Kevin's 9.5 Theses

We are just about a month into this noble experiment and our loyal readers everywhere are about to get a glimpse of the arguments that pepper almost every conversation my father and I have regarding our national pastime.

I have enjoyed getting my father's opinions in print so that when the arguments get turned around in three to six months, I'll have his opinions formally recorded in writing to throw back in his face - a luxury I did not have growing up. (For those of you keeping score at home, we are currently on day 8,684 of "Smarter Baseball Fan Held Hostage By Stubborn Father" watch.)

So I am nailing my 9.5 Theses to the doors of the house I grew up in to outline the major points of contention between the old guard and the new.

1. Starters are more valuable than closers.
One of his favorite sayings, especially around the playoffs, is "Good pitching beats good hitting," to which I agree. I disagree with his apparent assertation that "a little timely good pitching beats lots of regular good pitching." Last year as a closer, Paps put up 68 innings of 0.92 ERA baseball and notched 35 saves. An excellent season for a closer, for sure. Let's say we can strech him out to 204 innings this season as a starter (three times as many innings as he pitched last year, but also exactly how many innings Josh Beckett threw). We can't expect him to maintain that miniscule ERA over longer outings. But even if his ERA triples, he'd still have a 2.76 ERA - which would have been one-hundreth of a point better than Johan Santana. If it quadruples, a 3.68 ERA would have been the ninth best in the AL last year. Would you rather have 200 innings (13% of a season) of top-ten pitching, or 35 saves instead of the 25 to 30 you'd get from the next best closer?

2. Bunting is generally stupid.
A major issue, although I'm beginning to win this one out, I think. I was raised to always move the runner over no matter what - but with the hitters in the American League today, that out you sacrifice to move a runner into scoring position just isn't worth it. I always smile when these small market teams lay down a bunt in the third inning to advance a runner from first to second...thank you for the out, see you next inning.

3. What happened in little league can in no way be compared to major league baseball.
"Kevin, they'd be better without Manny on the team, no matter how well he hits. He's tearing the clubhouse apart!"
"Tom, they don't care! As long as he keeps hitting, it doesn't matter what he's like off the field!"
"Kevin, you've had bad teammates. Remember our 10-year-old Cardinals team in 1993? Bad chemistry killed us!"
Because ten-year-olds playing little league baseball is a reasonable comparison to multi-million dollar professional-athelete grown men.

4. Hindsight is fun but not fair.
See his entire review of Theo's tenure. He acknowledges but glosses over all the good stuff, but spends several paragraphs covering Ramiro Mendoza and Javy Lopez the catcher who was the only available catcher at the time - but don't let the facts get in the way.

5. A player's value can be judged beyond what they did in today's game.
"Tough error for Lugo out there tonight."
"That guy sucks."
"What do you mean? He's been fine all spring!"
"Sucks. Where's Alex Gonzalez?
"Alex Gonzalez put up an OBP of .299 last year."
"Ya, but Lugo sucks. Should trade him for a bucket of baseballs and call it a day."
"*Sigh*"

6. Sabremetric statistics are superior to the counting stats of old.
Wins and batting average and saves versus OPS and VORP and range factors. I embrace the new wave stuff, he embraces fielding ratings based on Strat-O-Matic baseball cards. What can you do.

7. Plate discipline is an asset.
I think a tightly turned double play is the definition of poetry in motion. My guiltiest pleasure in a baseball game, however, is watching a good hitter work a ten-plus-pitch at bat. Youk is the best at this, especially considering he's not a great hitter - he'll just flick out his bat ten, twelve, fifteen times in a row, until he gets the pitch he wants and just pokes a little base hit out to right field. With all these pitchers on strict pitch counts and bullpens woefully understaffed for the middle innings, the key to success is accumulating pitches. Tom never minded when Nomar would swing at every first pitch he saw.

8. Strikeouts aren't always a bad thing.
Also known as the Mark Bellhorn debate. With a runner on first, I would rather have the batter strike out than hit a ground ball, because the ground ball would lead to a double play. Of course I'd rather see a base hit, but if the guy is going to make an out, just whiff and keep the runner alive. In 2004, Bellhorn led the league in strikeouts but only grounded into 8 double plays in 523 at bats...which kept innings alive for two guys named Ortiz and Ramirez.

9. Trot Nixon was awesome.
And they should retire his number.

And a half... Spring training statistics don't mean a thing
This won't be an ongoing argument because ST mercifully wraps up in a couple of weeks, but I am tired of seeing 3 2/3 innings of spring training pitching being used to assess the value of a signing!

Let's put it this way: What if one of the guys we signed hit .354 in 65 at-bats in Fort Myers, could field all the infield positions, and was fast enough to pinch run? Tom in Boston would be thrilled, right?

Well, no one was thrilled in 2004 when good ol' Caesar Crespo put up that line in Spring Training, then proceeded to bat a lusty .165 over the first 80 ABs of the regular season.

Spring Training doesn't mean anything. Talk to me when the games count - then we'll see who was worth what.