Setting the Bar

There has been much speculation regarding what kind of numbers we can expect from Daisuke Matsuzaka in his first season in the American League. Some are expecting Pedro from the '99 All-Star game or coming out of the bullpen in Cleveland, and others expect the young righty to be Boston's Hideki Irabu. I think its safe to say his actual production will fall somewhere between these two extremes.

I personally have set the benchmark for a successful season from the 26-year old at Josh Beckett's 2006 line. The Texan suffered a difficult transition out of the National League at the same age and put up the following line:

16-11 in 33 starts
5.01 ERA
158 Ks
74 BBs
204.2 innings pitched
153 hits allowed
120 runs allowed (114 earned)
10 hit batsmen
1.295 WHIP

Although Beckett was incredibly frustrating to watch at times, these numbers are not terrible for a younger pitcher in the American League East. I think Matsuzaka will put up a much more steady season (devoid of the highs and lows to which Beckett is subject) which will start out hot and slowly trend downwards as the hitters across the league learn of his style.

(Incidentally, I keep forgetting that a.) last year was Beckett's first in Boston and b.) he's only 27. I think this guy is going to have a very solid bounce-back season this year and be the new Schilling by the time he's 30.)

As for a ceiling for Matsuzaka, how do these numbers look:

19-7 in 33 starts
2.89 ERA
251 Ks
67 BBs
233.2 innings pitched
188 hits allowed
82 runs allowed (75 earned)
8 hit batsmen
1.091 WHIP

That was another foreign 26 year old's line in his first season in Boston. He ended up finishing the season as an all-star, the runner-up for the Cy Young and even got a handful of MVP votes. And I don't think Daisuke could be any better than that.

So I want another Pedro Martinez. Can you blame me?