2004 vs. 2007: Compare and Contrast

With the trading deadline looming, there's lots of talk surrounding the key deals Theo pulled off in 2004 that shook the Sox out of their malaise and propelled them to the promised land. This has led to the inevitable comparison of that 2004 team with the present 2007 edition of the Sox.

Even Mike Timlin weighed in recently, saying "we have a good team. If I'm trying to compare 2004 and 2007, yeah it's comparable."

So as we head into the last two months of the season, let's take a look at the current team and how it compares to the greatest Sox team since 1918.


When grinding down into the statistics, the similarities between the two teams is uncanny. The 2004 team finished 98-64, scored 949 runs and allowed 768 for a run differential of 181. This year's edition projects to 99-65 with 830 runs and 635 allowed for a RD of 195.

Team batting averages are almost identical with .282 in 2004 and 2.77 this year. On base percentage is .360 v .358 in favor of 2004 which also had a slugging percentage advantage of .472 v .439. The World Champs were more powerful banging out 222 homers vs. the projected 162 for 2007. Walks are almost identical at 659 v a projected 677. 2004 also has the edge in extra base hits at 620-projected 534.

I think it would be safe to say the Champs were a stronger hitting team over all.

Pitching is another story.

The Champs ERA was 4.18, but this year's crew is a half run better at 3.69. This year they project to allow 17% fewer runs (635-768), 6% fewer hits (1349-1430) and 18% fewer homer runs (159-131). Strikeouts project to be nearly even at 1132-1130 in favor of 2004.

Let's take a look position by position.

First Base: Kevin Millar vs Kevin Youkilis. Millar hit .297 with 18 homers and an OBP of .383, slugging percentage of .474 and 74 RBI. Youk is hitting .306, projects to 16 homers with an OBP of .402, slugging percent of .468 and 80 RBI. Doug Mientkiewicz was brought in to play late inning defense and I would argue that he was no better than Youk has been with the club. Advantage: Even.

Second Base: Mark Bellhorn vs. Dustin Pedroia. Bellhorn posted a .264 average, 17 homers, OBP of .373 and slugging pct of 444. Pedroia is at .315, projects to 6 homers, OBP of .389 and slugging pct of .315. Pedroia is much better with glove than Bellhorn who was reliable but not spectacular. Advantage : 2007.

Shortstop: Orlando Cabrera/Pokey Reese vs Julio Lugo. Cabrera/Reese hit .256 with 9 homers, OBP of .296 and 60 RBI. Lugo is struggling at .222, projects to 9 homers, OBP of .287 and 74 RBI. Cabrera made some spectacular plays in the field but Lugo has been solid as well. Lugo also offers more speed on the bases, when he's not getting picked off. The Champs have to be given the advantage here, but it is not as easy a call as you would have expected given Lugo's problems. If he continues his hot streak for the rest of the second half, Lugo could get this checkmark into the 2007 column by season's end. Advantage: 2004

Third Base: Bill Mueller vs Mike Lowell. Great matchup here with the Pro v the Pro. Mueller posted a .283 average, 12 homers, 57 RBI .365 OBP, and .446 Slugging. Lowell is at .306, projects to 24 homers and 115 RBI, .357 OBP and .506 slugging. Even though he is having a down year defensively, he is ultimately a better field than Mueller was. Advantage: 2007.

Left Field: Manny vs Manny. The Champ Manny had a monster year posting .308 BA, 43 homers, 130 RBI, .397 OBP and .613 slugging. This year's version of Manny still has the average at .306, but he projects to 27 homers and 101 RBI. His current OBP is .404 and slugging is 100 points off at .519. The fielding and baserunning and intangibles are still an adventure. Advantage: 2004.

Center Field: Johnny Damon vs. Coco Crisp. The Caveman was the toast of the town in 2004 with good reason. He hit .304 with 20 homers and 94 RBI's. His OBP was .380 and he slugged .477. Crisp has come on lately and has raised his average to .282. He projects to 8 homers and 64 RBI. His OBP is .335 and is slugging .410. Defensively, Coco is several notches above Damon although they both have popgun arms. Coco has become a solid player, but he has not approached Damon's ability to work the pitcher and create havoc at the top of the order. On the intangible scale, Damon was off the charts, willing to take the pressure off his teammates by facing the press every night. Coco, meanwhile, dresses in the hallway to avoid the media horde. Advantage: 2004.

Right Field: Trot Nixon/Gabe Kapler vs JD Drew. People forget that Nixon played only 48 games in '04 while the classy Kapler did most of the heavy lifting in right field. The two combined for a .287 average, 12 homers and 56 RBI. The duo had an OBP of .344 and a slugging pct of .450. Drew has been a disappointment with his .247 average and projected 9 homers and 61 RBI. His OBP is .356 and is slugging .375. Defensively, Drew is better than both Kapler and Nixon but not enough to make up the gap in hitting from Nixon/Kapler. Advantage: 2004.

Catcher: Tek vs. Tek. Varitek had a career year in his contract season in 2004, hitting .296 with 18 homers and 73 RBI. His OBP was an impressive .390 and a solid slugging pct of .482. He has rebounded nicely from last season this year, hitting a nice .268 and projects to 14 homers and 68 RBI. He has a respectable .357 OBP and is slugging .421. His ability to handle the pitching staff is as good or better than it was three years ago, but there is no question he has not reached the same offensive prowess. Advantage: 2004

DH: Big Papi vs. Big Papi. The Champ Ortiz also had an eye-popping season hitting .301 with 41 homers and 139 RBI. He posted a .380 OBP and a lofty .603 slugging pct. This year, Papi has been banged up and his power shortage has been well documented. He has raised his average to .320 but he projects to only 25 homers and 94 RBI. His OBP is up at .433 but his slugging is off about 50 points to .554. There has also been a dearth of dramatic late inning heroics from the big guy which when you really think of it, couldn't go on forever. But the lack of power can't be ignored. Advantage: 2004.

Bench: Mientkiewicz, Pokie Reese, Dave Roberts, Mirabelli vs. Cora, Wily Mo Pena , Eric Hinske and Mirabelli. Mientkievicz (.238) was really only a defensive replacement and Reese (.221) and Roberts (.256) didn't make much of an impact in the regular season. Mirabelli actually contributed in 2004 hitting .281 in 160 plate appearances, with 9 homers and 32 RBI. This year, Belli has been awful, hitting .185 and projecting to 5 home runs and 17 RBI. Pena is useless, but Cora (.262) is probably the most valuable utility man in baseball. Hinske (.205) is a lefthanded bat with flashes of brilliance only. Advantage: Even.

Starting Pitching: Schilling, Pedro, Lowe, Wakefield, Arroyo v. Beckett, Matsusaka, Schilling, Wakefield, Tavarez. Pedro (16-9, 3.90, 227K's) and Schilling (21-6, 3.26, 203K's) led the Champs' staff, but people forget that Lowe was awful during the regular season, posting a 14-12 mark with an ERA of 5.42 that should have had him sending valentines to the Sox offense. Wakefield (12-10, 4.87) and Bronson Arroyo (10-9, 4.03) were .500 pitchers as the two horses carried the staff. Beckett has rebounded form a so-so year last season to anchor this year's staff. He projects to 20-6, 3.27, 184K's. Dice-K has been getting better all the time and projects to 19-11, 3.79, 214K's. This year's duo looks to be a step above the two aces in 2004. Schilling/Gabbard project to 16-6, .397, 157 K's. That is a big step up from Lowe's 2004 numbers. Wakefield has already equalled his 2004 record with a slightly better ERA. He projects to 19-14 if he keeps getting a decision in every game. Tavarez first half projects to 9-13 which is below Arroyo's performance. With Lester or Gabbard stepping in for the last two months, you have to think those numbers will improve. Advantage: 2007

Middle Relief: Curtis Leskanic, Mike Myers, Scott Williamson vs. Snyder, Pineiro, Lopez. Myers (5-1, 4.64, 32K) was a great situational lefty but Lopez (3.18 ERA) can do more. Snyder (2.95) has been great in long relief. Piniero (5.03) was a $4 mil bust, but was still better than Leskanic (5.19). Williamson was very effective with a 1.26 ERA but could not stay healthy. Advantage: 2007.

Set Up: Alan Embree and Mike Timlin vs. Okajima, Delcarmen and Timlin. Embree (4.13) and Timlin (4.13) were solid in 2004 but no match for this year's group. Okajima (0.89) has been unhittable allowing 5 runs all year. Delcarmen (1.40) looks like the power right hander the Sox have been looking for. This year's Timlin may be 41, but his 3.31 ERA is almost a run better than 2004 albeit with a lighter workload. Advantage: 2007.

Closer: Keith Foulke vs Jonathan Papelbon. Despite the fact that Foulke was the proverbial turd in the punch bowl as far as his personality was concerned, you have to give him his due on the mound. Simply put, the Sox would not have won it all without him closing out games. No one ever figured out how a closer could succeed with a change up as his out pitch, but he did it. He had a sparkling 2.17 ERA with 32 saves and struck out 79 in 72 innings while walking only 15. Paps is more likable and more traditional, coming out of the bullpen breathing fire with a smoking fast ball to match. He has a stingy 1.72 ERA and projects to 36 saves, and 93K's in 56 innings with 17 walks. As much as you want to give this checkmark to Paps, you have to face facts. Although Foulke delivered the Sox a ring you would have to ask a Bill Simmons-like question: If terrorists had your loved ones tied up in a basement and would kill them based on whether or not the game could be saved in the ninth, which one would you want on the mound?
Using that scenario, the decision is easy. Thank God that game wasn't last night, however. Advantage: 2007.

Manager: Tito vs Tito. This is a no brainer. Francona guided the Sox to their first championship in 86 years as a first year skipper. Now in his fourth year, Tito is turning into the best manager the Sox have had in my memory. Everyone points to Dick Williams in '67, but he never won it all, and he, like Billy Martin, had a short shelf life. He could command like a dictator but the troops would tune him out after a while. He only lasted two and a half years. I would take Tito after every other manager since then. He is a great combination of a manager who knows how to handle people. (Despite the fact that the blood thirsty media and shut in talk show callers want him to come out and rip players when they screw up, any good manager in business or otherwise knows that is not the way to get top performance from those who work for you). He has also shown the ability to use the massive amount of information available to him to make calls based on facts rather than gut. He may stay with players too long, but he is getting better in that regard and he has proven to be correct more often than not. The best testimony is that he is now in his fourth season, presided over a dissapointing '05 playoff loss, a second half '06 debacle and a month long swoon this season and there have been no calls for his head. That's because he has gone from being a good manager in '04 to an outstanding one this year. Advantage: 2007.

So to summarize, the '07 season wins the head to head by a checkmark count of 7-6-2, mostly on the strength of the pitching. If Manny and Papi were having "normal" years for them, it would have been a landslide 9-4-2 win for this year's club. If Drew and Lugo can get hot in the final two months, if Lowell and Youk hold up instead of fading as they have in the past, if Lester can top Tavarez's first half and Schilling can come back to anything close to his 2004 version, this year's team can clearly be better than 2004.

The question that remains is do they have the heart of the 2004 team. Do you see this year's team coming from a 0-3 deficit to win a series? They have not shown the ability to come back in mid season games. How are they going to react to the pressure of the pennant race and (hopefully), playoffs?

The 2004 team showed they could do it on the big stage when it mattered. Can this 2007 team do the same? We'll have to wait and see.