finally get to see ARod cool off.

7. No more Joe Morgan on ESPN to explain that a curve ball curves and a fast ball goes fast and a change up doesn't. "Now look at this. See right there." No more Joe Buck and Tim McCarver. (at least until the World Series, and if we make it that far, we can always turn down the sound.)

8. Later start times. (except for tomorrow night). Now I can actually watch the first inning instead of listening to it in the car on the way home from work. Of course the downside is a serious case of sleep deprivation when the OBP driven Sox stretch these playoff games to four hours and post midnight endings.

9. No more incessant babbling about the absurdly annoying gimmicks like President of Red Sox Nation, Wally the Green Monster and the shameless Huckster Remdawg pushing something off his web site every minute while we're trying to watch the game.

10. We are in the hunt for another World Series Championship!


And now, for the first round predictions.

Red Sox over the Angels. You always have to beware of a wounded animal (spirit?) and the Halos certainly are dinged up. Everyone always praises the Angels because the play "National League Ball". The problem is THEY'RE IN THE AMERICAN LEAGUE! The key to beating them is to get ahead so they can bunt and steal themselves into submission while trailing by four runs. The Sox have had their number since 1986 (Thank you Hendu) and I see no reason for it to end now. Sox in four.

Indians over the Yankees. Maybe this is wishful thinking but the Yanks are not built for the post season. Matsui is going to have to DH so popgun arm Traitor Damon will have to play left and that puts Jason "Steroid Boy" Giambi at first or on the bench. That is a frightful defense. Plus in games one and two, the Indians have a distinct edge playing at home with Sabbathia and Carmona going. The Bombers have never faced C. C. this season and they saw Carmona only once. (beating him 6-1). Plus Steve Philips of ESPN made a great point about the two Indian aces. He said neither of them have to expand the strike zone to get hitters out. He said their stuff is so good, they can be over the plate and still get people out. So the Yankees ploy of working the count and building up pitch counts may be negated because Sabbathia and Carmona can go right after them. So if they come out of Cleveland down 2-0, they face the prospect of running out a shaky Mike Mussina or banged up Texas Conman Roger Clemens in game three. If they manage to win that one, they then will have to beat Sabbathia and Carmona to win the series. I think there is a real chance the Yankees could get beaten here, especially if AROD lays an ABOMB in the postseason again. Tribe in five.

Phillies over the Rockies. Two white hot teams colliding in what should be an outstanding series. The problem is that both of these teams have been pushing for the past two weeks just to make it here by the skin of their teeth and one of them is likely to hit the wall in this series. The betting here is that it is the Rockies who finally flame out. They had to play an extra game, and a 13 inning one at that, and used 27 pitchers to win it. Then they had to turn around and fly across the country and go into battle again. I think it's too much to ask. Phillies in four.

Diamondbacks over the Cubs. The sentimental pick is the Cubs. They have the bigger names but not necessarily the better team. Plus they will be trotting out the contrived Curse of the Billy Goat again (now I understand how annoying the Curse of the Bambino must be to out of town fans). The Dbacks have a great manager in Bob Melvin and some dynamic young stars and some flamethrowing arms beginning with Brandon Webb. And from a personal standpoint, my brother said he might be able to get us tickets to the World Series if the Sox make it against the Dbacks, so I am rooting for Arizona all the way. Diamondbacks in five.

There you have it. Let the games begin.

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