Sox Must Deal With Lester Problem

During Spring Training, when the "Jonathan Papelbon as starter" charade was still being played out, I strongly urged that Paps be returned to the back end of the bullpen where he belongs and that Jon Lester, who looked strong despite being only months removed from his recovery from cancer, should be inserted into the fifth spot in the rotation. Kevin in New York, quite correctly, argued that this was folly and argued that Lester was nowhere near ready for that. The Sox brass held that same view and the young lefthander was sent to the minors to work his way back to the big club.

With the disintegration of Julian Tavarez-as-starter, Lester was brought up last month to compete with Kasson Gabbard for the final spot in the rotation. With the trade of Gabbard, Lester now owns that final number five spot. There is only one problem.

Lester is still not ready.

There is no questioning Lester's courage in coming back from the lymphona that attacked him last year. He has worked hard to get another shot in the majors. Unfortunately, the results have not been there. Even though the lefthander is 1-0, he sports a 6.43 ERA and is heading in the wrong direction.

He can't get ahead of hitters and as evidenced in his start at Anaheim, he has become eminently hittable. He is fooling no one. His inability to throw strikes has resulted in some ungodly pitches per innings averages. In his first start, he averaged 16 pitches per inning. It stayed about the same in his second outing at 15.6. It went to 19.8 pitches per inning against Seattle and soared to 30 pitches per inning against the Angels. Overall, in four starts he is averaging 18.5 pitches per inning.

You might say that he is not yet in shape and should improve. Again, there is no evidence that this is the case. Last season, he displayed the same frustrating tendency to throw too many pitches. In June of last year he averaged 19.8 PPI. He reduced it to 16.5 in July but zoomed back up to 21 PPI in August before he was shut down after his illness was diagnosed. His 2006 average? 18.6 pitches per inning.

Sound familiar?

This could be a case of a young pitcher learning to pitch compounded by a serious illness. If so, he will improve and could be a solid major league starter. If not, it could also simply be a case of a pitcher who will always be what he is. Not ready for prime time. A Brian Rose or Jeff Sellers or Tony Armas Jr. Guys who projected to be major league players, but who just never made it. What Bill Parcells used to call a J.A.G. - Just Another Guy. That happens.

What is clear is that a decision must soon be made about the number five slot. Tito cannot ccontinue to run out a five inning pitcher every fifth day and risk burning out the bullpen. He may have to look to someone else to jump into the rotation. But what do the Sox do now as they prepare for the stretch drive in a pennant race? Sadly, they don't have many options.

If they want to stay at the major league level, they can flip Lester with Kyle Snyder. Snyder has major league experience as a starter. He currently sports a 2.91 ERA and has given up only two runs in his last appearances. He has been solid and might work in the number five spot. Lester could then go into the long relief role and perhaps find a groove. They could go back to Julian Tavarez but I think we've seen enough of that movie.

If the Sox elect to dip into the minors, the pickings aren't very robust. David Pauley and Devern Hansack both have major league experience, but have been unimpressive recently pitching for the Pawsox. Pauley is 0-2 in his last four starts, giving up 28 hits and 10 runs in 23 innings pitched for an ERA of 3.91. Hansack has been worse. In his last four starts, Hansack is 2-1 allowing 22 hits and 11 runs in 22 innings pitched for a 4.50 ERA.

Big righthander Mike Burns has been better. The 6' 1" 210 pounder is 1-0 in his last three starts allowing only11 hits and 3 runs in 20.2 innings for an ERA of 1.34.

But the most impressive starter at Pawtucker recently has been the phenom, Clay Bucholtz. In his last three starts, all no decisions, Bucholtz has allowed only 12 hits and 5 earned runs for a 2.60 ERA with 25 strikeouts and 4 walks.. In his last two starts he has pitched 13.1 innings and struck out 18 while walking NONE. ZERO.

It would be quite a risk for the Sox to bring up a young pitcher who started the year at Double A and throw him into the middle of a pennant race, but they did it with Papelbon two years ago and Lester last year. Desperate times call for desperate measures. Now is the time.

Bring on Bucholtz.