Tom Responds to the 9.5 Theses

It happens to the best of us. The son turning on the father. I should have known I was in trouble from Day Two of his life, when I held tiny Kevin in my arms as he totally ignored me and instead stared with unfocused eyes on that afternoon's Sox game showing on the TV hung high on the hospital room wall. (For the record on 6-11-83 the Sox fell 10-6 to the Orioles to drop to 28-28 for the year. They would go on to finish with a 78-84 record in sixth place - out of seven AL East teams - 28 games back of the pennant winning O's.) But I am proud to see that I helped raise an intelligent, thoughtful Red Sox fan, even if he is off base now and again.

So do I react to the 9.5 Theses as Pope Leo X responded to Martin Luther's 95 Theses? Just ignore them and hope they go away? I think not. I must respond.

On to the particulars.

1. Starters are more valuable than Closers.

:)

2. Bunting is generally stupid. No controversy here. The boy has won me over on this one. This is a case where my years of coaching Little League did affect my judgement. I have come to buy into the Moneyball mantra and agree that there are only a few rare occasions when it makes sense to give away an out.

3. What happened in Little League can in no way be compared to Major League baseball. True enough. The parks are a lot bigger and the manager doesn't have to bring oranges and water to the field. However, there are lessons to be learned at every level, even in Little League, that carry over. Obviously not in terms of execution and ability, but basics are basics and sometimes the big guys act more like little kids than the little kids.
Also, some fact correcting is in order here. As posted earlier this year, I have drunk the Kool Aid on Manny. He can do whatever he wants since his numbers are crucial to the Sox lineup and that overides all the sh** Tito has to eat to get them. I'm serious on this. More importantly, our 10-year-old team was the Royals and we certainly had questionable chemistry, but we finished in second place so it really had no affect. In contrast, our 11-year old team (the Pioneers) was the best behaved, most cooperative team I have ever managed. Outstanding kids with wonderful chemistry. We finished 3-16 and one of the wins was a forfeit. Go figure.

4. Hindsight is fun but not fair. Guilty as charged. Hindsight is the bedrock of sports. If I could make accurate analyses before they happened, I would be a big league GM. Instead I am a couch potatoe with a death grip on the clicker. Plus I can change my mind any time I want. Isn't that why we are so addicted to sports? Plus I'd rather have fun than be fair.

5. A player's value can be judged beyond what they did in today's game. Of course but what fun is that? (There's that fun thing again.) "Oh well. Tek struck out three times and hit into a double play and stranded eight guys in scoring position including the potential winning runs in the bottom of the ninth. That's okay. I know he has real value to the team and the pitching staff needs him desperately so I won't be upset." Uh... I don't think so. Emotion is good. You have to blow off steam and that means making evaluations every inning of every game. "Fan" is short for fanatic, you know.

6. Sabermetric statistics are superior to the counting stats of old. Again, I happen to agree with that. I am not a Bill James Numbers Nazi like Kevin, but I do understand and appreciate the value of OBP and VORP. I actually fancy myself a bit of an advanced statitician. For example, when I managed in Little League (heh, heh), I invented several statistics that were relevant at that level one being BPIP (Balls put in play). The theory was that nine and ten year olds couldn't field very well so the more times the ball was put in play the higher the chance they would reach base and therefore the more runs we would score. So I always batted the kids with a higher BPIP up in the batting order. I think I was ahead of my time. James eat your heart out.

7. Plate discipline is an asset. Again, I agree. And another fact check here. If Kevin remembers, it used to INFURIATE me when Nomar always swung at the first pitch. I would regularly make snap judgements about him in those situations. See #5 above.

8. Strikeouts aren't always a bad thing. This one I have a real problem with. If the best you can hope for someone is that "it's better they struck out then hit into a double play" then you have a real problem on your hands. I guess if giving up an out on a bunt is a bad thing, how is giving up an out on a strike out a good thing? At least with the bunt, you move the runner over. My point is that they both suck. And Mark Bellhorn sucked in 2005 and no one can tell me different. If he had singled, he also would have kept a lot of innings alive and would have provided another RBI opportunity for Ortiz and Ramirez.

9. Trot Nixon was awesome. Again agreed with a heavy emphasis on "was". If Kevin thinks Trot can still contribute, then he has abandoned his Jamesian statistical analysis and has drifted into Grady Little/Joe Morgan gut style decision making. But rather than badmouth Trot, who I happen to like, I will let "SB Blogger" say it. This was posted on January 19:

"Mark Shapiro confirmed he is not the guy to finish the Indians' rebuilding process by signing Trot Nixon to a one year, three million dollar deal. Nothing against Trot Nixon, other than he is old, in a his decline that appears to have a severe power drop off, and can really only hit right handed pitching. However, the Indians have no need of Trot Nixon's services as they have a much younger and cheaper right fielder in Shin-Soo Chin, who will almost certainly outperform Nixon. The signing only accomplishes taking plate appearances away from other hitters, namely Choo and Garko."

And a half...Spring Training statistics don't mean a thing. Well of course they don't, but I would think a James disciple like Kevin would appreciate using something to back up opinions rather than just subjective snap judgement and venting. And if they don't mean anything, why are they kept and published?

Overall, Kevin and I aren't that far afield (no surprise there since I spent most of his life beating my opinions into him). We do have several disagreements but good sports arguments are healthy and make for fun blogging.

I do think I took a couple of bad raps in the 9.5, but I can take it. However, Spring training can't end fast enough. Then I will have some good data and time to make some genuine, reasoned, thoughful comments regarding how the Sox will do this year. And of course I will do this by the end of the first week of April and will change every day thereafter.