Half way home

Here's the short and dirty version: 53-34 (.609) with a 10-game lead in the American League East.

Any evaluation of this team at the midway mark has to start and end with these numbers, which are the only ones that make any difference in the end.


For all the flaws this team has exhibited in the last month, they still possess the best winning percentage in Major League Baseball, and that surely means a lot more things are being done right than wrong on Yawkey Way. Keeping the status quo as we approach the trade deadline, however, tends to be a losing proposal to teams looking to make a serious playoff run. So before the trade talks heat up to match the weather, here are five predictions I have for moves that should or should not be executed before we're through with July.

1. Julio Lugo isn't going anywhere. Our current shortstop is cruising just below the Mendoza line as he takes his well-earned three day midsummer vacation, and armchair general managers have been floating speculative trades since the beginning of May. In reality, however, Lugo is a player this front office has wanted for a long time, and I have no doubt that he will spend the entirety of his current four-year contract in Boston. Some players are able to quickly adjust to playing in the Hub (Mike Lowell, Curt Schilling, Kevin Millar, David Ortiz) and others can take up to a year to really settle in (Josh Beckett, Johnny Damon, Coco Crisp if his current streak is the real deal). Lugo appears to fall into the latter category. Everyone has said this is a guy who will thrive in such a baseball hotbed, and it appears to me that he's twisting himself up in knots as a result of his failures to date. Once he settles in, I have no doubt he'll have a torrid four weeks or so and end the season with respectable if not outstanding numbers, and next year we can expect to see the player we thought we signed last winter.

2. We should see if anyone is interested in Coco Crisp. The flip side of Mr. Lugo is Mr. Crisp. I was a little confused when we aquired Coco on his current deal as he was clearly blocking top Sox prospect Jacoby Ellsbury from picking up playing time on the big club. At the time, I guessed that the club was planning on dealing Crisp when Ellsbury was ready, as Crisp's contract is quite manageable and he'd be a major upgrade in center field for a lot of clubs. Unfortunately, Crisp has had no trade value since the moment he signed his contract...until now. Crisp's current hot streak could very well be the real deal; on the other hand, it could be another illusion. If Theo can find another GM who thinks this is what Coco will bring to the table for the next two years, he should pick up as much as he can and plug Jacoby into the center of the Fenway outfield; if nobody is interested, we can drop Ellsbury back down to Pawtucket, ride out Coco for the rest of the 2007 campaign, and focus on moving him and clearing the way for Jacoby in November.

3. Find another starter. With Mark Buehrle signing a four-year deal with the ChiSox, there doesn't appear to be many available top-of-the-rotation starters on the trading block, but there is a lot of baseball left to be played before the trading deadline hits. Right now, we have two guys in the rotation who are really long-relief/spot-starters (Tavarez and Gabbard); one has been holding down the fort all season, and the other appears to be locked in until Schilling finally pulls himself together. I'm not going to be holding my breath waiting for Schill's return, and I'd much rather not have to watch these guys pitch on back-to-back days anymore. If Theo can make any magic happen here for a #3 type starter without mortgaging the farm, he'll be a hero. Could it be Jeff Suppan 2.0? Of course - but it really couldn't be much worse than that, could it?

4. Keep the young guns in Portland and Pawtucket. Although I don't want Gabbard and Tavarez anchoring the rotation any longer than they absolutely have to, I want even less to see Lester, Buchholz, or Bowden rushed to the big club to provide a quick fix. These guys are the future, and the way to best prepare them for the playoff marches of the next decade is to let them continue to grow in the minor leagues. We have a ten game cushion right now - there's no need to put any of these guys in a "sink or swim" environment.

5. Call up the Yankees and offer to take Roger Clemens' bloated contract off their floundering roster, as the Pinstripes are shaping up to be sellers at the deadline. Just kidding.