Taking Stock

With Opening Day only two weeks away, I thought it would be a good time to take a look at the state of the Sox as they stand today. And with all the interest in the volatile Stock Market the past two weeks, I decided I would evaluate the club using some familiar Wall Street terminology.

Let's ring the opening bell and take stock of each member of the likely Sox opening day roster and whether they are hot buys, dogs or somewhere in between after four weeks of Spring Training.

Blue Chips: David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Curt Schilling, Kevin Youkilis, J. D. Drew.
As far as Ortiz and Ramirez are concerned, we will not be swayed by the past month's spring performances (hitting .176 and .231 respectively). Regardless, these two are the heart of the Sox order and will put up the numbers once the season begins. Schilling has allowed only two runs and sports a 1.93 ERA as he begins his "contract run." Youk is red hot, hitting .387 with a .500 OBP as is Drew who is hitting .409 (Teddy Ballgame anyone?) with a .727 slugging percentage. You can feel comfortable putting your grandmother's retirement nest egg into these "sure things".

Emerging Growth: Jonathan Paplebon, Daisuke Matsusaka, J. C. Romero, Javier Lopez, Hideo Okajima, Kyle Snyder. If Pap were in his correct role (True Closer Pap held hostage Day 28) he would be at the top of the Blue Chip list. But with the organization's stubborn resolve to not utilize one of their better weapons, Pap is still a work in progress as a starter. That said, he sports a 2.08 ERA and will be effective for the first month or so he is in the rotation before returning to his proper spot at the back of the bullpen. Dice-K has shown flashes of what he can do and there is no reason to believe he won't turn into the solid starter we all expect. Meanwhile, the Left Trio of Romero (1.35 ERA in six games), Lopez (1.17 in six games) and Okajima (2.35 in six games) continues to be lights out. This will certainly come in handy against the Yankmees as opposed to last year when the Sox cleverly went into the biggest series of the season last August against the heavily lefty laden Bomber lineup WITHOUT A FREAKING LEFTY RELIEVER. That plan worked well, eh? Snyder continues to intrigue with a 2.45 ERA in three games. As has been well chronicled, the former first pick of the Royals is out of minor league options so he either has to make the club or the Sox will lose him. The most likely scenario would be a trade for a reliever. Hmmm, can he close? These all represent good buys with great upside.

Undervalued: Josh Beckett, Alex Cora, Eric Hinske. In the amazing world of diminished expectations, Beckett continues to fly under the radar. Lest we forget, he was traded for the rookie of the year and potential future MVP candidate in the NL so we really need more value than a 5.01 ERA. That said, Beckett seems to have learned his lesson and has been using his off speed pitches more and sports a 3.09 ERA in nine innings. He might emerge this year as the stud the Sox traded for. Supersub Cora is hitting .313 and continues to be great insurance if the it turns out the Sox have overreached on Dustin Pedroia's readiness. Let's not forget that Cora was a starting shortstop at Cleveland before he came to Boston. Hinske doesn't get many headlines but can be a crucial piece of the puzzle this year. He can play first, third and the outfield and is hitting .292 this spring. All three represent good value with a strong "buy" recommendation.

High Risk: Manny Delcarmen, Brendan Donnelly, Julian Tavarez, Tim Wakefield, Craig Hansen, Mike Lowell.
Delcarmen (6.75 ERA), Donnelly (6.75) and Tavarez (4.66) are three of the Gong Show participants in the farsical "Let's-find-a-closer-no-wait-we-have-one-of-the-best-but-we- can't- use - him" competition. None has inspired much confidence. MDC is dangerously close to spending his career as a borderline reliever on the Pawtucket to Boston shuttle. Donnelly talks tough but has coughed up nine hits and five runs in 6 2/3 innings. Tavarez is whacky enough to close, but he has given up eight runs and seven hits in 9 2/3 innings. Not exactly what you want to see coming in for the ninth inning with a one run lead. Wakefield probably belongs in the Blue Chip category but he has yet to show he has recovered from his injuries of last year. He's allowed 15 hits and 6 runs in 9 innings so the jury is still out on Wake. Hopefully Hansen was just a victim of the "Cla Meredith Rush to the Majors" Disease and he can turn into the closer the Sox envisioned. Still touch and go at this point. Lowell was outstanding last year but will he revert to the mandatory throw in that he was in last year's Beckett trade? He is still sparkling defensively, but like most of the Sox lineup this spring, he is not hitting, sporting a .212 average. Buy into these "stocks" at your own peril.

Overvalued: Julio Lugo, Dustin Pedroia, Jason Varitek, Joel Piniero, Wily Mo Pena. At around $25 million, this group costs about $10 more than the Marlins spent on their ENTIRE roster last season. The Sox have been in a lather to get Lugo for years and now they have him. Be careful what you wish for. He is definitely an upgrade from Crisp in the leadoff spot but he is only hitting .243 with a .300 OBP. Defensively, he is SEVERAL grades below Alex Gonzalez and he has been particluarly Manny-like on the basepaths. He will probably work out but not worth $9 million. After being burned by letting David Eckstein go, the Sox are bound and determined that Pedroia will represent the same type of player. The problem is he hasn't done it at the major league level (see: final month of 2006). He is currently hitting .219 and is being given some time off by Tito. Tek is the best game caller in baseball and still strong defensively, but has become pathetic offensively. Despite what Scott Boras promised prior to Tek signing the four year $40 mil contract three years ago, catchers do wear down after age 35. Tek has two hits all spring and is batting .105. Looks like we are g0ing to have to settle for a great emotional and intellectual leader with solid defense that will also represent a gaping black hole at the bottom of the lineup. Piniero was a joke signing from the start. As someone pointed out on the Mike Felger show last week, if you're going to throw away $4 million on a washout like Piniero, why wouldn't you just take a $6 million flyer on a proven commodity (obviously health permitting) like Eric Gagne. Although he has looked better of late, Piniero is simply an overpaid journeyman who is destined for long/middle relief. Pena is another case of Theo falling in love with a player despite all reason. (See: Renteria, Edgar). Every day they don't trade him his value continues to go down. He will hit monstrous home runs but will strike out twice a game. Through Sunday, Wily Mo has 7 hits, no HR and 9 K's in 28 AB's. He can't hit an offspeed pitch. If you can get Cordero for him, Theo should do the deal yesterday. You can't invest anything else in this group.

Junk Bonds: Coco Crisp, Doug Mirabelli. Last year Crisp was crippled by the finger injury. He showed some flashes last spring and the first week of the season before being hurt. But this spring he has been anemic as well. He has five hits so far this spring with a .179. The Sox threw in the towel, along with $9 million on Lugo, on the Crisp-as-leadoff -man experiment. Coco can run down a lot of balls in the alleys, but he better catch them on the fly since his arm is positively Damon-like. Hopefully he can help what might be a pathetic bottom third of the order for at least a year until Jacoby Ellsbury is ready. Mirabelli better have a picture of Wakefield on his bedstand, since he is a blocked knuckler away from being out of baseball. The fact that NO ONE in the world except Dougie can catch Wake is a whole other story. Statistical Note: Josh Bard with San Diego 93 games, .338, 9 HR, .406 OBP. Mirabelli 14 games, .193, 6 HR, .261 OBP. And let's not forget Mirabelli also cost us Meredith (1.07 ERA in 50 innings). Wake needs to win 15 for this to be worth it. Sell, Sell, Sell and cut your losses.

Overall, the Sox look like a good buy with a top of the line starting rotation. They are not hitting, but they will. The only big hole is at the end of games, and once Pap is back there, this team should be poised for a strong run.