Keep On Comin' Yanks - Please Make It Close

Seeing how emotional I am regarding the Red Sox, you would think that the fact that in the last month, the Yankees have played .733 ball versus the Sox .555 and have chopped 4.5 games off what once was a double digit lead for the Sox in the AL East lead would be causing me to go mental. Yes, I realize the Bombers have fattened up on a ridiculously cupcake schedule and have made their run largely by going 16-6 against the Devil Rays, Royals, White Sox and Blue Jays. The fact remains, we can see them clearly in our rear view mirror and they are certainly larger than they appear.

However, I am strangely calm. I actually am happy that the Yankees are coming on like a freight train. In fact, I believe that tightening the race further is actually a good thing. As a matter of fact, before this is over, I hope the race comes down to the final week.

Have I lost my mind? Not at all. I've just checked out the numbers. (Which Kevin from New York keeps telling me is the proper way to analyze baseball.)

The ultimate goal here is a World Championship, correct? An AL East title would be nice, and we certainly want that first round Fenway Park advantage, but what we really want is another Duck Boat Parade and a cruise through the 365 Bay State cities and towns with a matching World Series Trophy.

That being the case, we all should be rooting for a death-defying, dog-eat-dog, right to the wire battle for the AL East crown with the hated Yankees.

I've checked out the margins of victory in division races since 2000 and identifed the team in each league that ended the season with the largest division race margins. (There are fifteen teams for the seven seasons since there was one tie). The numbers are irrefutable. The larger the margin of victory in the division, the less the chances of taking home a World Series title.

Of those 15 teams, six lost in the first round League Division Series (LDS). Six lost in the League Championship Series (LCS). Only three made it to the World Series and only one captured the championship. And that one posted the SLIMMEST margin of victory in their division race of all 15 teams.

There is also a correlation between the size of a Division Race victory and how early the teams have exited the playoffs. Of the 15 teams, the average margin of victory for those teams that lost the LDS, the FIRST ROUND, was 11.5 games. The number for losing the LCS was 10 games. Those teams that made the World Series had division margins of 9.5 games. And as mentioned, the team that had the tightest division race of the 15, the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks, won the division by only two games and went on to take it all.

Let's look as some of the first round flops.

The two teams with the largest division margins of victory, Atlanta in 2002 who won the NL East by 19 Games and the 2003 Giants, who won the NL West by 15.5 games, both lost in the opening round of the playoffs. The Braves lost 3-2 but the Giants managed only one win in losing 3 games to one.

Other first round losers included the 2006 Yankees (won AL East by 10 games, lost 3-1 in first round), 2004 Minnesota (won AL Central by 9 games, lost ALDS 3-1), 2000 SF (won NL West by 11 games, lost NLDS 3-1) and 2000 Chicago White Sox (Won AL Central by 5 games, lost ALDS 3-0).

So to recap. 40% of the teams that ended up with their league's largest division race victories, went down in the first round. And only one of them managed to win MORE THAN ONE GAME in the series.

Some great regular season teams also never made it past the LCS. In 2001, Seattle won 116 games and their division by 14, but managed only one victory in the ALCS, bowing out 4-1. The 2002 Twins won 94 games but captured the dreadful division by 13.5, but lost in the ALCS 4-1. The 2006 Mets won 97 games and their division by seven, but came up short 4-3 in the NLCS. The 2005 Angels (95 wins, won division by seven), 2005 Cardinals (100 wins, won division by 11), Atlanta (won 92 games and division by 2) also all dropped out by losing the LCS.

The 2004 Cardinals won 105 games and their division by 13, but I think we all remember what happened once they made it to the World Series . Can you say broomed?

The 2003 Grady Little-propelled New York Yankees won 101 games, took the AL East by 6 and lucked into the World Series before suffering their just fate at the hands of Josh Beckett and the Marlins in a seven game series loss.

So the message is clear. We don't want a division race runaway. We don't want a leisurely romp to the division championship. History shows us that this is a road to ruin. No matter what a manager might do, that type of victory clearly dulls the edge of the best of teams.

What we need is for the Yankees to scare the absolute bejesus out of the Sox and its fans. Make them keep their edge. Understand that it is life and death every night. Make us chew our fingernails to the knuckles. Keep looking over our shoulders for the lurking Bombers. Just like this weekend. Before every game against a solid Seattle team, the Sox went in knowing the Yanks had again bludgeoned the hapless Royals and they needed a win to maintain their lead. That is excellent pressure for them. It will keep them sharp. The result? The Sox took two out of three from a Mariner team that has dominated them. That type of perfomance, and pressure from the Yankees, will steel us for the playoffs.

A former professor of mine once said that the only tension-free environment is six feet under. Tension and stress are good. It will keep the Sox playing hard and get them ready for the post season cauldron.

It may not be the best thing for the collective nerves of Red Sox Nation, but it will prove to be the best medicine for a successful post season for the Sox. So come on Yankees (gulp), keep it up.