How'd I Do? Revisiting My Spring Training Predictions

Since this will be my last post before THE SEASON FINALLY STARTS I thought it would be a good time to review my Spring Training Predictions made back on February 10.

1. Jon Lester will break camp and head north with the big club as the fifth starter.
Out. I thought I would at least get half credit on this one. With the injury to Mike Timlin and Craig Hansen doing his best Calvin Schiraldi impression, Lester could easily have claimed a spot on the 25 man roster. Beyond that, with his strong spring training start the courageous lefthander could easily have grabbed the fifth man in the rotation once the Sox came to their senses and put Pap back into the bullpen. However, Lester struggled trying to pitch with both hands tied behind his back and wrapped in antiseptic gauze. The Sox couldn't have handled him more gingerly if they put in him glass bubble all spring. Now he will start the season in Class A Greenville where he will wallow for the month of April. He should be ready to come back and rescue Tavarez by early May.

2. Jonathan Papelbon will start the season as the the closer.
Hit. In a miracle of Biblical Proportions, Jonathan Papelbon's shoulder healed itself and now instead of having to be on a structured five day schedule, he can resume his role as All Star Closer. Rubbish. Thank God the farce has ended and the Sox will not waste the first few months of the season torching what will hopefully be some solid efforts from Schilling, Beckett and Matsusaka.

3. J. D. Drew will miss at least several days of workouts due to a minor injury.
Out. Drew turned out to be the feel good story of camp playing regularly and hitting really well. (I would give you his Spring Training batting average but I've been schooled that this doesn't mean anything. Let's just say a lot of the times Drew hit the ball it was fair and the other team didn't catch it.) However I came close to counting this one after this note from the March 18 Boston Globe. "Francona is giving... J.D. Drew some down time...he doesn't want Drew making the bus ride to Fort Lauderdale today 'because he's swinging so well. He feels so good about himself."" Huh?

4. Manny will be late arriving to camp.
Hit. This one was a soft toss. By announcing he would be arriving on March 1, and then showing up on February 27, a week after position players were due to report, Manny accomplished the metaphysical impossible - he was late and early at the same time. Only Manny.

5. Schilling will be signed to an extension.
Out. Theo didn't bite on this one and instead is going to make The Big Schill play for his next contract. Actually, not a bad idea since he also had really good unable-to-be-named statistics this spring and is poised to have an ace-like season.

6. Devern Hansack will be the talk of camp.
Infield hit. I'm going to invoke literary license and take half credit for this one. This from Jeff Horrigan's column in the Boston Herald on March 25:

"Devern Hansack is giving the Red Sox reason to have second thoughts about leaving him off the Opening Day roster.

The 29-year-old right-hander, who was called up from Double-A Portland last September for the final 12 days of the season and will most likely open 2007 with Triple-A Pawtucket, extended his dominant spring yesterday by tossing three perfect innings in a 1-1 tie with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays at Al Lang Field.
Hansack, who has a 2.08 ERA in five spring appearances, retired all nine batters he faced, including three on strikeouts. He threw his fastball, changeup and curveball all for strikes and mixed in an effective slider. (Ed note: please don't pay attention to the above noted statistic.)

The Sox will have one spot open in the bullpen for at least the first nine days of the season while Mike Timlin is on the disabled list, but it is believed that management would prefer to see Hansack go to Pawtucket to start. After watching Hansack yesterday, manager Terry Francona said it was “exciting” to watch him pitch.
“We have to make some decisions coming up shortly, but at some point, this kid’s going to help us,” Francona said.

7. The Twins will win the Mayor's Trophy.
Out. I thought this was a no brainer considering that in the 15 year history of the Battle for Fort Myers, the Sox have captured the cup only four times. But not this year. The Twins went into the fifth and deciding game of the series down 2-1-1 but they would have retained the cup with a win and a 2-2-1 standoff for the spring. Just my luck that this would be the night when Schilling outduels Johan Santana. Staked to a 4-0 lead even Joel Piniero and Javy Lopez couldn't blow this one, although they tried mightly. The Sox held on 5-4 to take home the championship as the crowd went wild. Well, not really. Let's hope Schilling comes up just as big against the Minnesota ace when it really counts. The good news? The last time the Sox won the cup was in 2004 and they went on to have a pretty good season that year.

8. Manny will volunteer to take a long bus ride to play in an exhibition game he could have skipped.
Hit. On March 21, Manny made the 1 hour 32 minute trip from Fort Myers to Bradenton to face the Pirates. From Gordon Edes, Boston Globe March 22, 2007 edition. "Manny Ramirez, who was not listed on the original travelling squad, reached base in all three plate appearances, with an RBI single in the first and two walks. 'He said he was bored and wanted to play,' Francona said. Ramirez plans to play today in Clearwater." That's a trip of 2 hours 16 minutes, 130 miles. Note: He changed his mind and did not go on that one, but I only predicted one extra trip.

9. David Murphy will be mentioned in more than one trade rumor.
Hit. Posted March 15 on MLBTradeRumors.com: "The Marlins may have their eye on a couple of Red Sox: center fielder David Murphy and pitcher Kyle Snyder. Murphy still has a chance to become a credible CF, especially if his adds a little power. Houston also likes Murphy. "
And from the March 18 Boston Globe. "The Astros need an outfielder who can play defense, but while Sox prospect David Murphy's name has been mentioned by Astro officials, it might not be enough to get either (Chad) Qualls or (Dan) Wheeler."

10. Daisuke will get hammered in an early exhibition game and a Boston writer will question the signing (my guess would be Silverman or Shaughnessy).
Out. This one nearly fell in twice. After being hammered for homers by two non roster Orioles on March 11, Karen Guregian said in her column "At times yesterday, Daisuke Matsusaka was the guy worth every penny of the $102 million ransom the Red Sox spent to bring him here...In his last two innings, it was just the opposite. Matsuzaka was hittable. No, make that crushable." Unfortunately, she came up short of actually questioning the signing. Silverman and Shaugnhessy appeared on Sports Seven on the night of the outing and both reaffirmed their faith that Dice K will be just fine. Shocking.
But the CHB almost came through for me following Dice K's last start when he threw a five inning no hitter but walked five. This from the Shank's column the following day:

"Daisuke Matsuzaka pitched five innings of no-hit baseball in a 5-0 spring training loss to the Cincinnati Reds yesterday, but that's not the story. The story is that Dice-K walked five batters and demonstrated poor command of his fastball....The result of all this will be a five-day frenzy of Dice-K speculation on two continents. Is he hurt? Is he frustrated? Is he a diva? Is he physically and mentally prepared for his first big league start next Friday in Kansas City?"

Close, but even I can't take credit for either of those. Dice K mania was so strong it even overcame the Overwhelming Cynicism of our local scribes.

So overall I hit 4.5 out of 10. Not bad. Even a statistics-challenged old foggy like me knows that's a .450 average, higher that Teddy Ballgame and puts me in the Hall of Fame. Wonder what my VORP would be?

Opening Day is three days away. Thank God.

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Project A-13

In an interesting effort to combat the relentless scrutiny placed on baseball players in the Northeast, one misguided Yankee fan has put together a website intended to unite all Yankee fans in undying adulation of everyone's favorite quarter-billion dollar man, Alex Rodriguez. And I am quite amused.

At Project A13 (http://www.projecta13.com/index.html), Pinstripe fans who are "tired of expecting him to fail, and standing up to boo when he does so" are encouraged to "forget the contract [and] remember the game" as they support ARod. I sincerely hope this initiative takes off and gets the attention of as many New Yorkers as possible, who will promptly boo this webmaster and probably urinate on his doorstep.

Anyone who has been a part of a truly magical heckling experience, whether as performer or observer, knows logic and reason really aren't mandatory for success; many times, the best hecklers are those who know just enough to be dangerous and are in no condition to remember the rest. Although one has to admire the work that went in to designing this slick site, you know it has no chance when you see the subheading, "The Anti-Boos Movement," and can hear your neighbor across the street booing their computer.

So let's go on this magical journey together and have a taste of what this site has to offer.

Would you have signed the contract?
There are very few things I wouldn't do for $252 million dollars.

Would you have come to New York?
If coming to New York included escaping the smoking pile of rubble left at my former franchise because of my crippling $252 million dollar contract, sure.

Would you stay in New York?
Well, considering my only other option is to retire from baseball and not collect the last $125 million dollars of my contract, probably not. I may contract Scott Proctor disease and miss a couple seasons, though.

As we move further down the page, we search for the root causes of ARods problems (stopping to label him an "American hero" en route, of course), and the author endears himself to Yankee fans by basically blaming Cap'n Intangibles himself, Derek Jeter. Although I kind of agree with that sentiment (at the time, I thought it would have been better for Jeter's career if he moved to center field and allowed Bernie Williams to hit the coffee house tour three years earlier), it is not a popular one among real Yankee fans. The author goes on to continually ask if he or I could handle the pressure ARod faces on a daily basis. Of course we couldn't - that's why we're blogging after midnight on a Wednesday and he's swimming in a giant silo of gold coins like Scrooge McDuck.

In terms of ARod walking away from his contract after this season, I have a revelation for Yankee fans: the only reason he leaves is if Scott Boras thinks he can get a more lucrative contract on the open market. Period. End of story. If you boo, it doesn't matter. He may suck more every day, but he has 100 million more reasons to take his lumps and hit those Miami beaches by the second week of October for the rest of the decade.

Anyways, this guy continues to ramble on for hundreds and hundreds of more words, but I just wanted to throw such an intriguing concept out for public consumption. Could you imagine such a site for a Boston athlete? The only type of fan I could picture creating such a site would be a stereotypical pink-hat fan who bought a player's jersey with the name on the back and now can't wear it at the game without the fat guys in the bleachers throwing beers at him.

(As a complete side note, nothing aggrevates me more than when I see Sox fans wearing replica home jerseys with a last name across the back or a Yankees fan with the name across either jersey. Guys, the names aren't on those jerseys in real life. The only reason you throw a name on there is so other pink hat fans know what jersey you're wearing. And quite frankly, that's disgusting.)

So I will let all of you settled safely in Red Sox Nation know if Project A13 is a success.

My guess, however, is that A13 will ultimately be undone by one too many 6-4-3s and E5s.

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Tom Responds to the 9.5 Theses

It happens to the best of us. The son turning on the father. I should have known I was in trouble from Day Two of his life, when I held tiny Kevin in my arms as he totally ignored me and instead stared with unfocused eyes on that afternoon's Sox game showing on the TV hung high on the hospital room wall. (For the record on 6-11-83 the Sox fell 10-6 to the Orioles to drop to 28-28 for the year. They would go on to finish with a 78-84 record in sixth place - out of seven AL East teams - 28 games back of the pennant winning O's.) But I am proud to see that I helped raise an intelligent, thoughtful Red Sox fan, even if he is off base now and again.

So do I react to the 9.5 Theses as Pope Leo X responded to Martin Luther's 95 Theses? Just ignore them and hope they go away? I think not. I must respond.

On to the particulars.

1. Starters are more valuable than Closers.

:)

2. Bunting is generally stupid. No controversy here. The boy has won me over on this one. This is a case where my years of coaching Little League did affect my judgement. I have come to buy into the Moneyball mantra and agree that there are only a few rare occasions when it makes sense to give away an out.

3. What happened in Little League can in no way be compared to Major League baseball. True enough. The parks are a lot bigger and the manager doesn't have to bring oranges and water to the field. However, there are lessons to be learned at every level, even in Little League, that carry over. Obviously not in terms of execution and ability, but basics are basics and sometimes the big guys act more like little kids than the little kids.
Also, some fact correcting is in order here. As posted earlier this year, I have drunk the Kool Aid on Manny. He can do whatever he wants since his numbers are crucial to the Sox lineup and that overides all the sh** Tito has to eat to get them. I'm serious on this. More importantly, our 10-year-old team was the Royals and we certainly had questionable chemistry, but we finished in second place so it really had no affect. In contrast, our 11-year old team (the Pioneers) was the best behaved, most cooperative team I have ever managed. Outstanding kids with wonderful chemistry. We finished 3-16 and one of the wins was a forfeit. Go figure.

4. Hindsight is fun but not fair. Guilty as charged. Hindsight is the bedrock of sports. If I could make accurate analyses before they happened, I would be a big league GM. Instead I am a couch potatoe with a death grip on the clicker. Plus I can change my mind any time I want. Isn't that why we are so addicted to sports? Plus I'd rather have fun than be fair.

5. A player's value can be judged beyond what they did in today's game. Of course but what fun is that? (There's that fun thing again.) "Oh well. Tek struck out three times and hit into a double play and stranded eight guys in scoring position including the potential winning runs in the bottom of the ninth. That's okay. I know he has real value to the team and the pitching staff needs him desperately so I won't be upset." Uh... I don't think so. Emotion is good. You have to blow off steam and that means making evaluations every inning of every game. "Fan" is short for fanatic, you know.

6. Sabermetric statistics are superior to the counting stats of old. Again, I happen to agree with that. I am not a Bill James Numbers Nazi like Kevin, but I do understand and appreciate the value of OBP and VORP. I actually fancy myself a bit of an advanced statitician. For example, when I managed in Little League (heh, heh), I invented several statistics that were relevant at that level one being BPIP (Balls put in play). The theory was that nine and ten year olds couldn't field very well so the more times the ball was put in play the higher the chance they would reach base and therefore the more runs we would score. So I always batted the kids with a higher BPIP up in the batting order. I think I was ahead of my time. James eat your heart out.

7. Plate discipline is an asset. Again, I agree. And another fact check here. If Kevin remembers, it used to INFURIATE me when Nomar always swung at the first pitch. I would regularly make snap judgements about him in those situations. See #5 above.

8. Strikeouts aren't always a bad thing. This one I have a real problem with. If the best you can hope for someone is that "it's better they struck out then hit into a double play" then you have a real problem on your hands. I guess if giving up an out on a bunt is a bad thing, how is giving up an out on a strike out a good thing? At least with the bunt, you move the runner over. My point is that they both suck. And Mark Bellhorn sucked in 2005 and no one can tell me different. If he had singled, he also would have kept a lot of innings alive and would have provided another RBI opportunity for Ortiz and Ramirez.

9. Trot Nixon was awesome. Again agreed with a heavy emphasis on "was". If Kevin thinks Trot can still contribute, then he has abandoned his Jamesian statistical analysis and has drifted into Grady Little/Joe Morgan gut style decision making. But rather than badmouth Trot, who I happen to like, I will let "SB Blogger" say it. This was posted on January 19:

"Mark Shapiro confirmed he is not the guy to finish the Indians' rebuilding process by signing Trot Nixon to a one year, three million dollar deal. Nothing against Trot Nixon, other than he is old, in a his decline that appears to have a severe power drop off, and can really only hit right handed pitching. However, the Indians have no need of Trot Nixon's services as they have a much younger and cheaper right fielder in Shin-Soo Chin, who will almost certainly outperform Nixon. The signing only accomplishes taking plate appearances away from other hitters, namely Choo and Garko."

And a half...Spring Training statistics don't mean a thing. Well of course they don't, but I would think a James disciple like Kevin would appreciate using something to back up opinions rather than just subjective snap judgement and venting. And if they don't mean anything, why are they kept and published?

Overall, Kevin and I aren't that far afield (no surprise there since I spent most of his life beating my opinions into him). We do have several disagreements but good sports arguments are healthy and make for fun blogging.

I do think I took a couple of bad raps in the 9.5, but I can take it. However, Spring training can't end fast enough. Then I will have some good data and time to make some genuine, reasoned, thoughful comments regarding how the Sox will do this year. And of course I will do this by the end of the first week of April and will change every day thereafter.

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Be careful what you wish for.

Its the safe move.

It's what we used to call a "beige choice" in college - easy, vanilla, risk-free.

But a wise man once told me, before I even understood what it meant:

"No balls, no babies."

Will Papelbon be a solid closer? Of course he will. He may not put up the Hall-of-Fame numbers he did last year, but he'll certainly be one of the most effective closers in the league. Unless he pitched yesterday, of course. Or if we need two innings, sorry, he won't be available for that. But absolutely - the twenty pitches he gives us every other night will be nothing short of magical.

And of course it is naive to think Paps has been miraculously healed by the Florida sun and some freshly squeezed orange juice. But it is just as naive to think he is now healthy! Unless the Sox docs (the Dox?) were lying to us in the fall, Paps' shoulder is a cause for concern, and will continue to be a cause for concern for the rest of his career. The front office has obviously decided it is better to appease the old guard of "This is the year!" fans who will erupt at the first blown save than to protect the career of an excellent young pitcher. Who cares if Paps' shoulder falls off in the offseason - this is the year!

There is a bigger issue at play, however. Now that we will be graced with cameo appearances from Mr. Papelbon on a bi-nightly basis, Tom in Boston's "Gong Show" has been rescheduled to air every fifth day.

The Sox obviously assume they are dealing from a position of depth in regards to their rotation in moving Paps to the pen. Remember the last time we heard great things about the depth of the rotation? Don't think back too far...it was only one year ago that the Sox went into spring training with seven, count 'em, seven starting pitchers. From such depth, the Sox were able to deal Bronson Arroyo and let a young starter named Jon Papelbon wait his turn in the bullpen.

That depth panned out so well in the regular season that Kyle Snyder only had to make ten starts, Julian Tavarez got the nod for six, Lenny Dinardo got the baseball six times, Jason Johnson took the hill six times, Kason Gabbard got four chances to strike fear into the opposition, Kevin Jarvis saw his name at the top of the box score thrice, David Pauley had three chances to be a footnote on SportsCenter, and Devern Hansack's parents had two chances to see their little boy start a game as a professional. That's 40 starts (25% of the season...incidentally the same percentage of blown saves Clemens suffered) that we're punting on this season; 40 chances for Tito to give the regulars a day off on a Sunday afternoon and hope for the best tomorrow.

And that's just now that we don't have a fifth starter. What if Beckett gets his blisters back, or Schill blows out his back, or Wake gets a hangnail? Now we have two days of five without a real chance at a W.

But there is always a silver lining, of course. At least under these circumstances, our boy Paps knows in advance which days he won't need to worry about protecting a late-game lead.

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Pap Is Free At Last!

What a day. On Tuesday, I planned on writing something about Manny the Used Grill Salesman. I scrubbed that idea on Wednesday when my offspring called me out. In fact, I had already written my response to the 9.5 Theses and was planning to post them today. But that will have to wait until next time.

Today is Emancipation Day!

The Sox finally came to their senses and made the only decision they could make...and one they should have made from Day One. The Hostage has been released. Pap is back at the end of the pen where he belongs. The Red Sox staff is much better off for it.

So much for the first of Kevin's "Theses."

To review Theses #1 postulated that "Starters are more valuable than closers." Kevin ended his statistics-laden analysis that a good starter is better than a good closer with this question: "Would you rather have 200 innings (13% of a season) of top-ten pitching, or 35 saves instead of the 25 to 30 you'd get from the next best closer?"

Theo, Tito and the Red Sox organization's answer? "Uh...We'll take the saves."

And for good reason. Here's what I wrote last night in response to Thesis #1 prior to today's great news.

"Yes good starting pitching is crucial. This year's Sox staff can be terrific. But Kevin misses my point. Without someone on the back end to close out games, a ton of quality seven and eight inning starts are going to be wasted. I think we can all agree that if each of the Sox starters pitched 225 innings this year, it would be awesome and probably unprecedented. But even with that Herculean workload, with 32 starts for each, that would still average out to only 7 innings per game. A lot can happen in those final two innings.

Let's take...oh...Roger Clemens as an example. In his final three years with the Sox (94-96) Roger was 9-7, 10-5, 10-13 and was accused of being fat and out of shape. In those three seasons, his ERA's were 2.85, 4.18, 3.63. According to Diamond Mind Baseball, in Roger's career with the Sox, he turned 147 games over to the bullpen with a lead. The Sox arson squad in those days blew 37 of them. That's 25%. So my point is not that starting pitching is not important, it's that it can be totally neutralized without some coming in and nailing down the wins. (Pap held hostage: Day 31)."

My point was reinforced by former Met GM Steve Philips who appeared on ESPN's Mike Felger show today after the announcement. He basically started with the same assumption as Kevin, that Pap could give the Sox 200 solid innings as a starter as opposed to 80 innings as a closer. But he went on to say that it doesn't work that way. He stressed that by putting Papelbon back in the closer's role, the Sox would be "protecting" potentially 800 innings (200 innings each from Schilling, Matsusaka, Beckett and Wakefield). He stated that without a solid closer, many of those innings would be wasted without someone to nail things down in the end game.

Philips also said that earlier in the day before The Announcement, someone asked him in an interview if the Yankmees had anything to worry about from the Sox. He answered that the Yanks would only have to be concerned if two things happened: 1) Beckett regains his National League form and 2) Papelbon goes back to the closer role. We're halfway to giving New York something to think about.

Which brings me to my final point. What was this entire charade about anyway? I have a theory and I believe it was borne out in one of Pap's quotes today. In announcing the decision it came out that Papelbon went into Francona's office and asked to be put back in the closer's role. Tito went on to say that "if the team had any doubts about Papelbon's health, it wouldn't have mattered that Papelbon wanted to close. He would have walked Papelbon right out of his office if that had been the case."

Despite all the protestations, I believe the real issue behind all this was that Pap wanted to start. The Sox realized that the kid was lights out last year but he was still going to be making only about $350K this season. I think Paplebon went to Theo and Tito and said something like, "Look if you're not going to pay me, can you at least let me be a starter again?" The Sox then used the flimsy medical excuse as a reason to appease the young star without having to come up with any additional cash. Pap going in today and asking for the role back took the Sox off the hook and let them do what they wanted to do all along but didn't for fear of upsetting their young stud.

Either that or Our Lady of Lourdes made a miraculous appearance in Fort Myers, sprinkled some healing water in the whirlpool at City of Palms park and...poof!...the shoulder was all better.

Please. Don't be naive.

In either case, let's not quibble about the process. Let's rejoice that all's right in the Sox pen and that the Sox sterling starting staff may have a chance to put up the numbers we think they can.

Now as for Julian Tavarez as the fifth starter? That brings us to the next obvious decision the Sox have to make. Jon Lester held hostage.....

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Kevin's 9.5 Theses

We are just about a month into this noble experiment and our loyal readers everywhere are about to get a glimpse of the arguments that pepper almost every conversation my father and I have regarding our national pastime.

I have enjoyed getting my father's opinions in print so that when the arguments get turned around in three to six months, I'll have his opinions formally recorded in writing to throw back in his face - a luxury I did not have growing up. (For those of you keeping score at home, we are currently on day 8,684 of "Smarter Baseball Fan Held Hostage By Stubborn Father" watch.)

So I am nailing my 9.5 Theses to the doors of the house I grew up in to outline the major points of contention between the old guard and the new.

1. Starters are more valuable than closers.
One of his favorite sayings, especially around the playoffs, is "Good pitching beats good hitting," to which I agree. I disagree with his apparent assertation that "a little timely good pitching beats lots of regular good pitching." Last year as a closer, Paps put up 68 innings of 0.92 ERA baseball and notched 35 saves. An excellent season for a closer, for sure. Let's say we can strech him out to 204 innings this season as a starter (three times as many innings as he pitched last year, but also exactly how many innings Josh Beckett threw). We can't expect him to maintain that miniscule ERA over longer outings. But even if his ERA triples, he'd still have a 2.76 ERA - which would have been one-hundreth of a point better than Johan Santana. If it quadruples, a 3.68 ERA would have been the ninth best in the AL last year. Would you rather have 200 innings (13% of a season) of top-ten pitching, or 35 saves instead of the 25 to 30 you'd get from the next best closer?

2. Bunting is generally stupid.
A major issue, although I'm beginning to win this one out, I think. I was raised to always move the runner over no matter what - but with the hitters in the American League today, that out you sacrifice to move a runner into scoring position just isn't worth it. I always smile when these small market teams lay down a bunt in the third inning to advance a runner from first to second...thank you for the out, see you next inning.

3. What happened in little league can in no way be compared to major league baseball.
"Kevin, they'd be better without Manny on the team, no matter how well he hits. He's tearing the clubhouse apart!"
"Tom, they don't care! As long as he keeps hitting, it doesn't matter what he's like off the field!"
"Kevin, you've had bad teammates. Remember our 10-year-old Cardinals team in 1993? Bad chemistry killed us!"
Because ten-year-olds playing little league baseball is a reasonable comparison to multi-million dollar professional-athelete grown men.

4. Hindsight is fun but not fair.
See his entire review of Theo's tenure. He acknowledges but glosses over all the good stuff, but spends several paragraphs covering Ramiro Mendoza and Javy Lopez the catcher who was the only available catcher at the time - but don't let the facts get in the way.

5. A player's value can be judged beyond what they did in today's game.
"Tough error for Lugo out there tonight."
"That guy sucks."
"What do you mean? He's been fine all spring!"
"Sucks. Where's Alex Gonzalez?
"Alex Gonzalez put up an OBP of .299 last year."
"Ya, but Lugo sucks. Should trade him for a bucket of baseballs and call it a day."
"*Sigh*"

6. Sabremetric statistics are superior to the counting stats of old.
Wins and batting average and saves versus OPS and VORP and range factors. I embrace the new wave stuff, he embraces fielding ratings based on Strat-O-Matic baseball cards. What can you do.

7. Plate discipline is an asset.
I think a tightly turned double play is the definition of poetry in motion. My guiltiest pleasure in a baseball game, however, is watching a good hitter work a ten-plus-pitch at bat. Youk is the best at this, especially considering he's not a great hitter - he'll just flick out his bat ten, twelve, fifteen times in a row, until he gets the pitch he wants and just pokes a little base hit out to right field. With all these pitchers on strict pitch counts and bullpens woefully understaffed for the middle innings, the key to success is accumulating pitches. Tom never minded when Nomar would swing at every first pitch he saw.

8. Strikeouts aren't always a bad thing.
Also known as the Mark Bellhorn debate. With a runner on first, I would rather have the batter strike out than hit a ground ball, because the ground ball would lead to a double play. Of course I'd rather see a base hit, but if the guy is going to make an out, just whiff and keep the runner alive. In 2004, Bellhorn led the league in strikeouts but only grounded into 8 double plays in 523 at bats...which kept innings alive for two guys named Ortiz and Ramirez.

9. Trot Nixon was awesome.
And they should retire his number.

And a half... Spring training statistics don't mean a thing
This won't be an ongoing argument because ST mercifully wraps up in a couple of weeks, but I am tired of seeing 3 2/3 innings of spring training pitching being used to assess the value of a signing!

Let's put it this way: What if one of the guys we signed hit .354 in 65 at-bats in Fort Myers, could field all the infield positions, and was fast enough to pinch run? Tom in Boston would be thrilled, right?

Well, no one was thrilled in 2004 when good ol' Caesar Crespo put up that line in Spring Training, then proceeded to bat a lusty .165 over the first 80 ABs of the regular season.

Spring Training doesn't mean anything. Talk to me when the games count - then we'll see who was worth what.

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