Tuesday, April 17

Oh, Captain.

We've been spoiled over the past ten years.

Catchers are a rare breed. On the baseball diamond, they are the quarterback, coach, and amateur psychologist all rolled into one. They are both the field general and the bearer of the tools of ignorance. There have been many great receivers throughout the years, but very rarely are they as outstanding with the bat as they are behind the plate. Jason Varitek, once as intimidating a hitter as any catcher in the bigs, has now lost just about all of his value inside the batter's box.


Before Dan Duquette fleeced the Seattle Mariners in the deal that brought Varitek and Derek Lowe over for Healthcliffe Slocumb (seriously: how did that deal happen?), the Red Sox hadn't seen any offensive production from a catcher since #27 served as the backstop in 1978. After laboring through the feeble bat handling of the Rich Gedmans, Tony Penas, and Mike Macfarlanes of the world, the Fenway faithful were thrilled to have a catcher who not only won critical acclaim from pitchers and coaches alike for his game preparation but also provided an able 6 or 7 hitter in some of the most dangerous Sox lineups many of us are likely to see in our lifetimes.

For anyone who has followed the Sox since Varitek appeared on the scene in 1997, his value to the ballclub is obvious. The pitchers trust him; his teammates respect him; the front office views him as the model for a Red Sox baseball player. All of these factors led to Varitek recieving a four-year, $40 million contract that runs through 2008 while also being only the third Boston player in history to earn the title of Captain.

Now don't get me wrong - I love Jason Varitek. He is the lifeblood of this franchise, and imagining Brian Schneider or even the acclaimed Josh Bard as the catcher for the local nine after 2004 is cringe-inducing. I remember sitting in the seats so eloquently described in the preceding Patriots' Day post and seeing Varitek's thighs from ten feet away, and they have to be forty inches around - truly terrifying, the man can barely walk. One could argue he turned around the 2004 season by punching Alex Rodriguez in the face.

But have you actually looked at the numbers on this guy?

When Varitek took over as the full-time starter in 1999, he hit 20 homers and batted .269 with a .330 batting average in 144 games. Not bad for a 27-year-old catcher, right? From there, however, his numbers aren't that impressive outside of an excellent 2004 (18 homers, .296 BA, .390 OBP): if we average his ten years of service to date into a 162-game season (which is deceptive, because he'd never make it to 162 games for obvious reasons), he'd hit 20 homers, bat .268, get on base at a .347 clip, hit 35 doubles and strike out 118 times.

To put that kind of a career in perspective, baseballreference.com lists his top five most comparable batters throughout baseball history in the following order:

5. Corey Koskie
4. Darrin Fletcher
3. John Valentin
2. Mike Lieberthal
1. Mike Macfarlane

That's right, folks - Jason Varitek minus intangibles equals Mike Macfarlane.

So now Tek is aging faster than ever, and fans are starting to turn on him a little bit. He is still on the hook for this year and next year for about $22 million dollars, so he's not going anywhere. The top Sox catching prospect, the Greco-Canadian wonderkid George Kotteras, isn't going to be ready anytime soon.

So settle in, sports fans. We have entered the "crafty veteran" stage of Tek's career - no more homers, lots more strikeouts, much talk of his off-field preparation and value to the team. We've heard from numerous pundits that the Captain is worth his salary for his work in the clubhouse alone.

Let's hope so, because it surely doesn't look like he'll be earning it with a bat in his hands any time soon.

4 comments:

Corey said...

Mike Macfarlane was the shit.

This is all true though..do you think that Tek realistically can bat over .100 in his final season on his current contract? It could be ugly.

Kevin in New York said...

Very interesting question. I did a little research and compared the age 36 seasons for Tek's top 10 most comparable batters through age 34 (last season), according to baseballreference.com.

Of those ten hitters, six (John Valentin, Darren Fletcher, Mike Macfarlane, Mike Lieberthal, Tom Haller, and Ed Bailey) all retired before they made it to 36. Not a good sign.

The four that played until age 36 (Mike Stanley, Terry Steinbach, Elston Howard, and Sandy Alomar) put up the following average line in that season:

114 games played
381 at-bats
43 runs
98 hits
19 doubles
1 triple
12 homers
52 RBIs
0 stolen bases
35 walks
70 strikeouts
.259 batting average
.321 on-base percentage
.408 slugging percentage

The only player in the group who put up an OPS+ above 100 (which means approximately a league-average player) was Mike Stanley in 1999.

So will Tek break .100? I think so. I think the absolute ceiling should be set at Stanley's 19 homer, .281 batting average, .393 OBP season. Its possible.

Anonymous said...

I mean its just an idea, but the way I look at it is if Dougie started every game we'd have a guaranteed 50 homerun hitter. Sure 200 strike outs isnt a great statistic, but Doug's unbelievable leadership and clubhouse presence would more than make up for his lack of production.

I think its way too early to give up on Tek as a hitter. I think he has looked uncomfortable so far this year, and the pressure on him to get performance out of Dice-K and Beckett is wearing down on him. Its still only April, more than enough time to get a couple of hot months at the plate. As the pitchers start clicking with him more, I think we'll start to see the Tek we all love.

---The Owner

Corey said...

its not this year that worries me...he's looked uncomfortable throughout the 06 season too.