Kevin plays GM

Tomorrow is Trade Deadline Day, and you know what that means: lots of speculation and little action. To aid in the public discourse, I'll throw another chunk of speculation out there and run through the move I'd be looking to make if I was in Theo's chair.

Speculation is running rampant around the league that Mark Teixeira will be moved before four o'clock, and many clubs have thrown their hat in the ring. The Sox would surely be improved by adding his bat, but the cost it will take to aquire him is has probably risen above what his added value to the team would be. This does not mean, however, that we shouldn't still be working the phones to become involved as a part of a larger deal.

The best offer I have seen thus far comes from Atlanta, where the Braves are offering pitcher Matt Harrison (age 21), shortstop Elvis Andrus (age 18), and catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia (age 22) for Teixeira's services. As Red Sox GM, the most appealing name to me in that deal is not Teixeira's, but Saltalamacchia's: in an era where productive catchers are dying out like the dinosaurs, Saltalamacchia could potentially be the man to succeed Jason Varitek in Boston. Perhaps if we put a phone call in to Texas and placed a preliminary offer on Salty's head, it would inspire them to close the deal with the Braves.

Using Baseball Prospectus' WARP statistic (Wins Above Replacement Level), the Texas-Atlanta deal as currently constructed would yield Atlanta approximately 3 additional wins down the home stretch of this season (Teix=35.4, Salty=22.7, Harrison=7.9, Andrus=1.8). Projecting over the next five seasons, the deal would be just about even (Atlanta would come out about a game and a half ahead over the course of eight hundred games), but after that season Teix would be 32 and the Texas prospects would be 27, 26, and 23. It is always risky when you trade a star just entering his prime, but any drop-off from Teixeira or sharp rise from any of the prospects would make this deal a slam dunk.

So where do the Sox fit in? Texas doesn't seem to be too enamored with Saltalamacchia, who is the keystone of the Atlanta package. The Rangers are supposedly much more interested in young pitching. They are also trotting out the corpse of Sammy Sosa (now with less cork!) as a designated hitter. They obviously aren't planning on contending this year, and therefore should be willing to part with older players on the payroll.

Maybe we could help out.

Jon Lester has had an amazing struggle to make his way back to the big leagues, and he sure looks like someone who could be a top-flight pitcher for years to come. On the other hand, he regularly has problems hitting the strike zone and his value may be higher right now than it will ever be again. It would be the unsentimental move to part with him right as he's reached the top of the mountain, but we here in the front offices are in the business of winning baseball games.

Additionally, my previous post detailed the issues that surround Sox slugger Wily Mo Pena. Although one night shouldn't override the abomination that has been the rest of this season, perhaps we can catch lightning in a bottle and sell Wily Mo's potential, just as it was sold to us last spring.

The other element of this deal would be recently injured Rangers reliever Akinori Otsuka. The Rangers had been shopping this guy agressively before his injury, but now the price has probably dropped precipitously. He's currently on the 15-day DL and he is 35 years old; he has no use to Texas at this point. If the Sox could land him now and let him heal up through August, he would be a huge boost to the bullpen in the playoffs - let's not forget he picked up 32 saves as a closer last year. Should he be able to return to health in the next month, the Sox could carry a bullpen of Papelbon - Okajima - Otsuka - Delcarmen - Lopez - Timlin - Tavarez/Gabbard/Lester/Snyder into the postseason. And that would be pretty good, for those of you scoring at home.

So we offer Texas Jon Lester (age 23, five-year WARP=61.9), Wily Mo Pena (25, 75.8), and a throw-in pitcihng prospect (for this example I'll use David Pauley, because I know his WARP=14.8) in exchange for the recently aquired Saltalamacchia and the injured Otsuka. Over the next five seasons, the Rangers could expect to add about ten more wins from this transaction, in addition to immediately adding a young left-handed starter and Sosa's full-time replacement at DH.

At the end of the day, Texas will have dealt Teixeira and Otsuka for a major-league ready starting pitcher (Lester), a major-league hitter (Pena), two pitching prospects (Harrison and Pauley) and a young shortstop (Andrus). That's not a bad haul for a star and a rapidly-aging setup man.

The Sox, for their labors, would add a reliever who will directly impact the ballclub's playoff chances (we would at this point have four closers in the bullpen) in addition to adding the heir to Varitek's throne who is a switch-hitter and can man first base in a pinch. He would take Pena's spot on the roster and we could still keep Mirabelli around to caddy for Wake, though maybe Salty could take some bullpen sessions and see how the knuckler treats him while looking towards the future.

Good pitching beats good hitting and good catchers are hard to find. Jon Lester will always be a fan favorite in this town, but this bounty is just too much for the Sox to turn down.