Kevin plays GM

Tomorrow is Trade Deadline Day, and you know what that means: lots of speculation and little action. To aid in the public discourse, I'll throw another chunk of speculation out there and run through the move I'd be looking to make if I was in Theo's chair.

Speculation is running rampant around the league that Mark Teixeira will be moved before four o'clock, and many clubs have thrown their hat in the ring. The Sox would surely be improved by adding his bat, but the cost it will take to aquire him is has probably risen above what his added value to the team would be. This does not mean, however, that we shouldn't still be working the phones to become involved as a part of a larger deal.

The best offer I have seen thus far comes from Atlanta, where the Braves are offering pitcher Matt Harrison (age 21), shortstop Elvis Andrus (age 18), and catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia (age 22) for Teixeira's services. As Red Sox GM, the most appealing name to me in that deal is not Teixeira's, but Saltalamacchia's: in an era where productive catchers are dying out like the dinosaurs, Saltalamacchia could potentially be the man to succeed Jason Varitek in Boston. Perhaps if we put a phone call in to Texas and placed a preliminary offer on Salty's head, it would inspire them to close the deal with the Braves.

Using Baseball Prospectus' WARP statistic (Wins Above Replacement Level), the Texas-Atlanta deal as currently constructed would yield Atlanta approximately 3 additional wins down the home stretch of this season (Teix=35.4, Salty=22.7, Harrison=7.9, Andrus=1.8). Projecting over the next five seasons, the deal would be just about even (Atlanta would come out about a game and a half ahead over the course of eight hundred games), but after that season Teix would be 32 and the Texas prospects would be 27, 26, and 23. It is always risky when you trade a star just entering his prime, but any drop-off from Teixeira or sharp rise from any of the prospects would make this deal a slam dunk.

So where do the Sox fit in? Texas doesn't seem to be too enamored with Saltalamacchia, who is the keystone of the Atlanta package. The Rangers are supposedly much more interested in young pitching. They are also trotting out the corpse of Sammy Sosa (now with less cork!) as a designated hitter. They obviously aren't planning on contending this year, and therefore should be willing to part with older players on the payroll.

Maybe we could help out.

Jon Lester has had an amazing struggle to make his way back to the big leagues, and he sure looks like someone who could be a top-flight pitcher for years to come. On the other hand, he regularly has problems hitting the strike zone and his value may be higher right now than it will ever be again. It would be the unsentimental move to part with him right as he's reached the top of the mountain, but we here in the front offices are in the business of winning baseball games.

Additionally, my previous post detailed the issues that surround Sox slugger Wily Mo Pena. Although one night shouldn't override the abomination that has been the rest of this season, perhaps we can catch lightning in a bottle and sell Wily Mo's potential, just as it was sold to us last spring.

The other element of this deal would be recently injured Rangers reliever Akinori Otsuka. The Rangers had been shopping this guy agressively before his injury, but now the price has probably dropped precipitously. He's currently on the 15-day DL and he is 35 years old; he has no use to Texas at this point. If the Sox could land him now and let him heal up through August, he would be a huge boost to the bullpen in the playoffs - let's not forget he picked up 32 saves as a closer last year. Should he be able to return to health in the next month, the Sox could carry a bullpen of Papelbon - Okajima - Otsuka - Delcarmen - Lopez - Timlin - Tavarez/Gabbard/Lester/Snyder into the postseason. And that would be pretty good, for those of you scoring at home.

So we offer Texas Jon Lester (age 23, five-year WARP=61.9), Wily Mo Pena (25, 75.8), and a throw-in pitcihng prospect (for this example I'll use David Pauley, because I know his WARP=14.8) in exchange for the recently aquired Saltalamacchia and the injured Otsuka. Over the next five seasons, the Rangers could expect to add about ten more wins from this transaction, in addition to immediately adding a young left-handed starter and Sosa's full-time replacement at DH.

At the end of the day, Texas will have dealt Teixeira and Otsuka for a major-league ready starting pitcher (Lester), a major-league hitter (Pena), two pitching prospects (Harrison and Pauley) and a young shortstop (Andrus). That's not a bad haul for a star and a rapidly-aging setup man.

The Sox, for their labors, would add a reliever who will directly impact the ballclub's playoff chances (we would at this point have four closers in the bullpen) in addition to adding the heir to Varitek's throne who is a switch-hitter and can man first base in a pinch. He would take Pena's spot on the roster and we could still keep Mirabelli around to caddy for Wake, though maybe Salty could take some bullpen sessions and see how the knuckler treats him while looking towards the future.

Good pitching beats good hitting and good catchers are hard to find. Jon Lester will always be a fan favorite in this town, but this bounty is just too much for the Sox to turn down.

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2004 vs. 2007: Compare and Contrast

With the trading deadline looming, there's lots of talk surrounding the key deals Theo pulled off in 2004 that shook the Sox out of their malaise and propelled them to the promised land. This has led to the inevitable comparison of that 2004 team with the present 2007 edition of the Sox.

Even Mike Timlin weighed in recently, saying "we have a good team. If I'm trying to compare 2004 and 2007, yeah it's comparable."

So as we head into the last two months of the season, let's take a look at the current team and how it compares to the greatest Sox team since 1918.


When grinding down into the statistics, the similarities between the two teams is uncanny. The 2004 team finished 98-64, scored 949 runs and allowed 768 for a run differential of 181. This year's edition projects to 99-65 with 830 runs and 635 allowed for a RD of 195.

Team batting averages are almost identical with .282 in 2004 and 2.77 this year. On base percentage is .360 v .358 in favor of 2004 which also had a slugging percentage advantage of .472 v .439. The World Champs were more powerful banging out 222 homers vs. the projected 162 for 2007. Walks are almost identical at 659 v a projected 677. 2004 also has the edge in extra base hits at 620-projected 534.

I think it would be safe to say the Champs were a stronger hitting team over all.

Pitching is another story.

The Champs ERA was 4.18, but this year's crew is a half run better at 3.69. This year they project to allow 17% fewer runs (635-768), 6% fewer hits (1349-1430) and 18% fewer homer runs (159-131). Strikeouts project to be nearly even at 1132-1130 in favor of 2004.

Let's take a look position by position.

First Base: Kevin Millar vs Kevin Youkilis. Millar hit .297 with 18 homers and an OBP of .383, slugging percentage of .474 and 74 RBI. Youk is hitting .306, projects to 16 homers with an OBP of .402, slugging percent of .468 and 80 RBI. Doug Mientkiewicz was brought in to play late inning defense and I would argue that he was no better than Youk has been with the club. Advantage: Even.

Second Base: Mark Bellhorn vs. Dustin Pedroia. Bellhorn posted a .264 average, 17 homers, OBP of .373 and slugging pct of 444. Pedroia is at .315, projects to 6 homers, OBP of .389 and slugging pct of .315. Pedroia is much better with glove than Bellhorn who was reliable but not spectacular. Advantage : 2007.

Shortstop: Orlando Cabrera/Pokey Reese vs Julio Lugo. Cabrera/Reese hit .256 with 9 homers, OBP of .296 and 60 RBI. Lugo is struggling at .222, projects to 9 homers, OBP of .287 and 74 RBI. Cabrera made some spectacular plays in the field but Lugo has been solid as well. Lugo also offers more speed on the bases, when he's not getting picked off. The Champs have to be given the advantage here, but it is not as easy a call as you would have expected given Lugo's problems. If he continues his hot streak for the rest of the second half, Lugo could get this checkmark into the 2007 column by season's end. Advantage: 2004

Third Base: Bill Mueller vs Mike Lowell. Great matchup here with the Pro v the Pro. Mueller posted a .283 average, 12 homers, 57 RBI .365 OBP, and .446 Slugging. Lowell is at .306, projects to 24 homers and 115 RBI, .357 OBP and .506 slugging. Even though he is having a down year defensively, he is ultimately a better field than Mueller was. Advantage: 2007.

Left Field: Manny vs Manny. The Champ Manny had a monster year posting .308 BA, 43 homers, 130 RBI, .397 OBP and .613 slugging. This year's version of Manny still has the average at .306, but he projects to 27 homers and 101 RBI. His current OBP is .404 and slugging is 100 points off at .519. The fielding and baserunning and intangibles are still an adventure. Advantage: 2004.

Center Field: Johnny Damon vs. Coco Crisp. The Caveman was the toast of the town in 2004 with good reason. He hit .304 with 20 homers and 94 RBI's. His OBP was .380 and he slugged .477. Crisp has come on lately and has raised his average to .282. He projects to 8 homers and 64 RBI. His OBP is .335 and is slugging .410. Defensively, Coco is several notches above Damon although they both have popgun arms. Coco has become a solid player, but he has not approached Damon's ability to work the pitcher and create havoc at the top of the order. On the intangible scale, Damon was off the charts, willing to take the pressure off his teammates by facing the press every night. Coco, meanwhile, dresses in the hallway to avoid the media horde. Advantage: 2004.

Right Field: Trot Nixon/Gabe Kapler vs JD Drew. People forget that Nixon played only 48 games in '04 while the classy Kapler did most of the heavy lifting in right field. The two combined for a .287 average, 12 homers and 56 RBI. The duo had an OBP of .344 and a slugging pct of .450. Drew has been a disappointment with his .247 average and projected 9 homers and 61 RBI. His OBP is .356 and is slugging .375. Defensively, Drew is better than both Kapler and Nixon but not enough to make up the gap in hitting from Nixon/Kapler. Advantage: 2004.

Catcher: Tek vs. Tek. Varitek had a career year in his contract season in 2004, hitting .296 with 18 homers and 73 RBI. His OBP was an impressive .390 and a solid slugging pct of .482. He has rebounded nicely from last season this year, hitting a nice .268 and projects to 14 homers and 68 RBI. He has a respectable .357 OBP and is slugging .421. His ability to handle the pitching staff is as good or better than it was three years ago, but there is no question he has not reached the same offensive prowess. Advantage: 2004

DH: Big Papi vs. Big Papi. The Champ Ortiz also had an eye-popping season hitting .301 with 41 homers and 139 RBI. He posted a .380 OBP and a lofty .603 slugging pct. This year, Papi has been banged up and his power shortage has been well documented. He has raised his average to .320 but he projects to only 25 homers and 94 RBI. His OBP is up at .433 but his slugging is off about 50 points to .554. There has also been a dearth of dramatic late inning heroics from the big guy which when you really think of it, couldn't go on forever. But the lack of power can't be ignored. Advantage: 2004.

Bench: Mientkiewicz, Pokie Reese, Dave Roberts, Mirabelli vs. Cora, Wily Mo Pena , Eric Hinske and Mirabelli. Mientkievicz (.238) was really only a defensive replacement and Reese (.221) and Roberts (.256) didn't make much of an impact in the regular season. Mirabelli actually contributed in 2004 hitting .281 in 160 plate appearances, with 9 homers and 32 RBI. This year, Belli has been awful, hitting .185 and projecting to 5 home runs and 17 RBI. Pena is useless, but Cora (.262) is probably the most valuable utility man in baseball. Hinske (.205) is a lefthanded bat with flashes of brilliance only. Advantage: Even.

Starting Pitching: Schilling, Pedro, Lowe, Wakefield, Arroyo v. Beckett, Matsusaka, Schilling, Wakefield, Tavarez. Pedro (16-9, 3.90, 227K's) and Schilling (21-6, 3.26, 203K's) led the Champs' staff, but people forget that Lowe was awful during the regular season, posting a 14-12 mark with an ERA of 5.42 that should have had him sending valentines to the Sox offense. Wakefield (12-10, 4.87) and Bronson Arroyo (10-9, 4.03) were .500 pitchers as the two horses carried the staff. Beckett has rebounded form a so-so year last season to anchor this year's staff. He projects to 20-6, 3.27, 184K's. Dice-K has been getting better all the time and projects to 19-11, 3.79, 214K's. This year's duo looks to be a step above the two aces in 2004. Schilling/Gabbard project to 16-6, .397, 157 K's. That is a big step up from Lowe's 2004 numbers. Wakefield has already equalled his 2004 record with a slightly better ERA. He projects to 19-14 if he keeps getting a decision in every game. Tavarez first half projects to 9-13 which is below Arroyo's performance. With Lester or Gabbard stepping in for the last two months, you have to think those numbers will improve. Advantage: 2007

Middle Relief: Curtis Leskanic, Mike Myers, Scott Williamson vs. Snyder, Pineiro, Lopez. Myers (5-1, 4.64, 32K) was a great situational lefty but Lopez (3.18 ERA) can do more. Snyder (2.95) has been great in long relief. Piniero (5.03) was a $4 mil bust, but was still better than Leskanic (5.19). Williamson was very effective with a 1.26 ERA but could not stay healthy. Advantage: 2007.

Set Up: Alan Embree and Mike Timlin vs. Okajima, Delcarmen and Timlin. Embree (4.13) and Timlin (4.13) were solid in 2004 but no match for this year's group. Okajima (0.89) has been unhittable allowing 5 runs all year. Delcarmen (1.40) looks like the power right hander the Sox have been looking for. This year's Timlin may be 41, but his 3.31 ERA is almost a run better than 2004 albeit with a lighter workload. Advantage: 2007.

Closer: Keith Foulke vs Jonathan Papelbon. Despite the fact that Foulke was the proverbial turd in the punch bowl as far as his personality was concerned, you have to give him his due on the mound. Simply put, the Sox would not have won it all without him closing out games. No one ever figured out how a closer could succeed with a change up as his out pitch, but he did it. He had a sparkling 2.17 ERA with 32 saves and struck out 79 in 72 innings while walking only 15. Paps is more likable and more traditional, coming out of the bullpen breathing fire with a smoking fast ball to match. He has a stingy 1.72 ERA and projects to 36 saves, and 93K's in 56 innings with 17 walks. As much as you want to give this checkmark to Paps, you have to face facts. Although Foulke delivered the Sox a ring you would have to ask a Bill Simmons-like question: If terrorists had your loved ones tied up in a basement and would kill them based on whether or not the game could be saved in the ninth, which one would you want on the mound?
Using that scenario, the decision is easy. Thank God that game wasn't last night, however. Advantage: 2007.

Manager: Tito vs Tito. This is a no brainer. Francona guided the Sox to their first championship in 86 years as a first year skipper. Now in his fourth year, Tito is turning into the best manager the Sox have had in my memory. Everyone points to Dick Williams in '67, but he never won it all, and he, like Billy Martin, had a short shelf life. He could command like a dictator but the troops would tune him out after a while. He only lasted two and a half years. I would take Tito after every other manager since then. He is a great combination of a manager who knows how to handle people. (Despite the fact that the blood thirsty media and shut in talk show callers want him to come out and rip players when they screw up, any good manager in business or otherwise knows that is not the way to get top performance from those who work for you). He has also shown the ability to use the massive amount of information available to him to make calls based on facts rather than gut. He may stay with players too long, but he is getting better in that regard and he has proven to be correct more often than not. The best testimony is that he is now in his fourth season, presided over a dissapointing '05 playoff loss, a second half '06 debacle and a month long swoon this season and there have been no calls for his head. That's because he has gone from being a good manager in '04 to an outstanding one this year. Advantage: 2007.

So to summarize, the '07 season wins the head to head by a checkmark count of 7-6-2, mostly on the strength of the pitching. If Manny and Papi were having "normal" years for them, it would have been a landslide 9-4-2 win for this year's club. If Drew and Lugo can get hot in the final two months, if Lowell and Youk hold up instead of fading as they have in the past, if Lester can top Tavarez's first half and Schilling can come back to anything close to his 2004 version, this year's team can clearly be better than 2004.

The question that remains is do they have the heart of the 2004 team. Do you see this year's team coming from a 0-3 deficit to win a series? They have not shown the ability to come back in mid season games. How are they going to react to the pressure of the pennant race and (hopefully), playoffs?

The 2004 team showed they could do it on the big stage when it mattered. Can this 2007 team do the same? We'll have to wait and see.

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The deadline approaches

With the trade deadline looming, it is critical to accurately assess both at what level a team will need to perform to succeed and also what pieces can be added to reach that level.

Let's assume a team can succeed with a batting average around .290, OBP at about .367, slugging near .450, and score about 5.25 runs a game. We also need a pitching staff that can maintain an ERA around 3.5, strike out about 7 batters per every 9 innings, and hold opposing batters to approximately a .240 average. Does this sound like a winner to you?

Because some would refer to such a club as a "monstrosity," a "mess," a "quagmire," and a "disaster" of which the designer "will have to live and die with."

I think he'll be alright. His club has put up those numbers so far in July alone.

We all know the baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint. A team is going to drop a series to a lousy Kansas City team every now and again, but they are just as likely to turn around and take 3 of 4 from a red-hot Cleveland club. This team is not perfect, but they are the holders of the best record in baseball right now and have been assembled to succeed in the postseason. Sure, we're not setting the world on fire and blowing teams away like the Bronx Bombers love to do, but I'm pretty sure a one-run victory counts as much in the end as a 22-3 blowout. I seem to recall the Patriots doing fairly well in adhering to this philosophy.

Now, just because the team is good doesn't mean it can't get better. What it does mean is that we don't need to blow anything up right now. As far as "quagmires...that can not easily be cleaned up" go, I think this one is looking pretty good.

The most glaring deficiency in the 25-man roster isn't so much a hole as it is Wily Mo Pena. He is simply the wrong man in the wrong place at the wrong time. It is obvious Dr. Wily needs playing time to succeed - but we're ignoring the fact that this guy will never turn into a Moneyball-era Sox player. I think Wily Mo could get 900 plate appearances next season and still be incapable of putting together the long, grinding, pitch-consuming at-bats that come so naturally to Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia.

Pena is the kind of guy that would have been a folk hero in 1952, when everybody hit home runs and walking was for little girls. He could have even had a charming off-season job, like digging holes or mining cole, that would have added to his larger-than-life mystique and perhaps given him a clever nickname.

In 2007, however, he sucks and everyone knows it. This is why it will be impossible for Theo to move him. The guy has a ton of upside and I really don't think you can even now complain about the trade that brought him here (even Tom liked it at the time), but he simply hasn't worked out and now we're stuck with him. He'd be a great fit in the National League, where the pitchers have apparently not yet been told that a thrown baseball can be made to curve if you throw it in a certain way. If Theo can get anything useful for Pena, you kind of have to take it just to free up the roster spot and bring up one of our AAA guys who can run, play defense, and at least look good while missing curveballs. Pena can do none of these things.

So what type of realistic return can we expect to get from Pena? We probably aren't going to be able to aquire a right-handed outfielder/pinch hitter for him, because that's what he is currently unable to do so why would anyone want to swap someone who can do these things for someone who can't? Perhaps we could grab a reliever, but at this point the best we could probably get is someone like Solomon Torres from the Pirates, who is 150 years old and would sit just below Mike "12 more appearances to 1,000" Timlin on the bullpen totem pole.

Pena's value, despite his great night tonight, could not be lower. Not only does everyone else not want him, they know we don't want him. At this point, we'll probably only be able to move him as a throw-in to a larger deal. If Theo can get anything for this hulking mass of raw potential, he deserves a ticker-tape parade.

That is, if he's not "dead" from the 62-40 "disaster" he has created.

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Far too often...

A Stand Must Be Made!




Too many times in the history of the Monster, players like JD Drew, who have great talent, are robbed of home runs due to slacking umpiring crews, as well as the dreaded shelf. So i designed a few ideas that might possibly end this horrible hassle which has pestered us for so many years.



This is the mouse trap design. Self explanatory, ball hits, they all go off, we clearly know the ball hits the shelf.

Pros: Its obvious that ball hits shelf. Left fielder is showered with snapping traps. Stadium laughs at left fielder.
Cons: Front row in great danger. Might be a hassle to clean up. Mice might frequent the shelf.



This is the Nail design. All nails are put in upside down with razor sharp tops. Ball comes hurtling down and plain sticks to the nails. Ball goes no where and we know its a homerun.

Pros: Perfect solution, no confusion.
Cons: Many hands could be lost trying to retrieve the stuck ball. Rain could possible rust nails making Fenway look less presentable.



This is the Moat design. With a 3 foot hollow tank put into the top of the monster, it would be filled with water. When ever a ball hits, a big splash would ensue, and we know its a home run. For more protection of fans, an alligator is put in and also trained to fetch balls for reuse in batting practice. Note: Fully trained alligator not required.

Pros: Clear indication of home run, flashy setup, ballpark first (alligator)
Cons: Possible danger with alligator 39 feet high, possible water spills on fans or Manny. Feeding gator could prove dangerous as well.



This is the chalk design. A 2 inch thick layer of chalk is put on top of the shelf so every time a ball hits it, POOF! we see a visible indicator that a ball has made contact with the home run zone.


Pros: Easy to see, easy to find (excess batters box chalk), easy to care for.
Cons: Allergic reactions, extremly messy, anything but rainproof.




This is the hard-surfaced clay prototype. HSCP for short. In this method you layer the shelf with a somewhat gooey hard textured type solid. The top is to be very similar to a hard ceiling. It could also be made out of a type of plastic so that rain wouldn't affect it. The idea is that when the ball hits the shelf it is scuffed as well as left with a yellowing mark. This, despite the tough competition, is personally my favorite idea.

Pros: Leaves a solid mark, and color to show that the ball struck the home run area. Easy to set up, maintain, and pretty foolproof.
Cons: Not many, maybe that after time it would wear down, but could be easiy replaced.

Overall I think Fenway staff should strongly consider either the water/alligator tank type of fix or this one.

Please leave some feedback on what you think of my designs, of maybe other possible ideas.

If any Fenway higher up feels they want to contact me to conference about any designs in this post, or possible buy one my email is CCondardo@gmail.com. Thanks for your time.

Oh yea, Lester is awesome.

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Rolling the dice on Lester

One year ago, he was the most valuable prospect in the Red Sox organization. In Spring Training, there was much clamoring in the Hub for the lefty to break camp with the big club. Now, as the trade deadline looms, the young fireballer with the significantly diminished trade value is joining the club as the second lefty in the rotation and a stopgap replacement until Curt Schilling is able to rejoin the club.

And there couldn't be a more perfect situation for Jon Lester.


Jon Lester showed much promise last season before being shelved due to his cancer scare and subsequent recovery. Many longed for him to take the fifth slot in the rotation coming out of camp with the assumption that he would be able to capture the form we saw at the end of the 2006 campaign. I, along with many others, argued that recovering from cancer was a far cry from the tired arms or balky knees that affect many other rookie pitchers, and Lester would need much more time regaining his form in a low-pressure environment. Thanks to the pleasant suprise that was Julian Tavarez's first half, Lester was afforded that time.

However, the human sideshow that is Tavarez has turned back into a pumpkin, and Lester's call has come. Although I would have liked to see him spend an entire year in Pawtucket to insure the complete recovery of his mental and physical strength, the circumstances in Boston make his transition appropriate. If the Sox were seven games down and searching for someone to save a crumbling rotation, I would be vehemently opposed to the move; but with a relatively comfortable cushion in the East and a confident top-4 in the rotation, the time is ripe for Jon's return.

He has had over 70 innings in Pawtucket and 14 starts to get back in the groove that was stolen from him last fall. His numbers have not been as impressive as they were before his first callup (4-5 in 14 starts, 3.89 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 51 Ks and 31 walks), but many who have spent time with him in Rhode Island say he is chomping at the bit to get back to the bigs, and perhaps this trip will return him to the pitcher we saw last year.

The best case scenario here is that Lester provides a spark to the ballclub and stymies opponents who haven't yet faced him, earning wins for the club as they make the stretch run. The worst case scenario has a poor start or two before yielding his spot in the rotation to Schilling and heading back to Pawtucket. In any case, the lowered expectations have surely given Jon Lester the best possible opportunity to succeed.

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Hot Stove, Cool Music, Dead Team

I think we have a priority problem in Red Sox Nation.

Sox GM Theo Epstein is busy finalizing plans for his Hot Stove, Cool Music concert at Fenway in August. The way his Dead Sox are playing lately, he may want to start the event with a funeral dirge. Theo created this mess and he needs to answer for it.

But there is a reason he isn't spending any time trying to fix this dysfunctional bunch. Thanks to his mismanagement, there is really nothing he can do but strum his guitar and pray.

I don't want to panic, but I do want to be realistic. The Sox are in trouble which becomes more painfully obvious as their lead keeps getting chopped down game by game, like the drops of a Chinese Water Torture.

The Big Tuna, who spent some time down in Foxboro, used to say that you are what your record says you are. Since June 1, the Sox are 20-21, which spells mediocrity with a capital "M."
The Sox are lifeless and stagnant, treading water. With last night's pathetic loss, they have now lost 4 of 7 on this "easy" homestand. They don't have the ability, desire or fire to take advantage of a cupcake July schedule top heavy with home games and sub-.500 opponents. This malaise has allowed the Yankees to crawl out of the crypt and right back into the AL East race.

And the big problem is, the quagmire that Theo has created can not be easily cleaned up.

In 2004, the Sox were floundering in similar fashion at this time of the year. Theo was able to shake things up by trading a brooding Nomar Garciapparra and acquiring Orlando Cabrera, Doug Mientkiewicz and Dave Roberts. However, the way Theo has built this 2007 Edsel, such a bold stroke is not an option.

Everyone agrees that the light hitting, powerless lineup is in need of another bat. But where would you put it?

You're not going to replace Papi, Manny or Varitek. Youkilis, Lowell and Pedoria are your biggest producers so far. Crisp is starting to come on. That leaves the two biggest problems in Lugo (fly ball out with two down and the tieing run on third in the eighth last night) and Drew (harmless ground ball to lead off another fruitless ninth last night). Let's call them Theo's $106 million mistake. Theo will not bring in someone to replace either one of his prized offseason acquisitions. He also seems reluctant to admit what is obvious to everyone , that Wily Mo Pena can't play a lick. And Mirabelli, Wakefield's binky, couldn't hit the ground if he dropped his bat. (As a thought, can they DH for Mirabelli and let Wake hit for himself?)

So much for improving the lineup.

As for the pitching, the Julian Tavarez run clearly is at an end after four putrid performances in a row. Wake is a Jekyll and Hyde and the team desperately needs Schilling back. The relief corps has been a shining light, but when you lose two of three to the Kansas City "AAA" Royals you don't get to use your outstanding middle relief and closer.

So what is Rock Star Theo to do? Maybe get a veteran bat and dump Pena once and for all and perhaps another starter. Either one will cost too much and would probably be a bad move.

So Theo can just sit back, plan his big Rock Concert and do the following:

Pray for Schilling's return.

Hope Lowell and Youk don't fade in the second half as they did last year.

Have faith that Manny and Papi and JD Drew get hot.

Pray that Pedroia doesn't hit the rookie wall.

Say a novena that Beckett, Varitek, Papelbon, Okajima stay healthy.

Tito can shift the batting order around, but that may be akin to rearranging the deck chairs on the Titantic. I know, I can hear you now. "Hey they still have a (insert steadily decreasing single digit number here) game lead.

The fact of the matter is that this is Theo's baby, lock stock and pathetic barrel. He went crying in a gorilla suit to John Henry wanting complete control of the baseball operation and to make the big, bad Larry Lucchino stop questioning his decisions. Well he got his wish. And this is the monstronsity he has constructed. The largest payroll in the history of the Sox that has an on base percentage that will knock your socks off but who can't hit in the clutch or with runners in scoring position to save their lives.

Theo owns this disaster. He will live and die with it. Let's hope it's not the latter.

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