Wednesday, February 28

Call me a traditionalist.


Tonight, your Boston Red Sox will play baseball together for the first time since they were swept at Fenway Park during the fourth weekend in August last summer, and all should be right with the world. However, there are a couple of items that I've noticed in the papers the past couple of days that are really grinding my gears.

On the other end of the spectrum of tradition, local New York idiot and Times sports "writer" Murray Chass wrote a particularly insightful passage in his column on Tuesday regarding the new wave of statistical analysis in baseball. And I quote:

"I recieve a daily e-mail message from Baseball Prospectus, an electronic publication filled with articles and information about statistics that only stats mongers can love.

"To me, VORP epitomized the new-age nonsense. For the longest time I had no idea what VORP meant and didn't care enough to go to any great lengths to find out. I asked some colleagues whose work I respect, and they didn't know what it meant either.

"Finally, not long ago, I came across VORP spelled out. It stands for value over replacement player. How thrilling. How absurd. Value over replacement player. Don't ask me what it means. I don't know.

"I suppose that if stats mongers want to sit at their computers and play with these things all day long, that's their [sic] prerogative. But their attempt to introduce these new-age statistics into the game threatens to undermine most fans' enjoyment of baseball and the human factor therein.

"People play baseball. Numbers don't."

Just to lay out a quick point of fact, if you google VORP, the second item that comes up is a page titled "Introduction to VORP: Value Over Replacement Player." I understand Murray may not have had time to do such a time-consuming activity, but you would think he would be able to squeeze it into his schedule, seeing as how it is his job to talk about sports.

Can you imagine something like this happening in any other line of work? Imagine if there was a problem that doctors around the world were trying to wrap their minds around, and suddenly in one corner of the industry there was an innovation, a breakthrough. If you cared about the business at all, wouldn't you at least check it out and do the most basic level of research? Sure, VORP is a totally geeky statistic, but it is a fascinating new angle to look at statisics. How could that conceivably undermine anyone's enjoyment of the game? Are geeks going to black out simple numbers for the less developed fans like Murray, replacing his antiquated "batting averages" and "win-loss records" with things like OPS and win shares? Heaven forfend!

This is the kind of surly rant one would come to expect if you brought up the advanced sabermetric statistics to your grandfather, who was a blue-collar fan of the Sox since the days of Pinky Higgins. But writing about sports is Murray Chass' profession. It is his job to know about things like this.

But that's fine. Let Murray remain in the late 1930s in terms of his statistical tools, and he can keep telling his loyal readership that Derek Jeter is an excellent fielder (it can be statistically disproven) or that Johnny Damon is so valuable because of his base-stealing ability (its his plate discipline).

Finally, the last item for the evening is the rumblings surrounding the Baseball Hall of Fame's Veteran's Commitee shutting out all its applicants for another year. Jane Forbes Clark, the chari of the Hall of Fame, said yesterday that these results "may decide...[the process] needs a little bit of a change."

I would argue: Why? Remember, before the Veteran's Commitee gets to even vote on a player, they must have been declined by the Baseball Writers' Association for fifteen years. These are not outstanding players - simply by virtue of surviving on the writer's ballot for fifteen years, they are probably the definition of mediocre or fringe Hall of Famers. And I thought the Hall of Fame was reserved for the Best, not the Yeah, Probably Good Enough, I Guess.

The Veterans Comittee is an oversight commitee. They did a great job several years ago in inducting a bunch of Negro League players who had been ignored by the BBWAA. That is what the committee is for, not for allowing a Ron Santo or a Tony Oliva to sneak into Cooperstown through the back door.

Keep the Hall of Fame elite. There are too many people in there already.

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Monday, February 26

Hold Your Fire On Drew


Warning: This one is going to seriously piss off Junior in NY.

Like many Sox fans over the past few months, I admit to being poisoned by the ravenous Boston media in regards to JD Drew. I can honestly say that I have only peripheral knowledge of the Sox new right fielder having decided to focus on the Major League the past few years. However, like most knee-jerk Sox fans, I have come to loathe JD, because of the passionless way he plays - when he is healthy enough to be in the line up that is.

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Saturday, February 24

Setting the Bar


There has been much speculation regarding what kind of numbers we can expect from Daisuke Matsuzaka in his first season in the American League. Some are expecting Pedro from the '99 All-Star game or coming out of the bullpen in Cleveland, and others expect the young righty to be Boston's Hideki Irabu. I think its safe to say his actual production will fall somewhere between these two extremes.

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Thursday, February 22

Six Man Rotation? Why Not?


It was almost a throwaway line from Curt Schilling during a lengthy interview on Sunday.

"We have a chance to have the best rotation in baseball," Schilling said. "We need to be healthy. That's every club. It's just a matter of getting out of Florida with the same five guys you started with. I think we have almost a six-man rotation, depending on how Jonny [Lester] comes along."

Six man rotation? Great idea. Why not?

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Tuesday, February 20

Arod's Contract with the Reporters



"Let's make a contract; you don't ask about Derek anymore, and I promise I'll stop lying to you."
-Alex Rodriguez negotiating with reporters, February 19.

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Monday, February 19

Foulke Hero


The news out of Cleveland last Friday that Keith Foulke has retired due to injuries and will not be reporting to the Indians was greeted by Sox Nation with general apathy and more than a few healthy shots of "Good Riddance."

That's unfortunate.

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When Mike Mussina calls you out...


Nutless Yankee hurler Mike Mussina grabbed some headlines this week when he called out Carl Pavano for not "showing enough guts" in his effort to retake the hill for the pinstripes, saying Pavano has a long way to go before he regains the confidence of his teammates.

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Friday, February 16

Manny's My Man


Folksinger Joni Mitchell (forgive the aging Gammons music reference) once sang "Don't it always seem to go, that you don't know what you've got til it's gone." When it comes to Manny Ramirez, I have finally come around to the fact that I don't want him to leave, and thankfully he didn't have to go for me to realize what we have.

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Pitchers and catchers report


It has been almost six months since the devestating "Boston Massacre" ended the Sox hopes for 2006, and today the hurting can finally come to an end. Pitchers and catchers are reporting to Fort Myers for six weeks of soft toss, meaningless exhibition games, and golf. Meanwhile, those of us buried under snow in the Northeast will have six weeks of sporadic media coverage to hope and dream and predict what the upcoming season holds.

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Thursday, February 15

Footnotes in Sox History


We are clearly at the epicenter of the most dynamic Red Sox interest explosion in history. And as if the current hysteria wasn’t at a high enough level, we have Matsuzaka Mania about to strike and take things to new, unimagined heights. In the past five years, everything the Sox do is documented, discussed and dissected on radio, TV and online. All information is available 24/7.

But as is usually the case in this era of information overload and instant gratification, all the information is of recent vintage. Over the years, many traditions and tidbits regarding Boston baseball have slowly faded away and are no longer common knowledge to the noveau-Sox fans. I felt it was my duty to rectify that by cataloguing some interesting facts of Sox days gone by that might be of interest to today’s citizens of Sox Nation.

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Tuesday, February 13

Exit Sandman?


One of my favorite things about living in the city is walking past the newsstand in the morning before I've turned on a television or checked my email and learning of the latest world news from a blaring and usually tasteless headline slapped across either of the New York daily rags. Today was no exception, as I quickly perked up upon seeing Yankees closer Mariano Rivera pumping his fist on the back of the Daily News next to the headline:

"CLOSING TIME: Mo ready to bolt if Yanks don't show him respect"

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Monday, February 12

What Might Have Been


Revisionist history can be tricky. Especially when it comes to sports teams where one move made or another not made can have a dramatic effect on the fortunes of a franchise. That doesn’t mean we can’t do it and that it isn’t a lot of fun. It can also spark some interesting debates. Okay, you talked me into it. Let’s do it.

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AGING, EXPENSIVE SOX SHOULD CONTEND IN ‘07

Featuring one of the oldest (31.6 years average) and second richest ($154 million) 25 man rosters in the majors, the 2007 Red Sox figure to be a top contender to capture their second World Series championship in the last four years.

Should the everyday lineup and the AARP starting rotation hold up over a grueling six month grind, there is no question that the Sox will be in the mix at the end of the season. That’s a big if, however, considering there will only be one Sox starter under 30 (28 year old third baseman Kevin Youkilis) and the starting rotation will feature two forty year olds and will average almost 35 years old. But those are worries for another day. Let’s take a look at the line up and see what we can expect from this veteran club in 07.

First base: Todd Helton (33, $12.6 mil with Colorado eating $4 million of the contract). This is a major upgrade which should pay dividends. Yes it was tough to part with Julian Tavarez, Manny Delcarmen and Craig Hansen to get him last month, but help was desperately needed here. The platoon of Kevin Millar and Youkilis the past two years has proven to be a bust and Millar’s constant whining about sharing time with Youk finally took its toll on the clubhouse. It was time to let Millar move on and even if Helton slips a little, the Sox are in much better shape here than the past two years.

Second base: Hanley Ramirez (23, $350K) One of the few places in the roster that features both youth and economy. Last season's decision to bring Ramirez up and hand him the second base job rather than having him rot in the minors was a master stroke. Hanley’s .292 average and sparkling defensive play were only a couple of reasons the youngster ran away with the AL Rookie of the Year award. With a year of experience under his belt, the exciting youngster will only get better this season.

Shortstop: Orlando Cabrera (32, $8.5 millon) Theo’s decision to lock up O-Cab for four years after '04 continues to look inspired. Instead of trying to lure in one of the more sexy free agent choices, the Sox knew what they had in the sparkplug Cabrera and decided he was the answer. Cabrera thrives in the Fenway hothouse and continues to provide solid defense and timely hitting. The chemistry with Ramirez will only get better in year two which gives the Sox a solid double play combination.

Third Base: Youkilis (28, 400K). With "The Pro" Bill Mueller finally breaking down last year and retiring following four great years in Boston, Youk will finally have a position to call his own. Youk is an onbase machine and showed during Mueller’s long absences last year that he can play solid defense at the hot corner.

Left Field: Manny Ramirez (34, $18 million). As long as Manny continues to be Manny, things will be fine. Yes there will be outbursts and drama, but at the end of the year, Manny will put up the best numbers of any righthanded hitter in the majors.

Center Field: Johnny Damon (33, $13 million). One can only shudder to think how history would have been changed if Theo hadn’t swooped in at the end of the ’05 season with a preemptive 52 million offer strike that took Damon off the free agent board and locked him up through ’09. The Yanks were drooling to get their hands on him but instead of ripping out the heart and soul of the Sox and plugging a gaping hole in their line up, the Bombers have struggled with an aging Bernie Williams, injury prone Torri Hunter and not ready for prime time Melky Cabrera. Meanwhile “In Johnny we Trust” as the Cavemen continues to grow his hair, run through walls, get on base regularly and inspire, cajole or embarrass Manny to play over 150 games every year.

Right Field: J. D. Drew (31, $14 million). Tough one here as the Sox finally said good bye to Trot Nixon and obscenely overpaid to replace him. Of course it’s not our money, so if Drew stays healthy, he will definitely put up better numbers than Trot. And no one can argue that Damon, OC, Ortiz, Ramirez, Drew is not a frightening prospect for opposing pitchers.

Catcher: Jason Varitek (35, $10 million). Yes, Theo overspent to keep the captain, but overall money well spent considering the options either in free agency or within the organization. Kelly Shoppach will be a solid number two and should be able to take over should Tek go down.

DH: David Ortiz (32, $7.75 million). Only the best. Theo’s most imspired pick up and the key to this lineup. Still in his prime and should put up eyepopping numbers again.

Reserves: Theo should get jail time for the heist of Alex Cora (31, $2 million) for Ramon Vasquez. Dave Roberts (34, $6 million) is the best fourth outfielder in baseball even though he is a bit pricy. Dustin Pedroia (22, $350K) in the infield and David Murphy (25, $350K) in the outfield provide much needed youth and payroll relief.

Starting pitching:
Curt Shilling (40, $13 million). The Big Schill had a nice bounceback year in ’06 and should continue to maintain his status as ace this year. He has lost a little off his velocity but he still has outstanding command and the guts to get big hitters out.

Daisuke Matsusaka (26, $8.6 million) The loss of Pedro until August could have been a devastating blow, but the Sox just threw more money at the problem to land the Dice man. The move infuses the rotation with some youth and talent and paves the way for D-Mat to take over as the Ace when Schill and Pedro move on.

Derek Lowe (33, $9 million). D-Lowe struggled with his alcohol problem in '05, but that seems to be behind him now as he settles in for another solid year of 12-15 wins and clutch performances in the post season. The four year $32 million looked like too big a deal two years ago, but with the Gil Meche’s of the world pulling down $11 million, D-Lowe has turned out to be a bargain.

Tim Wakefield (40, $4 million). Talk about bargains. Wake will again eat up 200 innings and get 10-15 wins and would be worth it at double the price.

Bronson Arroyo (30, $3.7 million). Another valuable asset that Theo has to be glad he held on to. With the age of the staff, it is crucial to have a reliable, durable innings eater like Arroyo to plug into the rotation when they need him. Once Pedro comes back, Bronson can move back to the bullpen for the stretch run or be available to plug in should any of the other old timers break down.

Pedro Martinez (35, $15.1 million). After a great '05 Petey broke down last year as most felt he would, but early reports are he should be back by midseason. If he can bring anything back to the table, he will be a better upgrade than any help that might be available at the trading deadline.

Bullpen:

Jonathan Papelbon (27, $450,000). The best closer in the league will be back and is the key to the Sox relief corps. With the solid middle relief last season, Pap only had to come in for one inning at a time which allowed him to hold up well over the season. Look for another lights out year in ’07.

Mike Timlin (41, $2.8 million). A little long in the tooth, but still a steady influence to help bridge the gap from the starters to Pap.

Jon Lester (23, $400K). With Arroyo in the starting rotation, Lester will be asked to come in and fill this role. Even though he is coming off the cancer scare last year, Lester benefited greatly from starting all year at Pawtucket before his illness. He is now ready and will plug a big hole in the late innings. Plus he will be able to step into the rotation should the need arise. Once Pedro is back, Arroyo jumps back here to make the late game relief as good as any in the majors.

Mike Myers (37, $1.2 millioin) Economical, effective left hander. Myers is crucial in helping to hose down top heavy lefty lineups like the Yanks. He proved that last season in that crucial five game series in August where he appeared in four of five games as the Sox swept the Yanks out of town.

Hideki Okajima (30, $1.2 million). You can never have enough lefties with the Yankees as your main rival. Imagine facing the Bombers in a crucial series without effective left handed pitching? It would be ugly. Okajima provides veteran experience and will help Matsusaka with the transition to baseball in the US.

So there you have it. Old? Yes. Overpaid? Maybe. But the results speak for themselves. If they can keep the injuries to a minimum there is no reason the Sox can’t win their third straight AL East title and cruise into the post season for the fifth straight year.

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An interesting sidenote that I didn't realize until I completed the article. The real Sox roster in '07 will come in at just about the same salary as my mythical one. The question: Which $160 million team would you rather have going into this season?

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Sunday, February 11

Being a Red Sox fan is hard enough.


The history of heartache that dogged this franchise for the 86 years between World Championships has caused mental scarring in many members of the senior members of Red Sox Nation.

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Saturday, February 10

New York? New York?


He could have gone anywhere else and it would have been fine. New York. Why New York?

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