What Might Have Been

Revisionist history can be tricky. Especially when it comes to sports teams where one move made or another not made can have a dramatic effect on the fortunes of a franchise. That doesn’t mean we can’t do it and that it isn’t a lot of fun. It can also spark some interesting debates. Okay, you talked me into it. Let’s do it.

Theo (and his temporary replacements during the gorilla phase) and the trio have taken some buffeting in the past few years over the way they heartlessly broke up “The 25” who finally brought home a Red Sox World Championship. What other choice did they have? Well, let’s consider what would have happened had the Sox brass taken another tack. We’ll call it the “let’s milk the stars we have for all they’re worth until we run the franchise into the ground” strategy which the Celtics employed to such rave results in the late 80’s and early 90’s. What would have been the result for the Sox had that special ‘04 club been kept intact?

Let's find out. The following is a hypothetical preview of the 2007 season had the Sox maintained such a “stay the course” strategy. For your consideration…what might have been.

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AGING, EXPENSIVE SOX SHOULD CONTEND IN ‘07

Featuring one of the oldest (31.6 years average) and second richest ($154 million) 25 man rosters in the majors, the 2007 Red Sox figure to be a top contender to capture their second World Series championship in the last four years.

Should the everyday lineup and the AARP starting rotation hold up over a grueling six month grind, there is no question that the Sox will be in the mix at the end of the season. That’s a big if, however, considering there will only be one Sox starter under 30 (28 year old third baseman Kevin Youkilis) and the starting rotation will feature two forty year olds and will average almost 35 years old. But those are worries for another day. Let’s take a look at the line up and see what we can expect from this veteran club in 07.

First base: Todd Helton (33, $12.6 mil with Colorado eating $4 million of the contract). This is a major upgrade which should pay dividends. Yes it was tough to part with Julian Tavarez, Manny Delcarmen and Craig Hansen to get him last month, but help was desperately needed here. The platoon of Kevin Millar and Youkilis the past two years has proven to be a bust and Millar’s constant whining about sharing time with Youk finally took its toll on the clubhouse. It was time to let Millar move on and even if Helton slips a little, the Sox are in much better shape here than the past two years.

Second base: Hanley Ramirez (23, $350K) One of the few places in the roster that features both youth and economy. Last season's decision to bring Ramirez up and hand him the second base job rather than having him rot in the minors was a master stroke. Hanley’s .292 average and sparkling defensive play were only a couple of reasons the youngster ran away with the AL Rookie of the Year award. With a year of experience under his belt, the exciting youngster will only get better this season.

Shortstop: Orlando Cabrera (32, $8.5 millon) Theo’s decision to lock up O-Cab for four years after '04 continues to look inspired. Instead of trying to lure in one of the more sexy free agent choices, the Sox knew what they had in the sparkplug Cabrera and decided he was the answer. Cabrera thrives in the Fenway hothouse and continues to provide solid defense and timely hitting. The chemistry with Ramirez will only get better in year two which gives the Sox a solid double play combination.

Third Base: Youkilis (28, 400K). With "The Pro" Bill Mueller finally breaking down last year and retiring following four great years in Boston, Youk will finally have a position to call his own. Youk is an onbase machine and showed during Mueller’s long absences last year that he can play solid defense at the hot corner.

Left Field: Manny Ramirez (34, $18 million). As long as Manny continues to be Manny, things will be fine. Yes there will be outbursts and drama, but at the end of the year, Manny will put up the best numbers of any righthanded hitter in the majors.

Center Field: Johnny Damon (33, $13 million). One can only shudder to think how history would have been changed if Theo hadn’t swooped in at the end of the ’05 season with a preemptive 52 million offer strike that took Damon off the free agent board and locked him up through ’09. The Yanks were drooling to get their hands on him but instead of ripping out the heart and soul of the Sox and plugging a gaping hole in their line up, the Bombers have struggled with an aging Bernie Williams, injury prone Torri Hunter and not ready for prime time Melky Cabrera. Meanwhile “In Johnny we Trust” as the Cavemen continues to grow his hair, run through walls, get on base regularly and inspire, cajole or embarrass Manny to play over 150 games every year.

Right Field: J. D. Drew (31, $14 million). Tough one here as the Sox finally said good bye to Trot Nixon and obscenely overpaid to replace him. Of course it’s not our money, so if Drew stays healthy, he will definitely put up better numbers than Trot. And no one can argue that Damon, OC, Ortiz, Ramirez, Drew is not a frightening prospect for opposing pitchers.

Catcher: Jason Varitek (35, $10 million). Yes, Theo overspent to keep the captain, but overall money well spent considering the options either in free agency or within the organization. Kelly Shoppach will be a solid number two and should be able to take over should Tek go down.

DH: David Ortiz (32, $7.75 million). Only the best. Theo’s most imspired pick up and the key to this lineup. Still in his prime and should put up eyepopping numbers again.

Reserves: Theo should get jail time for the heist of Alex Cora (31, $2 million) for Ramon Vasquez. Dave Roberts (34, $6 million) is the best fourth outfielder in baseball even though he is a bit pricy. Dustin Pedroia (22, $350K) in the infield and David Murphy (25, $350K) in the outfield provide much needed youth and payroll relief.

Starting pitching:
Curt Shilling (40, $13 million). The Big Schill had a nice bounceback year in ’06 and should continue to maintain his status as ace this year. He has lost a little off his velocity but he still has outstanding command and the guts to get big hitters out.

Daisuke Matsusaka (26, $8.6 million) The loss of Pedro until August could have been a devastating blow, but the Sox just threw more money at the problem to land the Dice man. The move infuses the rotation with some youth and talent and paves the way for D-Mat to take over as the Ace when Schill and Pedro move on.

Derek Lowe (33, $9 million). D-Lowe struggled with his alcohol problem in '05, but that seems to be behind him now as he settles in for another solid year of 12-15 wins and clutch performances in the post season. The four year $32 million looked like too big a deal two years ago, but with the Gil Meche’s of the world pulling down $11 million, D-Lowe has turned out to be a bargain.

Tim Wakefield (40, $4 million). Talk about bargains. Wake will again eat up 200 innings and get 10-15 wins and would be worth it at double the price.

Bronson Arroyo (30, $3.7 million). Another valuable asset that Theo has to be glad he held on to. With the age of the staff, it is crucial to have a reliable, durable innings eater like Arroyo to plug into the rotation when they need him. Once Pedro comes back, Bronson can move back to the bullpen for the stretch run or be available to plug in should any of the other old timers break down.

Pedro Martinez (35, $15.1 million). After a great '05 Petey broke down last year as most felt he would, but early reports are he should be back by midseason. If he can bring anything back to the table, he will be a better upgrade than any help that might be available at the trading deadline.

Bullpen:

Jonathan Papelbon (27, $450,000). The best closer in the league will be back and is the key to the Sox relief corps. With the solid middle relief last season, Pap only had to come in for one inning at a time which allowed him to hold up well over the season. Look for another lights out year in ’07.

Mike Timlin (41, $2.8 million). A little long in the tooth, but still a steady influence to help bridge the gap from the starters to Pap.

Jon Lester (23, $400K). With Arroyo in the starting rotation, Lester will be asked to come in and fill this role. Even though he is coming off the cancer scare last year, Lester benefited greatly from starting all year at Pawtucket before his illness. He is now ready and will plug a big hole in the late innings. Plus he will be able to step into the rotation should the need arise. Once Pedro is back, Arroyo jumps back here to make the late game relief as good as any in the majors.

Mike Myers (37, $1.2 millioin) Economical, effective left hander. Myers is crucial in helping to hose down top heavy lefty lineups like the Yanks. He proved that last season in that crucial five game series in August where he appeared in four of five games as the Sox swept the Yanks out of town.

Hideki Okajima (30, $1.2 million). You can never have enough lefties with the Yankees as your main rival. Imagine facing the Bombers in a crucial series without effective left handed pitching? It would be ugly. Okajima provides veteran experience and will help Matsusaka with the transition to baseball in the US.

So there you have it. Old? Yes. Overpaid? Maybe. But the results speak for themselves. If they can keep the injuries to a minimum there is no reason the Sox can’t win their third straight AL East title and cruise into the post season for the fifth straight year.

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An interesting sidenote that I didn't realize until I completed the article. The real Sox roster in '07 will come in at just about the same salary as my mythical one. The question: Which $160 million team would you rather have going into this season?