Since this will be my last post before THE SEASON FINALLY STARTS I thought it would be a good time to review my Spring Training Predictions made back on February 10.
1. Jon Lester will break camp and head north with the big club as the fifth starter.
Out. I thought I would at least get half credit on this one. With the injury to Mike Timlin and Craig Hansen doing his best Calvin Schiraldi impression, Lester could easily have claimed a spot on the 25 man roster. Beyond that, with his strong spring training start the courageous lefthander could easily have grabbed the fifth man in the rotation once the Sox came to their senses and put Pap back into the bullpen. However, Lester struggled trying to pitch with both hands tied behind his back and wrapped in antiseptic gauze. The Sox couldn't have handled him more gingerly if they put in him glass bubble all spring. Now he will start the season in Class A Greenville where he will wallow for the month of April. He should be ready to come back and rescue Tavarez by early May.
2. Jonathan Papelbon will start the season as the the closer.
Hit. In a miracle of Biblical Proportions, Jonathan Papelbon's shoulder healed itself and now instead of having to be on a structured five day schedule, he can resume his role as All Star Closer. Rubbish. Thank God the farce has ended and the Sox will not waste the first few months of the season torching what will hopefully be some solid efforts from Schilling, Beckett and Matsusaka.
3. J. D. Drew will miss at least several days of workouts due to a minor injury.
Out. Drew turned out to be the feel good story of camp playing regularly and hitting really well. (I would give you his Spring Training batting average but I've been schooled that this doesn't mean anything. Let's just say a lot of the times Drew hit the ball it was fair and the other team didn't catch it.) However I came close to counting this one after this note from the March 18 Boston Globe. "Francona is giving... J.D. Drew some down time...he doesn't want Drew making the bus ride to Fort Lauderdale today 'because he's swinging so well. He feels so good about himself."" Huh?
4. Manny will be late arriving to camp.
Hit. This one was a soft toss. By announcing he would be arriving on March 1, and then showing up on February 27, a week after position players were due to report, Manny accomplished the metaphysical impossible - he was late and early at the same time. Only Manny.
5. Schilling will be signed to an extension.
Out. Theo didn't bite on this one and instead is going to make The Big Schill play for his next contract. Actually, not a bad idea since he also had really good unable-to-be-named statistics this spring and is poised to have an ace-like season.
6. Devern Hansack will be the talk of camp.
Infield hit. I'm going to invoke literary license and take half credit for this one. This from Jeff Horrigan's column in the Boston Herald on March 25:
"Devern Hansack is giving the Red Sox reason to have second thoughts about leaving him off the Opening Day roster. The 29-year-old right-hander, who was called up from Double-A Portland last September for the final 12 days of the season and will most likely open 2007 with Triple-A Pawtucket, extended his dominant spring yesterday by tossing three perfect innings in a 1-1 tie with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays at Al Lang Field.
Hansack, who has a 2.08 ERA in five spring appearances, retired all nine batters he faced, including three on strikeouts. He threw his fastball, changeup and curveball all for strikes and mixed in an effective slider. (Ed note: please don't pay attention to the above noted statistic.)
The Sox will have one spot open in the bullpen for at least the first nine days of the season while Mike Timlin is on the disabled list, but it is believed that management would prefer to see Hansack go to Pawtucket to start. After watching Hansack yesterday, manager Terry Francona said it was “exciting” to watch him pitch.
“We have to make some decisions coming up shortly, but at some point, this kid’s going to help us,” Francona said.
7. The Twins will win the Mayor's Trophy.
Out. I thought this was a no brainer considering that in the 15 year history of the Battle for Fort Myers, the Sox have captured the cup only four times. But not this year. The Twins went into the fifth and deciding game of the series down 2-1-1 but they would have retained the cup with a win and a 2-2-1 standoff for the spring. Just my luck that this would be the night when Schilling outduels Johan Santana. Staked to a 4-0 lead even Joel Piniero and Javy Lopez couldn't blow this one, although they tried mightly. The Sox held on 5-4 to take home the championship as the crowd went wild. Well, not really. Let's hope Schilling comes up just as big against the Minnesota ace when it really counts. The good news? The last time the Sox won the cup was in 2004 and they went on to have a pretty good season that year.
8. Manny will volunteer to take a long bus ride to play in an exhibition game he could have skipped.
Hit. On March 21, Manny made the 1 hour 32 minute trip from Fort Myers to Bradenton to face the Pirates. From Gordon Edes, Boston Globe March 22, 2007 edition. "Manny Ramirez, who was not listed on the original travelling squad, reached base in all three plate appearances, with an RBI single in the first and two walks. 'He said he was bored and wanted to play,' Francona said. Ramirez plans to play today in Clearwater." That's a trip of 2 hours 16 minutes, 130 miles. Note: He changed his mind and did not go on that one, but I only predicted one extra trip.
9. David Murphy will be mentioned in more than one trade rumor.
Hit. Posted March 15 on MLBTradeRumors.com: "The Marlins may have their eye on a couple of Red Sox: center fielder David Murphy and pitcher Kyle Snyder. Murphy still has a chance to become a credible CF, especially if his adds a little power. Houston also likes Murphy. "
And from the March 18 Boston Globe. "The Astros need an outfielder who can play defense, but while Sox prospect David Murphy's name has been mentioned by Astro officials, it might not be enough to get either (Chad) Qualls or (Dan) Wheeler."
10. Daisuke will get hammered in an early exhibition game and a Boston writer will question the signing (my guess would be Silverman or Shaughnessy).
Out. This one nearly fell in twice. After being hammered for homers by two non roster Orioles on March 11, Karen Guregian said in her column "At times yesterday, Daisuke Matsusaka was the guy worth every penny of the $102 million ransom the Red Sox spent to bring him here...In his last two innings, it was just the opposite. Matsuzaka was hittable. No, make that crushable." Unfortunately, she came up short of actually questioning the signing. Silverman and Shaugnhessy appeared on Sports Seven on the night of the outing and both reaffirmed their faith that Dice K will be just fine. Shocking.
But the CHB almost came through for me following Dice K's last start when he threw a five inning no hitter but walked five. This from the Shank's column the following day:
"Daisuke Matsuzaka pitched five innings of no-hit baseball in a 5-0 spring training loss to the Cincinnati Reds yesterday, but that's not the story. The story is that Dice-K walked five batters and demonstrated poor command of his fastball....The result of all this will be a five-day frenzy of Dice-K speculation on two continents. Is he hurt? Is he frustrated? Is he a diva? Is he physically and mentally prepared for his first big league start next Friday in Kansas City?"
Close, but even I can't take credit for either of those. Dice K mania was so strong it even overcame the Overwhelming Cynicism of our local scribes.
So overall I hit 4.5 out of 10. Not bad. Even a statistics-challenged old foggy like me knows that's a .450 average, higher that Teddy Ballgame and puts me in the Hall of Fame. Wonder what my VORP would be?
Opening Day is three days away. Thank God.
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